Women's Kim McDonald Memorial 10,000m - 4/28 @ 9:08pm PT

Earlier this season, I asked a prominent coach when his athletes would finally be given the green light to let loose.

“Payton Jordan. No question,” he said.

“Why there,” I naively asked, already knowing the answer.

“Because it’s a place beyond the realm of anything we know, at least, in running. I feel that our training is catered to 95% actual workouts and 5% magic from that track. There’s something special out there.

I had known this coach to be extremely pragmatic, very matter of fact. This conversation was like the time I saw then Minnesota basketball head coach Tubby Smith break into a locker room mosh-pit following a big win. Behind his stoic exterior was someone who just liked to dance to Ke$ha. Who knew?

But for this coach to say something like “magic” is the reason why everyone runs to fast at Payton Jordan is pretty odd. But in a way, he’s also right.


The last time someone used "magic" to win an argument was during the season finale of Lost.

In recent memory, Payton Jordan has been home to some audacious performances. In 2008, Shalane Flanagan broke the American record in the 10k. In 2010, Chris Solinsky did the same (on the men’s side, obviously) in his debut at the distance.

This year, there’s another American hoping for a little Stanford magic in the 10k. Except she’s not going for an American record. And she’s not a pro. You can probably guess who it is.

Oregon’s Jordan Hasay.

This’ll be her second try and the distance and even though it’s at the same venue, the two runs will be drastically different. Back at the Stanford Invitational, Hasay’s race was a mere test of the waters. Now at Payton Jordan, she’s “fully committed.”

“We’re going all in with the 10k,” Hasay told Ken Goe of the Oregonian. “All in” refers to the IAAF “A” standard in the 10,000m, which is 31:45.00.

Here come the guesses, the statistical analysis, conversion calculators, and maybe a call to someone who sleeps under the stands at Hayward Field and saw Hasay and Alexi Pappas do a 6xmile workout after the Team Pepsi Invitational (don't worry, we have a guy).

Whether she runs the standard is not is important because it’s ephemeral. The mark will be a stepping stone for her running career, but it'll only last the year. I want to talk about something a little more everlasting.

Her demeanor.

When we first read “I’m going to take a crack at the ‘A’ standard,” we were surprised. Both Ryan Fenton and I had sworn that we’d read something like that in either 2011 and 2012, but after spending two hours trying to optimize our Google searches and yelling at the Internet, we gave up.

The point is that boldness is rewarded, but it's also a double-edged sword. If you say you’re going to do something, you better do it. If you fall well short, then there’s going to be backlash.

“Shoot for the moon and if you miss the stars too, then be prepared for a ****storm.” doesn’t have the same ring to it.

For Hasay, "winning" could be NCAA titles, finally capturing that elusive NCAA XC crown, hitting the Olympic Trials standard, and on occasion, the IAAF “A” standard.

This particular occasion we’re referring to is this exact time last year. In 2012, the Ducks traveled to The Penn Relays, but Hasay went elsewhere. She instead went to that magical Stanford track for Payton Jordan in hopes of running, in the very least, that Trials “A” standard of 15:35.

Unfortunately, Hasay finished way back in 16th with a time of 15:44.87. Her personal best of 15:37 (from ’11 Mt. SAC) was the best she could muster and it wasn’t good enough for admittance to her home track in June.

When she spoke to her home news outlet following Payton Jordan, her tone wasn’t one of disappointment, but dejection. She had failed.

In the first article from KSBY6, “Hasay told KSBY her main focus for the rest of the season will now be the NCAA season.”

The followup piece titled "Jordan Hasay rethinks plans to make run at 2012 Olympics," Hasay says, “It’s just a lot of pressure this year with the Olympics and just trying to train really hard.”

There’s always been a lot of pressure on Hasay. It just so happens that she’s a member of a flawed system for young athletes.

"Oh, you had incredible success in high school? I bet you’ll be world-class in no time." This problem just isn’t in track, but it’s an ethical topic that cuts into nearly every sport. If a young, promising talent storms onto the scene, we want him or her to compete at the highest level possible; not take the time to foster his or her abilities. Sometimes they're set up to fail and we have no problems criticizing their lack of success (except in track and field media, but that's neither here nor there). 

The difference is whether a young athlete crumbles under the pressure or perseveres. It may have taken four years, but Hasay has finally found the latter.

Her collegiate career up until this last indoor season has been marred with disappointments. If she didn’t win, it seemed as if she had failed. When the Olympics were around the corner, there wasn’t a question of whether she’d try and run the Trials.

The goal in mind was a time on a pedestal. It wasn’t whether she could improve her marks, which had become alarmingly stagnant. It was an Olympic year in Eugene, OR, therefore she has to make the team. It seemed like destiny, but the roar of the Hayward faithful and encouraging tweets can only carry an athlete so far.

Everyone in the community wanted it, but sometimes things just aren’t meant to be. Look at Shalane Flanagan and Kara Goucher at the Boston Marathon: People want them to win so bad, but they can’t do it yet.

Hasay has always had the support, but there’s been something different about her since the end of cross country. Maybe we can’t find this mysterious article because she’s never fully backed the claims of standards and fast times.

Maybe instead of breaking barriers, it’s all about doing the best she can do. Even still, it’s not for herself, it’s for the team.



Watch the first 1:03 of this interview. You tell me the last time when you’ve seen her so composed.

Maybe it's been the success of the Oregon women in the fall, maybe it's the addition of Pappas, maybe it's a change in the coaching staff, but one thing is for certain: This isn't the same girl we saw last summer.

In the past, expectations coupled with losses hit her pretty hard. When she set goals, we never really felt that she was fully committed to the plan. Now, she's more carefree and is definitely reaping the benefits. 

When she says that she’s taking a chance at the “A” standard, we believe her. More importantly, she believes in herself.

TL;DR - Will Hasay Run 31:45?

If romanticized running jargon isn’t your thing, we’ll get right into the nuts the bolts. Does Hasay have a legitimate shot at running the IAAF “A” standard?

At first, we said no. Even though she ran a very controlled 32:46.68 (with huge negative split) her first time out, her peripheral marks don’t indicate anything that’s a minute faster.

According to both the Jack Daniels’ VDOT and McMillan Running Calculators, the equivalent 5k mark for a 31:45 10k is 15:17 - 15:18. Hasay has only run 15:37.29, which is from Mt. SAC in ‘11.

While we were admittedly quick to the jump the gun on this one, there were some very wise voices who chimed in on the subject.

First, forget everything you know about Hasay. She’s no longer a 1500m runner and she’s not even a 5000m runner. Yes, she’s been heralded as both, but they’re not her best events.

Her best event is the event that gives her a shot at either 1) winning an NCAA title or 2) getting an IAAF “A” standard. She’s accomplished neither in her past two events; the 10,000m is her best shot.

With that in mind, the conversion calculators don’t really add up. They may work now and then for the middle distances, but when you’re training primarily for the 10k, the projected times are skewed.

Not to mention we now characterize Hasay as a totally different runner. For all intents and purposes, assume that the 800m and 5k go hand in hand and the 1500m and 10k go together. The first group includes events that make an athlete pay for any mistake. They’re both a grind.

The second group is more free flowing. You can recover in the mile just as you can hold on in the 10k (if you're fit and not totally over your head). As my old coach used to say, “You can fake it to the finish.”

But Jordan isn’t going to have to fake it. If you watched her during cross country, she’s out there just covering moves, not worrying about splits. In the 10k, it’ll be reversed; she’ll be worrying about splits, but not the competition.

“Just give us your prediction, damn it,” you say. Up until this point, we weren’t sold.

Hasay will break 32:00. We’ll predict that she’ll dip under 31:45.

There’s no hard evidence to back up this prediction. I guess we’ll just have to chalk it up to “magic.”


Thanks for stealing five years of my life, Lost.

Who Will Actually Win?

While Hasay tries to latch on to 76.x quarters, who will be up front going for the win?

Kim Smith (PR - 30:35.54)

Kim Smith (now with New Balance) is the fastest on paper and is in fine form. She’s coming off two road 5k wins, both of which have been in Boston.

 When we talked to Smith after the B.A.A. 5k, she said she was returning to the track to run this 10k. The last time she one on the track? In ’09, when she placed 8th at the IAAF World Championships in Berlin (31:21.42).
 
If Smith is going to return to the track, Payton Jordan is a smart choice. Between ’05 and ’07, every time she set foot on Stanford’s track to run a 10k, she set a personal best and national record. Magic, perhaps?

Doricah Obare (PR - 31:37.07)

The Japan-based Kenyan won the Matsue Half in March (71:11) and ran 9:13.60 for 3000m in Yokohama. However, her 10k personal best is from ’10. Still, she should be in the mix, but not necessarily contending for the win.

2004 - 16:29.23
2006 - 16:04.60
2008 - 16:19.28
2009 - 15:56.62
2010 - 15:45.75
2011 - 15:54.49
2012 - 15:24.82
2013 - 15:09.73

Speaking of season bests, all of Williams’ best 10k times of the year have come from Payton Jordan. It’s very safe to assume that she’ll break her PR of 32:03.07 on Sunday. The question is, by how much? If we had to venture a guess (this includes her running in ideal racing conditions, which happens how often at Stanford?!?), we’ll say she runs 31:18.

Note: This article was written April 25th. Our intel proved correct, nice work.

She’s not on the start list, our intel says that both she and her teammate Meaghan Nelson will toe the line at Payton Jordan.

After kicking for home to win NCAA XC, Saina had a lackluster (comparatively) indoor season. She took second in the 5000m (15:33.66) and fourth in the 3000m (9:07.34).

When she began her outdoor campaign, it was at, yes you guessed it, the Stanford Invitational. Saina ran a huge personal best in the 5000m (15:12.05) to take second.

So Stanford has already been kind to Saina, but what about Payton Jordan? One year ago, Saina blasted a 31:15.97 to win the women’s 10k.

If it’s any added bonus, another inside source says she’s in very good 10k shape. If you thought her win last year was impressive, prepare to think again. If everything goes according to plan, don't be surprised her to dip under 31 minutes.

Alvina Begay

Northern Ari

Addie Bracy

Brooks

Sarah Crouch

Zap Fitness

Obare Doricah

Hitachi

Natasha Fraser

PIH

Ayumi Hagiwara

Uniqlo

Jordan Hasay

Oregon

Adrienne Herzog

Brooks

Miho Ihara

Sekisui Kaga

Meghan Nelson

Iowa St.

Marisol Guadalupe Romero Ros

Mexico-FMAA

Betsy Saina

Iowa St.

Yuko Shimizu

Sekisui Kaga

Kim Smith

New Balance

Neely Spence Gracey

Brooks Hanso

Neely Spence-Gracey

Hansons-Broo

Mattie Suver

Brc/Adidas

Lara Tamsett

Melbourne Tr

Hanae Tanaka

Daiichi Seim

Laura Thweatt

Boulder Trac

Aliphine Tuliamuk-Bolton

Wichita Stat

Lisa Uhl

Nike/Aurum