NCAA D1 Cross Country Championships 2013

Flotrack NCAA XC Men's Individual Predictions and Top 40 All-Americans

Flotrack NCAA XC Men's Individual Predictions and Top 40 All-Americans

Nov 20, 2013 by Isaac Wood
Flotrack NCAA XC Men's Individual Predictions and Top 40 All-Americans
Instead of breaking down how each team did at their regional, we're going to focus this week on previewing the National Championships on Saturday. In general, the regional races are not always indicative of a team's fitness level or who their true top seven are. That's why these upcoming previews (men's and women's individual and team previews) will not be talking much about regionals and purely be breaking down why I predicted certain runners where I did.

Click here to view all 256 individual predictions.
Click here to view the men's team predictions.

#1 Kennedy Kithuka (Texas Tech)
This is a no-brainer.

#2 Kemoy Campbell (Arkansas)
Campbell is the best of the rest once Kithuka is taken out of the conversation.

#3 Anthony Rotich (UTEP)
Look for Rotich to take it out fast with Kithuka but get outkicked by Campbell. 


#4 Edward Cheserek (Oregon)
I could get heat for this one, but he is running very well and the few losses he had early came in races where he was not going 100% and Ches is even better at 10k.



#5 Tom Farrell (OK State)
When Farrell is on, he is very good. The 'Pokes always pop one at NCAAs and Farrell will be the one to lead them.

#6 Shadrack Kipchirchir (OK State)
No better follower in the NCAA than Kipchirchir. He is always finishing with a teammate.

#7 Chris O'Hare (Tulsa)
O'Hare is a wildcard because of his wheels. If he is still in the mix with a K to go he could run down a lot of guys.

#8 Paul Chelimo (UNC-Greensboro)
He'll probably lead the first 1-2 K of the race and then hang on from there.

#9 Andrew Colley (NC State)
After watching him crush the field at ACCs, and knowing he always runs well at NCAAs, Colley is an easy choice for a top-10 finisher.

#10 Futsum Zienasellassie (N. Arizona)
Futsum is getting better and better each season and a top-10 finish is no way out of the question for him.

#11 Maksim Korolev (Harvard)
Since his 12th place finish at Paul Short, Korolev has placed 2nd at Wisco, 1st at HEPS and 1st at the Northeast Regional. Korolev was 2nd last season at the NE Regional and finished 201st at NCAAs, but he looks like a different beast this season and he could even
find himself in the top-10.

#12 Jared Ward (BYU)
The now-eligible Ward is a force to be reckoned with. He has a sick base (coming off of a 2:16 marathon debut at Chicago) and will sharpen up nicely for NCAAs where he will be looking to duplicate if not improve from his 14th finish in 2012.

#13 Stanley Kebenei (Arkansas)
The only other man to beat Kemoy Campbell this year besides Kennedy Kithuka, Kebenei is coming off a victory at the South Central Regional. Kebenei took it out hard at Wisco and paid
the price, we'll see if he can hold on this weekend.
 

#14 Soufiane Bouchikhi (E. Kentucky)
One of the must underrated consistent athletes in the NCAA, Bouchikhi is a shoo-in All American and is a big part of the success of the Eastern Kentucky program. Bouchikhi has gone 1st at Panorama Farms Invite, 5th at Wisco, 1st at the OVC Conference meet and 3rd at the Regional (he was the returning champion). He will certainly be in the mix for the majority of the race and will better his 40th place finish in Louisville last season.

#15 Ryan Dohner (Texas)
Another very consistent athlete, Dohner has been one of the better 10k runners in the country for three solid years now. Dohner is a gamer and will be ready to roll at NCAAs.



#16 Brian Shrader (N. Arizona)
Shrader has done nothing for me to believe he is not capable of duplicating his performance from 2012. Especially if he and Futsum can work together in the front pack for the majority of the race.

#17 Jason Witt (BYU)
One of the most improved athletes from 2012, Witt is feeling it this season. With a sick comeback victory at West Coast Conference and impressive finishes at Wisconsin and Griak, Witt has been waiting all year to avenge his second-to-last performance last season.

#18 Scott Fauble (Portland)
Fauble and Witt have been very comparable this season and it makes sense to have them finishing right next to each other here.

#19 Paul Katam (UNC-Greensboro)
Katam is no longer Paul Chelimo's training partner at UNC-Greensboro, as he proved he is just as capable as Chelimo is this past spring on the track where he was runner-up to Lawi Lalang in the 10000m. With as many scalps as he got in that race alone, he has the credibility to be at least top-20 if not better.

#20 Craig Lutz (Texas)
If there is one thing we know about Lutz, it's that he, like teammate Ryan Dohner, is a big time racer when it matters. As a freshman he was 33rd at NCAAs in Terre Haute. This past spring he finished right behind Katam in the 10000m outdoors. He will be looking to redeem his DNF from 2012 with a big time race in Terre Haute where he ran so well two years ago as as freshman.

#21 Luke Caldwell (New Mexico)
One of Joe Franklin's greatest finds from Great Britain, Luke Caldwell is just as talented as many of the athletes listed ahead of him (and in general has a much better 5000m PR-13:29 indoors) and will be right in the thick of things the entire race. Caldwell was 27th in Louisville and is now accustomed to the NCAA cross country scene. Don't be surprised to see Caldwell proving this prediction 
very wrong.

#22 Matt Gillespie (Iona)
The best runner on a very good team. Gillespie will roll this weekend, especially to help his team redeem themselves from their debacle in Louisville last year. Gillespie is a sub-4 miler and sub-14 minute 5k guy who is also very motivated to not only redeem his team, but himself from his DNF in 2012.

#23 Patrick Tiernan (Villanova)
The Australian phenom freshman, Tiernan has only lost to three athletes all season (in a race where he ran competitively) Kemoy Campbell, Stanley Kebenei and Kennedy Kithuka. Tiernan has now won back to back races (Big East and Mid-Atlantic Regional) and has some serious momentum heading into Nationals. If he can keep his head in such a big race, he should be the second freshman finisher.

#24 Kirubel Erassa (OK State)
Erassa was 102nd in 2012 and is so much 
better in 2013 than he was in 2012. He placed 3rd indoors for 3k, 9th outdoors for 5k and was 2nd at Big 12s. He will be ready to roll in Terre Haute.

#25 Blake Theroux (Colorado)
Theroux is very good at running well when he needs to and backing off when it's not as important. He was awesome at Pac-12s a few weeks ago where he finished 3rd in Boulder. Last season in Louisville, Theroux proved his legitimacy on the xc course and he is certainly top-30 quality.

#26 Sean McGorty (Stanford)
Another one of the fabulous freshman class, McGorty looked great at Pre-Nats and should provide Stanford a very solid low-stick. With the experience he gained in Terre Haute, he could end up being the second best freshman in the country. 


#27 Aaron Nelson (Washington)
This could be really wrong as I can see Nelson finishing in the top-20, but I think he looked really 
good early on.  I'm curious to see him do what he did at Wisconsin and Dellinger earlier in the year at Terre Haute this weekend--I hope he does.

#28 Jim Rosa (Stanford)
Finishing 2nd at both Pac-12s and the West Regional, I look like an idiot putting Rosa at 27th. To be fair if you calculate the nine regions and placing second means he's logically looking at an 18th place finish. Rosa was 166th in 2012 after placing 6th at Pac-12s, so I feel like a top-30 finish is certainly fair for him, but don't be shocked to see him in the high teens. 




#29 Parker Stinson (Oregon)
Parker certainly has redemption on his mind from 2012. With an incredibly talented team to train with and all the motivation in the world, Stinson is All-American talented and should get the job done this weekend. 


#30 Matt McClintock (Purdue)
McClintock is a classic case of an untapped high school athlete who exploded once his mileage ramped up in college. He has only improved in almost every race he's run in college. After back-to-back 2nd place finishes at Big 10s and Great Lakes, McClintock will definitely be in the mix at the front for the majority of the race.

#31 John Mascari (Indiana State)
In his back yard and coming off a victory at Great Lakes, Mascari is going to roll. He knows this course better than anyone else in the field.

#32 Tylor Thatcher (BYU)
Thatcher looked very good early on and has struggled a little bit since his individual title at Griak. Regardless of his recent races, Thatcher has made great improvements from 2012 and should at least duplicate his 32nd place finish from 2012 if not better. 


#33 Jeremy Rae (Notre Dame)
Rae is due for a big race. It certainly has been a while in cross country when he really looked sharp and in his senior year and final race on the xc course in Notre Dame uniform he should get it done. Going from 11th at ACCs to 5th at Great Lakes is a good sign of some momentum.

#34 Ben Saarel (Colorado)
One of the top freshman in the NCAA I have had the privilege of watching him run numerous times as a high schooler and once at Pre-Nats. Saarel is a big time racer and is not afraid of big races. Saarel was great at Pre-Nats finishing 9th and under the training of Mark Wetmore he will definitely be prepared to bust something big in Terre Haute. 


#35 Nico Composto (Columbia)
The top-dog on the most improved team in the NCAA, Composto is certainly a fair candidate for an All-American spot. He is coming on at the right time as he looked great at HEPS where he finished 2nd behind Korolev and 10th at the Northeast Regional.

#36 Morgan Pearson (Colorado)
Pearson "shocked the world" with how well he ran at Pre-Nats and when he is running well, he makes the Buffs scary
He was 7th at Pre-Nats in Terre Haute and I am putting a lot of weight on how well they performed on the nationals course because the confidence gained from that is huge. Pearson is a team player and should run well with the title on the line.

#37 Erik Olson (Stanford)
One of the better distance runners on the track in the NCAA last spring, Olson is coming on right now, when it matters most. Olson was 11th at Pac-12s, but 3rd at the West Regional and should play a huge role in helping Stanford overcome some mediocre team finishes the past few years. 


#38 William Kincaid (Portland)
Although he did not run the West Regional, I'm thinking Rob Conner just held him out to keep him fresh for Nationals. If that is the case, Kincaid is a very good cross country runner who was 57th in 2012 and is certainly capable of running the majority of the race with teammate Scott Fauble. If he can roll with Fauble and hang on the last few k, Kincaid should be looking at an All-American day. 


#39 Wade Meddles (E. Kentucky)
A returning All-American, Meddles was exactly 38th in 2012. With the added quality individuals this season in comparison to last year, Meddles will be glad to be in the top-40. He has been good at NCAA finals as the no. 2 man for EKU was 11th on the track for 5000m this past spring. Don't forget he was 3rd at Foot Locker finals as in 2009. 


#40 Matt McElroy (N. Arizona)
A podium team generally needs at least 2-3 All-Americans to get the job done and therefore McElroy should be finding himself somewhere in the top-40s this weekend as the no. 3 man for NAU. 


Individual Predictions
PL	Name	                Team
1	Kennedy Kithuka	        Texas Tech	
2	Kemoy Campbell	        Arkansas	
3	Anthony Rotich	        UTEP	
4	Paul Chelimo	        UNC-Greensboro	
5	Tom Farrell	        OK State	
6	Shadrack Kipchirchir	OK State	
7	Chris O'Hare	        Tulsa	
8	Ed Cheserek	        Oregon	
9	Andrew Colley	        NC State	
10	Maksim Korolev	        Harvard	
11	Jared Ward 	        BYU	
12	Stanley Kebenei	        Arkansas	
13	Soufiane Bouchikhi	E. Kentucky	
14	Luke Caldwell	        New Mexico	
15	Futsum Zienasellassie	N. Arizona	
16	Ryan Dohner	        Texas	
17	Brian Shrader	        N. Arizona	
18	Jason Witt	        BYU	
19	Scott Fauble	        Portland	
20	Paul Katam	        UNC-Greensboro	
21	Craig Lutz	        Texas	
22	Matt Gillespie	        Iona	
23	Patrick Tiernan	        Villanova	
24	Kirubel Erassa	        OK State	
25	Blake Theroux		Colorado	
26	Sean McGorty 		Stanford	
27	Aaron Nelson		Washington	
28	Jim Rosa		Stanford	
29	Parker Stinson		Oregon	
30	Ammar Moussa		Colorado	
31	John Mascari		IN State	
32	Tylor Thatcher		BYU
33	Jeremy Rae		Notre Dame
34	Ben Saarel		Colorado
35	Nico Composto		Columbia
36	Morgan Pearson		Colorado
37	Erik Olson		Stanford
38	William Kincaid		Portland
39	Wade Meddles		E. Kentucky
40	Matt McElroy		N. Arizona
41	Isaiah Bragg		Air Force
42	Jimmy Clark		Florida	36
43	Andrew Springer		Georgetown	
44	Matt Johnsen		Lamar	
45	Martin Hehir		Syracuse	
46	Malachy Schrobilgen	Wisconsin	
47	Mike Atchoo		Stanford
48	Mark Parrish		Florida	
49	Craig Nowak		OK State	
50	Jannis Topfer		Illinois
51	Matt McClintock		Purdue
52	Tyler Udland		Princeton	
53	Mason Ferlic		Michigan	
54	Shane Quinn		Providence	
55	Pierce Murphy		Colorado	
56	Mac Fleet		Oregon	
57	Jake Sienko		Columbia	
58	Steve Flint		BYU	
59	James Leakos		Harvard	
60	Solomon Haile		Arkansas	
61	Martin Grady		Notre Dame	
62	Ryan Walling		North Carolina	
63	Nathan Weitz		N. Arizona	
64	David Perry		Portland	
65	Joseph Manilafasha	OK State	
66	Thomas Curtin		VA Tech	
67	Luke Baker		Georgia	
68	Alejandro Arroyo Yamin	Princeton	
69	Kyle King		Virginia	
70	Will Geoghegan		Dartmouth	
71	Kieran Clements		Iona	
72	Jason Crist		Indiana	
73	Sam McEntee		Villanova	
74	Adam Bitchell		New Mexico	
75	Josh Hardin		N. Arizona	
76	Mohamed Hrezi		Iowa State	
77	Michael Van Voorhis	Wisconsin	
78	Thomas Awad		Penn	
79	Brian Doyle		Providence	
80	Tanguy Pepiot		Oregon	
81	Robert Molke		Syracuse	
82	Thomas Gruenewald	BYU	
83	Charlie McDonald	Portland	
84	Eric Causey		San Francisco	
85	Daniel Everett		Columbia	
86	Marc Scott		Tulsa	
87	Peter Okwera		Tennessee	
88	Ben Toroitich		E. Kentucky	
89	Daniel Clorley		Iona	
90	Chris Galvin		Texas	
91	Pat Zacharias		New Mexico	
92	Mark Beams		Michigan	
93	Andy Heyes		Tulsa	
94	Sam Pons		Princeton	
95	Thijs Nijhuis		E. Kentucky	
96	John Bleday		Dartmouth	
97	Thomas Porter		Virginia	
98	Alex Hatz		Wisconsin	
99	Hugh Dowdy		Colorado	
100	Danny Martinez		Portland	
101	Christian Meyer		Colorado State
102	Tom Curr		Butler	
103	Ty McCormack		Auburn	
104	Carl Smith		Indiana	
105	Edward Crawford		NC State	
106	Jonathan Nelson		BYU	
107	Shane Moskowitz		OK State	
108	Jake Leingang		Oregon	
109	John Gregorek		Columbia	
110	Bryant Blahnik		Florida State	
111	Caleb Rhynard		Michigan State	
112	Trent Lusignan		South Dakota St. 	
113	Chris Bendtsen		Princeton	
114	Griff Graves		Syracuse	
115	Joe Whelan		Syracuse	
116	Jeff Howard		Boise State	
117	Ben Connor		Providence	
118	Ryan Poland		Portland	
119	Ryan Barrus		Southern Utah	
120	Brian Gohlke		OK State	
121	Tom Purnell		Harvard	
122	Evan Esselink		Indiana	
123	Ryan Urie		Syracuse	
124	Zach Herriott		Virginia	
125	John Raneri		North Carolina	
126	Reed Kamyszek		Syracuse	
127	Connor Winter		Colorado	
128	Ben Larson		Colorado State	
129	JR Ricker		Indiana	
130	Rob Finnerty		Wisconsin	
131	J.P. Malette		Notre Dame	
132	Caleb Hoover		N. Arizona	
133	Matthew Melancon	Oregon	
134	Tyler Byrne 		Louisville	
135	Garrett Zans		Wyoming	
136	Jacob Thomson		NC State	
137	Spencer Gardner		BYU	
138	Chris Frias		Cal Poly	
139	Sean Stam		New Mexico	
140	Ambrose Maritim		E. Kentucky	
141	Andrew Goodman		Colorado State	
142	Jordan Williamsz	Villanova	
143	Alex Muntefering	Colorado State	
144	Morsi Rayyan		Michigan	
145	Jake Byrne		Iona	
146	Robby Nierman		Indiana	
147	Ole Hesselbjerg		E. Kentucky	
148	Will Geiken		Harvard	
149	Matt Fischer		Penn State	
150	Adam Visokay		Virginia	
151	Patrick Corona		Air Force	
152	Reid Buchanan		Kansas	
153	Ernest Kibet		Louisville	
154	Ryan Pickering		Oregon	
155	Jacob Morgan		Colorado State	
156	Zach Perkins		Air Force	
157	Pat Schellberg		North Carolina	
158	Max Straneva		Syracuse	
159	Mark Pinales		Texas	
160	Robert Denault		Villanova	
161	Jacob Naylor		Wisconsin	
162	Julian Saad		Providence	
163	Brandon Lord		Georgia	
164	Danny Thater		Tulsa	
165	Charlie Sparks		Georgia	
166	Craig Hunt		Central Conn. St. 	
167	Rorey Hunter		Indiana	
168	Alex Brill		Wisconsin	
169	Matt Miller		Belmont	
170	Ash Harrell		Lamar	
171	Tyler Mueller		Lehigh	
172	Steve Mangan		Dartmouth	
173	George Parsons		NC State	
174	Eddie Garcia		Florida	
175	Elmar Engholm		New Mexico	
176	Isaac Presson		North Carolina	
177	Wesley Gallagher	Northeastern	
178	Isaac Spencer		Texas A&M	
179	Andy Trouard		N. Arizona	
180	Tim Rackers		Tulsa	
181	Garrett Sweatt		Stanford	
182	Michael Clevenger	Notre Dame	
183	Joe Kotran		Columbia	
184	Chris Enriquez		Long Beach St. 	
185	Kevin Dooney		Yale	
186	Sam Roberson		NC State	
187	Drew Paisley		Virginia	
188	Ben Flanagan		Michigan	
189	Ross Matheson		New Mexico	
190	Tyler Stutzman		Stanford	
191	Ethan Heywood		Iona	
192	August Pappas		Michigan	
193	Michael Mansy		NC State	
194	Thomas Madden		Virginia	
195	Riley Coates		Air Force	
196	Kelton Cullenberg	Maine	
197	Eliot Myers		Air Force	
198	Joe Sansone 		North Carolina	
199	Gabe Gonzales		Arkansas	
200	Harvey Dixon		Providence	
201	JL Hines		Florida	
202	Will Firth		Rice	
203	Adam Palamar		Tulsa	
204	Matt McDonald		Princeton	
205	Brian Basili		Villanova	
206	Chris Allen		Harvard	
207	Gavin Owens		Air Force	
208	Cory Glines		Michigan	
209	Justin Brinkley		Stanford	
210	Silas Talbot		Dartmouth	
211	Matt Schick		NC State	
212	Chris Foley		Virginia	
213	Will Nation		Texas	
214	Erwin Leysen		E. Kentucky	
215	Cale Wallace		Arkansas	
216	Eddie Owens		Princeton	
217	Jack Boyle		Columbia	
218	Collin Smith		Texas	
219	Kurt Ruegg		Harvard	
220	Jake Kildoo		Notre Dame	
221	Cody Wells		Portland	
222	Tim Gorman		Dartmouth	
223	Steven Spevacek		Georgia
224	Patrick Rono		Arkansas	
225	Matt Valeriani		North Carolina	
226	Jacob Erschen		Wisconsin	
227	Henry Sterling		Dartmouth	
228	Zack Sims		Georgia	
229	James Yau		Michigan	
230	Charles Perkins		Air Force	
231	Brendan Hoban		Georgia	
232	Carlos Miranda		Florida	
233	Walter Schafer		Notre Dame	
234	Adam Cotton		Harvard	
235	Mac Reynolds		Florida	
236	Dylan O'Sullivan	Dartmouth	
237	Owen Skeete		Indiana	
238	Scott Morgan		North Carolina	
239	Nolan Fife		Indiana	
240	Jefferson Abbey		Colorado State	
241	Patrick Liesewicz	Notre Dame	
242	Liam Hillery		Providence	
243	Sid Vaughn		Georgia	
244	Dennis Hodapp		Tulsa	
245	Brett Kelly		Princeton	
246	Donovan Torres		New Mexico	
247	Andrew Kowalsky		Iona	
248	Alex Tully		Villanova	
249	Harry Warnick		Villanova	
250	Mike O'Dowd		Iona	
251	Ben Golestan		Columbia	
252	Lukas Gemar		Harvard	
253	David Flynn		Arkansas	
254	Trevor Crawley		Providence	
255	Adam Hartman		Colorado State	
256	Harsha Torke		Florida