DES MOINES -- Heading into the U.S. Track and Field Championship, the men’s 1,500-meter race is anyone’s for the taking... and there are 47 candidates for 12 spots in the final. The top three in each section along with the next three fastest times will advance to the finals.

No one holds the IAAF “A” standard, yet. The top four athletes at the U.S. Championship will have until July 20 to meet that standard. In a race where place takes precedent, an “A” standard may not be likely in Des Moines.  

The Olympic team that headed to London last year was arguably one the best. When was the last time two Americans placed second and fourth at the Olympic final? One year later, there are no guarantees for any of those three.

Leo Manzano (Unattached) - After becoming the first American silver medalist in the event since Jim Ryun, 2013 was off to a very slow start.

Manzano was never known to be a fast starter. Before last year’s Olympic Trials, he ran 3:36.08 at the Oxy Invitational. This year, he ran 3:37.04 for fourth place behind Will Leer, Galen Rupp, and Andrew Wheating. He's not too far off what he ran a year ago. 

2012
2/11: Mile at the USATF Classic - 3:57.92 for 8th Place
2/26 : 1,500m at USATF Indoor National Championships - 3:48.05 for 1st place
5/18: 1,500m at Oxy HP - 3:36.08 for 4th place
6/2: Mile at Prefontaine Classic - 3:53.07 for 12th place

2013
4/7: Road 5K at Carlsbad 5,000 - 14:57 for 13th place
4/20: Mile at Kansas Relays - 4:00.13 for 2nd place
4/23: Road Mile at Grey and Blue Mile - 4:04 for 3rd place
5/18: 1,500-meter at Oxy HP - 3:37.04 for 4th place
5/25: 800-meter at Adidas Grand Prix - 1:48.89 for 8th place
6/1: Mile at Prefontaine Classic - 4:00.04 for 16th place

Sub out the name and the results are very similar to times Robby Andrews has run. There has not been much chatter of Andrews making the team, but we’re still talking about Manzano’s chances. Why?

Last year, Manzano stepped to the scene as a favorite because of his tactical ability to kick and general fitness. He won the U.S. Indoor Championship off a slow pace and his 3:53 was impressive for an American at the 2012 Prefontaine Classic. Pretty lethal combination.

A year later, his status as a silver medalist is just a title. 

The main reason not to count out Manzano is that he has never been outside the United States’ top three in the 1,500-meter run since 2006. If that's not enough, he managed to beat Matt Centrowitz and Lopez Lomong in a race full of potential that fell flat at Oxy HP. 

Pedigree? Intuition? After the Olympic silver medal and multiple U.S. Championship, it's hard to doubt Manzano.  

Matthew Centrowitz (Nike/Oregon Project): The 23-year-old has the best shot of the three American Olympians to make the national team. Although he has yet to record a 1,500-meter victory this season, Centrowitz skipped the 1:46 barrier to run a 1:45.86 at the Portland Track Festival and heads to Des Moines with momentum on his side. 



Starting off a season fast is not Centrowitz's style. Last year, his best time before the Olympic Trials was 3:37.22 from the Harry Jerome Classic. After the Olympics, he ran 3:31.96 and 3:32.42. 

Going into the United States Championship in 2011, he ran a then-seasonal best of 3:41.73. He would go on to win in Eugene and then take bronze in Daegu. Not much to worry about for a customary slow starter.

Andrew Wheating (Nike/ Oregon Track Club): After last year’s Prefontaine Classic, Wheating was upset with his performance. This year, a similar story line is being followed. The former 800-meter specialist is sticking to the 1,500-meter distance despite being tempted to return to his first love. 

For Wheating, there appears to be a slight identity crisis that manifests itself in injury concern. He’s excited to run fast, but hasn’t consistently hit that 3:30 mark that people equate him with. 

Site editor Mitch Kastoff puts it best saying runners are not as good as their best race or their last race. Their third best race defines them. 

“People are surprised when a 13:15 guy like Tom Farrell or a 3:35 guy like Kyle Merber misses out on NCAAs,” Kastoff said. “I don’t label those guys by their personal bests, because I consider those races extraordinary performances at that time. Look at their next two fastest times.”

In the three years since his 3:30.90 breakthrough in Monaco, Wheating's next best time was his 3:34 in 2011's Paris Diamond League meeting. His 3:35.89 at 2012's Harry Jerome Classic isn't any closer either. 

What about 2013? His best performance comes from the 1,200-meter leg of the Distance Medley Relay at Penn Relays, where he split 2:522 and Centrowitz split 2:53.4. 

Wheating isn’t far off from where he left off last year, but he’s not near his shape from 2010. Do you consider him a 3:30 runner?

Who can break apart the Olympic core?

Will Leer (Nike): He’s been training by himself, but that did not stop the mustachioed master from upsetting a deep field of stars in the "faster" section of the 1,500-meter run at Oxy. He has 5,000-meter strength from early on in the season with the top American finish at the Carlsbad 5000 (13:36) and a personal best win at Mt. SAC Relays in 13:21. That’s all building from his indoor success as he doubled with the 3,000-meter and mile crown at the US Indoor Championships.



There also has to be a chip on shoulder after more than a few close calls to making a national team. Below are Leer's finishes from the past five U.S. Championships:

2007: 5th place at U.S. Champs
2008: 4th place at Olympic Trials
2009: 5th place at U.S. Champs
2011: 5th at U.S. Champs
2012: 12th at the Olympic Trials

Leer has been on the cusp of success to wear a Team USA uniform. 2013 is the year of the success for the ‘stache.

Lopez Lomong (Nike): He’s defeated Centrowitz twice this season. After a stellar indoor season which included the American record in the 5,000-meter run, Lomong was off to a more conservative start to his outdoor season.

The 1,500-meter is a back-up for him as the double with the 5,000-meter run in Moscow is impossible. Bernard Lagat accomplished the double in 2007, but this year both finals are scheduled for the same day. 

As for the Collegiates?

Riley Masters (Brooks): The Oklahoma senior crossed the finish line very disappointed in his 11th place showing at the NCAA championship. After getting tied up with Texas’ Patrick McGregor, Masters and the Longhorn fell in the final 100-meters. The fall had no bearing on the leaders, but Masters was clearly fuming after the finish.

A Brooks singlet could mean new beginnings for the Maine native. He enters with a new professional mindset and may attack the race from the middle of the pack after his last mishap in the back.

Andy Bayer: The 2012 NCAA Champion finished eighth in this year’s final. He has not hit his personal best of 3:37 with his seasonal best being 3:40.43 at the NCAA East Preliminary round. A top five finish wouldn’t be surprising after taking fourth at last year’s Olympic Trials.

He is fully healthy again after a rocky end to his cross-country season. Bayer started off most of his races out in front, but failed to properly execute a successful race as he sat and tried to kick in the NCAA final. Expect him to go out towards the front of the pack in Des Moines, which is closer to his style.

Mac Fleet: The 2013 NCAA Champion is healthy after winning a 1,500-meter final that was determined in the final 400-meters. His closed his last lap in 52.25, which was enough to hold off Air Force’s Zach Perkins. The last Duck to win the NCAA title and then compete at U.S. Champs went on to win. (See Matt Centrowitz above.)

Centrowitz’s personal bests from 2011: 
800-meters - 1:50.91
1,500-meters - 3:41.73

Fleet’s personal bests from 2013:
800-meters - 1:48.70
1,500-meters - 3:40.21

Fleet could contend with Garrett Heath of Saucony and the New Balance duo of Jack Bolas and Craig Miller for the top spots in the second section of the 1,500-meter run. 

Don’t count out fast finishers in the third heat like Wisconsin’s Austin Mudd and Perkins.

London was not even one year ago, but a lot has happened in the last 365 days. Will we see the Olympic 1,500-meter team make it to Moscow or will there be new faces sporting Team USA gear?

  Chris Chavez is a staff writer for Flotrack and a journalism major at Marquette University. He once beat Joey Fatone of NSYNC in a half-marathon. Feel free to to reach him with any questions, comments, or feedback on Twitter or by email.