5th Avenue Mile 2013Sep 20, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
Women's 5th Avenue Mile Preview: Simpson, Rowbury, then some big kickers
Women's 5th Avenue Mile Preview: Simpson, Rowbury, then some big kickers
While we highlighted a potential top three and some dark horses in our men’s predictions, we wanted to change things up for the women. We’re sure about the two who will be fighting for the win. But after that are some clever kickers who might try and steal the show. We break it down for you below.
By The Numbers
2 - The number of past 5th Avenue Mile champions in the field. Crowns.
3 - The number of the top 5 fastest American in NYC (Simpson, Rowbury, and Anderson). Quality.
8 - The number of road miles run by Heather Kampf this year. Asphalt.
9 - The number of women who have set 1500m or mile personal bests this year. Prime.
10 - The number of women who are coming off either personal or seasonal bests. Form
4:16.68 - The course record held by PattiSue Plumer from 1990.
As we did with the men’s field, we’ll show you the last five 5th Avenue Mile champions and the race that they had run prior coming to NYC.
2012: Brenda Martinez (4:24.2)
Race Prior: 1st place at the City Games Mile (4:35)
Race Prior to That: 4th in the Rieti 800m (2:00.28)
*2011: Jenny Simpson (4:22.3)
Race Prior: 1st in the Tanger 1500m (4:15.07)
Race Prior to That: 13th in the Brussels 1500m (4:03.68)
* World 1500m Champion
2010: Shannon Rowbury (4:24.12)
Race Prior: 2nd in the Continental Cup 3k (9:04.82)
Race Prior to That: 4th in the Rieti 1500m (4:01.63)
^2009: Shannon Rowbury (4:24.12)
Race Prior: 5th in the World Athletics Final (4:14.18)
Race Prior to That: 3rd in the Rieti 1500m (4:03.46)
^ World 1500m bronze medalist
2008: Lisa Dobriskey (4:18.6)
Race Prior: 2nd in the Pedro’s Cup 1500m in Szczecin (4:10.77)
Race Prior to That: 4th in the World Athletics Final 1500m (4:07.72)
There really isn’t any common trend that is particularly mind-blowing, but we'll look for one anyway.
When Dobriskey won in ’08, she had a huge drop in her 1500m PR from 4:05.42 to 4:00.64 and finished fourth at the Beijing Olympics. When Rowbury won in ’09, she had captured bronze at the World Championships and had almost run a 1500m PR for the second consecutive year in a row.
Side Note: Remember how big ’08 was for her?
Rowbury’s 1500m seasonal bests by the year
2004 - 4:17.41
2005 - 4:14.81
2006 - 4:12.31
2007 - N/A
2008 - 4:00.33 (still her PR)
2009 - 4:00.81
That leaves the reigning World 800m bronze medalist, Brenda Martinez. Though she didn’t qualify for the ’12 Olympic Team in either the 800m (she finished 6th) or the 1500m (she finished 12th), she had run personal bests in both events later that season.
Her win at 5th Avenue was certainly a preview of great things to come in 2013. For the second consecutive season, Martinez PR’d at both the 800m and 1500m, but this time made a championship team and as well all know, earned a bronze medal. We wish she was in NYC to defend her title as her races against Simpson have been pretty phenomenal, but we won’t get greedy. We’ll work with what we have now.
Simpson goes for two, Rowbury goes for a third
When she’s hot, she’s hot. The last time Jenny Simpson was in NYC, she was the World 1500m Champion. Though she lost her title with her second place finish in Moscow, we’d argue that she’s in better shape than in ’11.
Throughout the year, we’d been following Simpson’s devastating last laps. In nearly every race, she's put herself in good position at the bell before trying to run the legs off everyone in the field. The only outlier was in Brussels, where she was caught in the wipe-out at the 1100m mark.
It was really a pity because we thought that Simpson had a real shot to get some end of the season redemption against World Champion Abeba Aregawi.
While Simpson hit the track, it was Shannon Rowbury who surged past the wreckage and slid onto the rail behind the rabbit and Aregawi.
Though she was in prime position, Rowbury didn’t have the necessary final gears in the last 150m and would finish fourth (results above). It’s that kind of top end speed that wins the 5th Avenue Mile. If Simpson can find breathing room and time her kick correctly (like she has in the past), she’ll be untouchable.
If we had to go out on a limb here - and we usually do - we’ll include two more kickers who will try and spoil the party.
Gabriele Anderson
She’s the tenth fastest in the world at 1500m this year (4:01.48 from Monaco) and likes to leave it late. When we were in Boston for the BAA Mile, we thought that she and Brenda Martinez would be the ones to watch if the race went slow - it did and the pair went one-two. Though she finished second there, her last race was a win at the Minnesota Mile.
Still, she's not the safest choice. Though she beat Rowbury at the USA Road Mile Championship back in April, she finished fifth overall. The spread from first (Kate Grace) to Anderson was only a second, perhaps disregarding the whole kicking notion.
Katie Mackey
Full Disclose: Ryan Fenton was just out filming the Brooks Beasts crew in Seattle and came back singing Mackey’s praises. We won’t tell you any of her workouts, but they did pique my interest.
She’s had some tight finishes this earlier this year at Oxy HP (she won a close finish in 4:04.60) and at the London Anniversary Games (third in 4:09.02, but with 100m left, we were sure she was going to take the win).
Hannah England
Fourth at Worlds and finished third back home at the City Games Road Mile last week (4:36). She's always a solid challenger at 5th Ave with third place finishes in '12 and '11, a fourth in '10, and a fifth in '09.
The duo of Zoe Buckman and Susan Kuijken
The two training partners have pushed from a long way out a few times this year and could be a threat. After a long layoff, Kuijken ran a 1500m PR this year and Buckman was seventh in Moscow (she ran a 1500m PR this year, too). It's been a good year for the two internationals.
It’s been a long season, too. They opened their season in February and are most likely running on a bit of steam at this point. Last week at the City Games Mile, Buckman was a non-factor (11th) and Kuijken was near the front for most of the race, but finished fifth as she had no response for a big move made by...
Morgan Uceny is back... in the United States
Welcome back! After one year in the UK, Uceny and Coach Terrence Mahon are moving back to the states. For her final hurrah overseas, Uceny took won her first win of the season at the City Games Mile. Her time of 4:34 isn’t anything too special, but it’s the best she’s looked all year.
If this was Uceny circa 2011 or 2012, she’d be the easy pick here. But it’ll be silver Simpon for the win at this Sunday’s 5th Avenue Mile.
Simpson's win in 2011.
|
Name |
1500m / Mile PR |
Last Race |
| Shannon Rowbury |
4:19.2h (2008) |
4:07.05 (Brussels 1500m, 4th) |
| Jenny Simpson |
3:59.90 (2009) |
4:10.70 (Brussels 1500m, 10th) |
| Gabriele Anderson |
4:01.48 (2013) |
4:22 PR (Minnesota Mile, 1st) |
| Chelsea Reilly |
4:08.77 (2013) |
8:47.34 PR (Rieti 3k, 6th) |
| Hannah England |
4:01.89 (2011) |
2:00.39 SB (Rieti 800m, 4th) |
| Nicole Schappert |
4:06.87 (2012) |
4:36 (GNC Liberty Mile, 4th) |
| Zoe Buckman |
4:04.82 (2013) |
2:00.93 PR (Rieti 800m, 5th) |
| Susan Kuijken |
4:18 (2013) |
8:39.65 PR (Rieti 3k, 4th) |
| Sara Vaughn |
4:08.34 (2012) |
4:39 (Minnesota Mile, 3rd) |
| Katie Mackey |
4:04.60 (2013) |
8:59.41 PR (Rieti 3k, 11th) |
| Heather Kampf |
4:08.37 (2013) |
4:28 PR (Minnesota Mile, 2nd) |
| Morgan Uceny |
4:00.06 (2011) |
4:34 (Minnesota Mile, 1st) |
| Violah Lagat |
4:05.66 (2013) |
8:52.34 PR (Rieti 3k, 10th) |
| Eilish McColgan |
4:09.67 (2013) |
8:47.79 PR (Rieti 3k, 8th) |
| Margherita Magnani |
4:06.34 (2013) |
9:00.25 PR (Rieti 3k, 12th) |
By The Numbers
2 - The number of past 5th Avenue Mile champions in the field. Crowns.
3 - The number of the top 5 fastest American in NYC (Simpson, Rowbury, and Anderson). Quality.
8 - The number of road miles run by Heather Kampf this year. Asphalt.
9 - The number of women who have set 1500m or mile personal bests this year. Prime.
10 - The number of women who are coming off either personal or seasonal bests. Form
4:16.68 - The course record held by PattiSue Plumer from 1990.
As we did with the men’s field, we’ll show you the last five 5th Avenue Mile champions and the race that they had run prior coming to NYC.
2012: Brenda Martinez (4:24.2)
Race Prior: 1st place at the City Games Mile (4:35)
Race Prior to That: 4th in the Rieti 800m (2:00.28)
*2011: Jenny Simpson (4:22.3)
Race Prior: 1st in the Tanger 1500m (4:15.07)
Race Prior to That: 13th in the Brussels 1500m (4:03.68)
* World 1500m Champion
2010: Shannon Rowbury (4:24.12)
Race Prior: 2nd in the Continental Cup 3k (9:04.82)
Race Prior to That: 4th in the Rieti 1500m (4:01.63)
^2009: Shannon Rowbury (4:24.12)
Race Prior: 5th in the World Athletics Final (4:14.18)
Race Prior to That: 3rd in the Rieti 1500m (4:03.46)
^ World 1500m bronze medalist
2008: Lisa Dobriskey (4:18.6)
Race Prior: 2nd in the Pedro’s Cup 1500m in Szczecin (4:10.77)
Race Prior to That: 4th in the World Athletics Final 1500m (4:07.72)
There really isn’t any common trend that is particularly mind-blowing, but we'll look for one anyway.
When Dobriskey won in ’08, she had a huge drop in her 1500m PR from 4:05.42 to 4:00.64 and finished fourth at the Beijing Olympics. When Rowbury won in ’09, she had captured bronze at the World Championships and had almost run a 1500m PR for the second consecutive year in a row.
Side Note: Remember how big ’08 was for her?
Rowbury’s 1500m seasonal bests by the year
2004 - 4:17.41
2005 - 4:14.81
2006 - 4:12.31
2007 - N/A
2008 - 4:00.33 (still her PR)
2009 - 4:00.81
That leaves the reigning World 800m bronze medalist, Brenda Martinez. Though she didn’t qualify for the ’12 Olympic Team in either the 800m (she finished 6th) or the 1500m (she finished 12th), she had run personal bests in both events later that season.
Her win at 5th Avenue was certainly a preview of great things to come in 2013. For the second consecutive season, Martinez PR’d at both the 800m and 1500m, but this time made a championship team and as well all know, earned a bronze medal. We wish she was in NYC to defend her title as her races against Simpson have been pretty phenomenal, but we won’t get greedy. We’ll work with what we have now.
Simpson goes for two, Rowbury goes for a third
When she’s hot, she’s hot. The last time Jenny Simpson was in NYC, she was the World 1500m Champion. Though she lost her title with her second place finish in Moscow, we’d argue that she’s in better shape than in ’11.
Throughout the year, we’d been following Simpson’s devastating last laps. In nearly every race, she's put herself in good position at the bell before trying to run the legs off everyone in the field. The only outlier was in Brussels, where she was caught in the wipe-out at the 1100m mark.
It was really a pity because we thought that Simpson had a real shot to get some end of the season redemption against World Champion Abeba Aregawi.
While Simpson hit the track, it was Shannon Rowbury who surged past the wreckage and slid onto the rail behind the rabbit and Aregawi.
Though she was in prime position, Rowbury didn’t have the necessary final gears in the last 150m and would finish fourth (results above). It’s that kind of top end speed that wins the 5th Avenue Mile. If Simpson can find breathing room and time her kick correctly (like she has in the past), she’ll be untouchable.
If we had to go out on a limb here - and we usually do - we’ll include two more kickers who will try and spoil the party.
Gabriele Anderson
She’s the tenth fastest in the world at 1500m this year (4:01.48 from Monaco) and likes to leave it late. When we were in Boston for the BAA Mile, we thought that she and Brenda Martinez would be the ones to watch if the race went slow - it did and the pair went one-two. Though she finished second there, her last race was a win at the Minnesota Mile.
Still, she's not the safest choice. Though she beat Rowbury at the USA Road Mile Championship back in April, she finished fifth overall. The spread from first (Kate Grace) to Anderson was only a second, perhaps disregarding the whole kicking notion.
Katie Mackey
Full Disclose: Ryan Fenton was just out filming the Brooks Beasts crew in Seattle and came back singing Mackey’s praises. We won’t tell you any of her workouts, but they did pique my interest.
Also, this outfit is awesome.@KatiefMackey for @dtmack sake I'm glad they don't make this in men's pic.twitter.com/VASQLOWzYf
— Jesse Williams (@jesjamdub) September 16, 2013
She’s had some tight finishes this earlier this year at Oxy HP (she won a close finish in 4:04.60) and at the London Anniversary Games (third in 4:09.02, but with 100m left, we were sure she was going to take the win).
Hannah England
Fourth at Worlds and finished third back home at the City Games Road Mile last week (4:36). She's always a solid challenger at 5th Ave with third place finishes in '12 and '11, a fourth in '10, and a fifth in '09.
The duo of Zoe Buckman and Susan Kuijken
The two training partners have pushed from a long way out a few times this year and could be a threat. After a long layoff, Kuijken ran a 1500m PR this year and Buckman was seventh in Moscow (she ran a 1500m PR this year, too). It's been a good year for the two internationals.
It’s been a long season, too. They opened their season in February and are most likely running on a bit of steam at this point. Last week at the City Games Mile, Buckman was a non-factor (11th) and Kuijken was near the front for most of the race, but finished fifth as she had no response for a big move made by...
Morgan Uceny is back... in the United States
Welcome back! After one year in the UK, Uceny and Coach Terrence Mahon are moving back to the states. For her final hurrah overseas, Uceny took won her first win of the season at the City Games Mile. Her time of 4:34 isn’t anything too special, but it’s the best she’s looked all year.
If this was Uceny circa 2011 or 2012, she’d be the easy pick here. But it’ll be silver Simpon for the win at this Sunday’s 5th Avenue Mile.
Simpson's win in 2011.
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