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Rupp won't break the American 5k record

Rupp won't break the American 5k record

Jan 15, 2014 by Mitch Kastoff
Rupp won't break the American 5k record


Let’s play a little devil’s advocate, shall we?

If you’re a realist (or, for some, a pessimist), here’s why the Nike Oregon Project’s Galen Rupp won’t break the American indoor 5k record. If you’re more of an optimist, here’s why Rupp will break the record. Choose a side.

If you just want some background information on the record or want to know why coach Alberto Salazar thinks that this will be the “easiest” of the three American records to break, check out our “optimist” preview that's linked above.

Otherwise, I just want to separate the wheat from the chaff and get to why Rupp will not break the American 5k indoor record.

#1: The fastest 5k ever run in January was 13:10.98 by Haile Gebrselassie

Historically speaking, January isn’t really known for fast 5Ks. The monthly record is held by The Emperor Gebrselassie, which is listed both above. In terms of general 5k marks, it isn't anything special. If Haile would have run that time outdoors, it would have ranked in 1249th all-time. Woof.

But the fact that he ran it in January is impressive. Most athletes are building their base during this period and are rarely looking to run fast.

The most surprising statistic? Take a look at the next four fastest marks run in the month of January. Those are some slow January 5Ks, but on the plus side, go John Gregorek!

21 13:10.98 Haile Gebrselassie ETH 18.04.73  1 Sindelfingen     27.01.1996
48 13:20.8  Emiel Puttemans    BEL 08.10.47  1 Paris            10.01.1976
56 13:23.08 Alberto Salazar    USA 07.08.58  1 East Rutherford  23.01.1982
82 13:27.86 Richard Nerurkar   GBR 06.01.64  1 Boston           28.01.1989
93 13:29.3  John Gregorek      USA 15.04.60  1 Boston           20.01.1985
 
#2: Rupp has only run under 13:07.00 a total of four times

It’ll be a huge outlier if Rupp crack’s his top ten fastest 5k marks on Thursday. He’s only broken 13:07.00 four times and they all came at Diamond League Meetings. While it’s not the sterile environment of a rabbited record attempt, they were all still fast races.

But on a more important note, they were all outdoors. In terms of his personal top 10, Rupp’s indoor PR ranks ninth among all of the 5Ks he’s ever run.

Again, this race will have to be something special.

Rupp's top ten 5k marks (via tilastopaja.org)
12:58.90    3 Eugene OR 2 Jun 2012
13:01.37    5 Bruxelles 6 Sep 2013
13:05.17    6 Monaco 19 Jul 2013
13:06.86    2 Birmingham 10 Jul 2011
13:07.35    12 Zürich 19 Aug 2010
13:08.69    6 Eugene OR 1 Jun 2013
13:09.50    9 Zürich 30 Aug 2012
13:10.05    9 Gateshead 10 Jul 2010
13:11.44i    2 Birmingham 19 Feb 2011
13:14.21i    4 Boston MA 6 Feb 2010

#3: His indoor season opener last year was sub-par

Last winter, when we heard that Rupp was going to take a shot at the American indoor mile record, we were fairly surprised. We knew the former Oregon Duck had wheels, but not those kind of wheels.

Those who were “in the know” had told us some of the workouts he had done before the season started and the record attempt started to make sense. Then he opened his season at the University of Washington’s Indoor Preview and, well, it didn’t go as planned. Rupp ran 3:57.15, which had us question our inside sources.

Then roughly two weeks later, he made the trip across the country and shed some truth on all of our speculation with his 3:50.92 run.

With all of that in mind, Rupp has yet to - and pardon me for saying this -  run a “rust-buster.” I won’t list off any of the cliches, but running an opener is important. Whether it’s a mental or physical thing, a season opener puts you back in the racing atmosphere by giving you a benchmark.

From there, you can make changes. Without it, there’s no way to tell what’ll happen.

Unless Rupp has run a simulated race in practice, in which case, disregard everything I just said.

#4: It might be a long, lonely run

Here’s the scenario. We know that Cam Levins, Sam Chelenga, and Rupp are entered in the race. Levins should run the Canadian record of 13:25.87, so we won’t go into that question.

The issue is whether Rupp will have help over that last 2000m. Boston University’s Rich Peters will tow the field through 3000m in roughly 7:56, but from there, it’s every man for himself.

We figure Levins will be a step behind Rupp and aren’t sure of Chelenga’s fitness. If that’s the case, it’ll be Rupp and the BU crowd for perhaps the last 800m.

That’s what will make or break the record attempt.

We should mention that the last time Chelenga and Rupp were in a record attempt, it was Chelenga who came out on top. I'm talking about the famed 2010 Payton Jordan 10k, where Chris Solinsky would stun the running world and become the American record holder.

If an American record happens this Thursday in Boston, we won't be as stunned as we were in Palo Alto nearly four years ago. Still, breaking 13:07 will surpise the pessimist in us. The optimist, on the other hand, thinks it'll happen.


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