USA Outdoor Track & Field Championships 2013

Mary Cain Will Make The Team

Jun 22, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff

See: Title.

If you’re satisfied with that statement, then we’ll see you tonight at 4:46pm CT. If you still need some convincing, well that’s why we’re here.

Women's 1500m Final

Name	Personal Best
Shannon Rowbury	4:00.33 ('08)
Gabe Anderson	4:04.84 ('12)
Katie Mackey	4:04.60 ('13)
Hillary Holt	4:11.62 ('13)
Mary Cain	4:04.62 ('13)
Kerri Gallagher	4:12.58 ('13)
Cory McGee	4:10.55 ('13)
Morgan Uceny	4:00.06 ('11)
Sarah Brown	4:05.27 ('13)
Heather Wilson	4:12.58 ('13)
Treniere Moser	4:02.85 ('13)
Amanda Mergaert	4:13.63 ('12)

Before we start the onslaught of Odd Couple references, let us say that the dynamic between Mary Cain and Treniere Moser is worthy of its own reality show. On one hand, you have a 17-year-old starlet who’s so calm in the mixed zone (and in races), that she spits out gems like, “Everyone wants to go to Moscow. My mom wants to go to Moscow.” Me too Mary, me too.

Ziing.

On the other hand, you have a 31-year-old savvy veteran who’s been here a few times. Under coach Alberto Salazar, Moser has seen a wine or scotch type of resurgence. She’s better with age.

The common link between the two (other than the obvious fact that they’re on the same team) is that they’re oozing with confidence. Devastation on the track and smiles in the mixed zone.

The “devastation” is a bit of a hyperbole, but still aligns to the Nike Oregon Project’s unofficial motto of “It’s All About the Last Lap.” Moser and Cain both dropped roughly a 60-second last 400m in their semifinal. It's something we've seen time and time again from the pair.

That’s why we think Cain will be in the top three.

We’ll give you three reasons why she’ll be in one of those spots.

#1: Does anybody remember the USATF Indoor Mile?

Moser may have run faster than Cain this outdoor season, but does anyone remember when Cain took the win in an incredibly tactical mile indoors?

After opening laps of 85.3 for the first 400m and 2:56.54 for 800m, we were on the edge of our seats to see who would make the first move. It actually came from Sara Vaughn, who injected some pace with a 32.x sixth lap, but Cain was always lurking.

Here are her last two laps: 29.27 and 29.34. That’s 58.61 for the last 400m and 1:31.15 for the last 600m. Yes, her winning time of 5:05.68 is laughable, but her world class speed is not. Plus, she beat Moser (who took second) by almost a full second.

#2: She has the strength even when it’s fast (see: Prefontaine 800m)

In Eugene, Cain became the first American high schooler to break 2:00 in the 800m. Her 1:59.51 fifth place finish at Prefontaine set all kinds of records, but her place told us that she can hang when things pace is serious.

Cain's splits were 59.6 (400m), 1:29.7 (600m), and then 1:59.51 at the finish. Not to mention she was sixth with 200m left and almost beat someone named Alysia Montano.

In those last few meters, everyone better hop aboard the Cain Train.

#3: She can close off a fast pace (see: OXY HP)

The real test for Cain came at the OXY HP 1500m. In a race where the goal was the “A” standard, the Bronxville junior wouldn’t be able to hide behind a slow pace.

After 4:10.77 sixth place finish at the Drake Relays, we didn’t know how much faster Cain could run. She had already exceeded all of our expectations. What more could we ask her to do?

How about running 4:04.62. How about running ten seconds faster than any high schooler, ever. How about the fact that if she was a collegian, she’d be ranked number two all-time behind Jenny Simpson? More on her and how her absence from the 1500m (she has the wildcard for her win in ’11) helps Cain’s case.

How about that at the bell, Cain was roughly sat in eighth place. What about with 200m to go? Seventh. 100m? Sixth.

At the finish? Second.

With a last 400m of 63.5 and a last 100m of ~13.8 (the turns at OXY are super wide, so it's hard to get an accurate split), it’s hard to doubt Cain to grab one of those podium spots.

One thing to note is that Brooks’ Katie Mackey held off Cain at OXY, but was dropped by her and Moser in the first semifinal of the women’s 1500m at USAs. Mackey didn’t have third place locked up either as she had to hold off a late-charging Cory McGee (spelled correctly) to grab the last auto spot.

So she’s able to kick when the race is fast or slow. What type of race will happen today? Probably slow.

Since Simpson has opted to run the 5000m and the way the semifinals played out, we don’t see this race being fast. Unlike the men’s race where no one has the “A” standard, seven women have the qualifying time (we’re counting Simpson and Martinez despite the fact that they scratched). Plus, it’ll be hot at 4:46pm CT.

The question is who’ll be knocked off the podium. We don’t think it’ll be Moser. Since her loss to Cain, Moser has made a huge jump to the world level. 4:02.85 at the Prefontaine Classic is scary good.

That leaves one more spot for some renowned kickers. That leaves Mackey, ’09 World bronze medalist Shannon Rowbury, and our dark horse Gabe Anderson. We’re not counting Morgan Uceny, mainly because she was passed by four ladies in the final 100m in her semifinal.

As LetsRun puts it, "If there is a track and field God, then Morgan Uceny will end up on the team." Now is the time to start praying.

Let's talk about the miler who's there when it matters. Rowbury may not have run faster than 4:03.15 in three years (her personal best of 4:00.33 is from ’08, too), but she beat Uceny and Anderson in New York. It looks good on paper, but we all know how that works out in the end.

That leaves Anderson. The fourth place finisher from the '12 U.S. Olympic Trials may once again be the first one out as she’s taken some losses to some fellow finalists. Those races earlier this season didn't help her chances. However, her semifinal in Des Moines did.

Up in the media booth, we overheard a few staff members talking about how Anderson was in trouble as she was boxed in with 250m to go. She must have heard them because lo and behold, a small spot opened up and Anderson showed that lethal kick. If she can find room in the final, except her to exorcise the demons from last year.

Both Alex and I have Cain finishing second. Ryan has her winning. I'm not too religious, but Mary Cain's reason has been my Road to Damascus. I'm a believer.

Will Cain make the team? Yes. Can Cain win an outdoor national title to match her indoor one?

Tune in at 4:46pm CT to find out.