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Nike Cross Nationals NXN 2013

NXN Boys Individual Preview: The favorites, the dark horses, and the Midwest

NXN Boys Individual Preview: The favorites, the dark horses, and the Midwest

Dec 5, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
NXN Boys Individual Preview: The favorites, the dark horses, and the Midwest
Last year’s final entry about the Nike Cross Nationals individual race was titled, “Why No One Makes Bets on Cross Country Races.” To be more specific, I meant “high school cross country national championships.” To be even more specific, I meant “high school cross country national championships in the mud.”

Although it was originally created to host a national team championship, Nike Cross Nationals has evolved into something of an individual championship, too. Though the girls race will feature a three-way battle, trying to pick the favorites in the boys race isn’t as easy (but picking the winner proved just as tough).

Before we get to our predictions, we want to say something about the conditions. Though everyone is clamoring how it’s some sort of Pacific Northwest Miracle that it’s not raining in the days before NXN, it still rained a bunch earlier this week.


Expect some tough footing, literally.

We breakdown the boys individual race at NXN into groups of two: The two favorites on paper, two big-time performances, two strong Midwesterners, and two dark horses.

The Favorites - Cerake Geberkidane and Tanner Anderson

At the beginning of the season, we told you to believe the hype. Weeks later, Cerake Geberkidane (CO) is a huge favorite to win NXN.

What we like: He’s gone undefeated all year and runs without caution.
What we don’t like: He runs without caution. For some like let's say Sarah Baxter, you can just run away from the field at Portland Meadows. But for others, it’s a recipe for a big pre-race favorite thinking that he or she has to run away from the field. On the hard conditions at Portland Meadows, it might a check too big to cash.


His race at NXN Southwest was not his best.
Photo: Milesplit.com

While we’ve been talking about the cold weather, we might as well mention someone who’s red-hot. Tanner Anderson (WA) has found his postseason form and has been on a roll for the past month. After his win at NXN Northwest, he’s our other outright favorite to win.

What we like: After taking some early season losses, Anderson won the Washington State Championship and the aforementioned NXN Regional. If you thought those times weren’t legitimate, he’s also run 14:33.62 for 5k on the track.
What we don’t like: Nothing, really. This is a lame copout, but the North Central Indian has been rock solid as of late. If you want to learn more, here is Milesplit's interview with Anderson.

The Guys You Can Count On - Estevan De La Rosa and Kai Wilmot

At the beginning of the season, we were hyping up Estavan Da La Rosa (CA). After his performance at the Woodbridge Classic, we had him ranked as high as third in the Saucony Elite 50.

Then things started to take a turn for the worse. Almost a "drop-off-the-watch-list" sort of worse.

But when Arcadia needed their frontrunner the most, De La Rosa came through in the clutch at the California State Meet and finished a close runner-up to Tal Braude (who isn't running NXN?).

This isn’t the first time he’s come up big. Last year at NXN, De La Rosa defied the California stereotype and took second in the mud. He then went on to win the USATF Junior Olympic XC Championship, placed sixth at the famed Great Edinburgh Race, and finished eighth at the USA XC Championships.

What we like: He’s a pure cross country dude from California.
What we don’t like: He’s had some poor races this season, but we wonder if he had some sort of injury or illness bug.


Arcadia boys head toward national title defense at 2013 CIF State XC Championships.
Possible setbacks aside, there’s another big contender who’s gone through some big injuries. He’s persevered for his team, too.

Kai Wilmot (WA) is another North Central stud who always seems to be on the brink of something big. But over the last year, injuries and setbacks have left him on the sideline. Occasionally.

Last fall, we predicted that North Central would finish third if the then injured Wilmot ran. He did compete, finished 32rd, was the team’s #2 runner (behind Anderson), and helped North Central earn a spot on the podium with a third place team finish.

Since then, he’s had a whole bunch of hip problems, but looks to be over his injury woes. Runnerspace’s Doug Binder had an excellent profile of Wilmot here.

What we like: We'd like him to stay healthy so he can keep being a baller.
What we don’t like: Him and Anderson have traded wins this fall and he’s been on the “losing” side as of late. Still, we think he’d prefer a team win to an individual one.

The Midwest is in the House - Addison DeHaven and Obsa Ali

If we want to continue stereotyping regions, then the athletes from the Midwest always seem to get a boost at NXN.

Rather than list what we like / don’t like, here are some things we know about Addison DeHaven (SD) according to our resident South Dakota running expert Alex Lohr (who is en route to Portland, OR right now):

- He was the only sophomore to qualify for NXN two years ago. Talent.
- He’s the son of South Dakota State University’s Head Coach Rod DeHaven. You know, the Rod DeHaven that won the 2000 Olympic Trials. Genetics.
- He just ran a course record time to beat another big rival from the Midwest, who is also vying for the win.

Earlier this year at Roy Griak, Obsa Ali (MN) got the best of DeHaven. Nearly two months later at NXN Heartland, it was Ali who took the loss.

Although we weren’t in attendance, Milepslit’s Jesse Coy gave us the feel that we were there for the “The Thriller in Sioux Falls.” Biggest takeaway from the recap? Ali still made it close. Though he gives credit to DeHaven’s big finishing kick, it’s not like Ali should be totally discounted after just one loss.

What we like: He also finished 10th last year at NXN.
What we don’t like: The loss to DeHaven.

The Dark Horses - Mike Brannigan and Tony Russell

There’s nothing else to say about Mike Brannigan (NY) other than, “Wow.” If you haven’t read these stories yet, do yourself a favor and spend a few minutes reading about the Northport junior whose life was transformed by running:


What we like: Everything. But seriously - he won NXN NY in 15:29, which was 2-seconds off the course record. There’s a storybook here that could have an incredible ending.
What we don’t like: Nothing. Move on.


Brannigan? More like The-Man-igan.
Photo: Milesplit.com.

In our girls team preview, we mentioned that we once again picked Great Oak to finish second despite their disappointing finish last year. To keep that theme going, we’re going to say that Tony Russell (PA) will hopefully have a big day, too.

Last year, he thought that Russell might finish among the top 10. His final place began with 10... and ended with a 6. 106th. Woof.

Just like the girls from Great Oak, we think that Russell has learned from last year and will be prepared for this year’s competition. Other than the ghost of 2012 propelling him to a better finish, Russell has been solid this season as he's taken wins at the Manhattan Invitational, PA State Championship, and NXN Northeast.

Though there are a few others I could have chose as my second dark horse pick (Connor McMillan, Andrew Rafla, Wolfgang Beck, or Bryce Millar), it'd be cool to see Russell bounce back one year later.

Prediction: NXN is a beast to predict. Though it’s tough to separate the trio of Brannigan, Anderson, and Geberkidane, we think it’ll be Anderson who’ll take the win.

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