We’ve reached the middle of August, and at this point cross country is mere weeks away. After such a thrilling 2013 season, the hype heading into the 2014 campaign is at an all time high. Edward Cheserek returns following his historic freshman season, and the battle for the women’s individual crown is wide open. We’re still months away from Terre Haute, but here are 5 burning questions for NCAA XC 2014 that we can’t wait to answer…

Will Edward Cheserek Ever Lose Again?

After one of the best NCAA seasons in history, Edward Cheserek returns for his highly anticipated sophomore season as the favorite to repeat in Terre Haute. Ches shocked the world with his NCAA XC title in 2013 over heavily favored Kennedy Kithuka, and became the first Oregon frosh to win an individual XC title. We expect more of the same from him this year, as both Kithuka and Lawi have turned pro, leaving everyone else behind him in a fight for 2nd place. While even the best have off days, I would be shocked if Cheserek loses again in a Oregon uniform. 
 

Will the Foot Locker curse be broken?

Aisling Cuffe was 4th in Terre Haute last year, and enters 2014 as one the favorites. Without Abbey D on the scene, the task to break the Foot Locker curse seems attainable for Cuffe. By now, we all know that no girls FL champion has ever won a NCAA XC title, and Cuffe will have one last shot this season to break cross country’s version of the Billy Goat. 

Her competition will be Boise State’s Emma Bates, who comes into 2014 fresh off of her outdoor 10K title. Bates has improved remarkably since she arrived at Boise in 2010, finishing 2nd in Terre Haute last year in her first NCAA XC appearance.

Kate Avery from Iona will also put up a fight in November. Avery was 3rd at NCAAs last season, but didn’t have as strong of track season as either Cuffe or Bates. Luckily, cross and track are two different animals, and Avery will be back in the mix this fall.

Will the Buffaloes repeat?

The Colorado men dominated in Terre Haute last season, and they may be even better in 2014. Ben Saarel (9th), Morgan Pearson (17th), Blake Theroux (23rd) and Pierce Murphy (39th) are all returning All-Americans, and the Buffs get Jake Hurysz back after he redshirted last season. Hurysz finished 32nd in 2012 and has a 13:38 5K PR. 

Ammar Moussa and Hugh Dowdy will battle for the 6th/7th spots, with Moussa still looking to live up to hype he made for himself in high school. Although Moussa was the all important 5th man on Colorado’s championship team last year, he will have to place better than 95th this year to be in the top-5 this season. 

The Buffs will face some heat this season from a team in their own conference. Stanford won the Maksim Korolev lottery this spring, and will have the 3rd and 5th place finishers from NCAA XC. Korolev and Jim Rosa form one of the best 1-2 punches in country, and should be very low sticks in Terre Haute. After redshirting last season, Jim’s brother Joe Rosa ran 13:31 at NCAA outdoor, and should be a top-15 finisher in 2014. Sean McGorty had an off day at NCAAs but his 5th place finish at Pre-Nats shows that he is more than capable of being Stanford’s #4. McGorty ran 13:37 this spring and has dark horse potential. 

Things will shake up throughout, but Colorado will always have the Wetmore Factor. Coach Wetmore  has his Colorado squads ready in November, and Stanford has yet to prove that they can put it all together on the right day.  

Top Freshman?

It’s hard to predict who will win the top frosh honor because the transition from high school to college is just that, a transition. It takes time to get used to the college lifestyle and training is on a whole other level. That being said, I’ll give you my best shot.

Sarah Baxter was one of best high school XC runners the last two years, and she joins an Oregon team that finished a disappointing 14th last season. Baxter was injured this spring, but will return and be someone capable of a top-10 finish. 

Baxter’s hope for the top frosh honor will be heavily challenged by Stanford freshman Elise Cranny. Cranny beat Baxter at NXN last year, and is coming off an impressive 4th place finish in the 1500 at World Juniors. In that race, Cranny was the top American, and took down Alexa Efraimson as well. Cranny will benefit greatly from teammate Aisling Cuffe, who will be a strong training partner in front of her. Baxter won’t be so lucky, as she will be Oregon’s #1 the moment she steps on campus.   

Blake Haney joins an Oregon Ducks squad that finished 5th last year. Haney finished 2nd at NXN in 2013, but it is his track PRs that are most impressive. Haney sports a 3:44 PB, and that speed has coach Andy Powell salivating over his new recruit’s range. Haney won the all important Arcadia 3,200m in scintillating fashion, running 8:46, the fastest time in the country last season. 

While track times don’t always translate, Haney has a strong cross resume that would put him in top-20 consideration. 

Challenging Haney for top frosh honors will be two Wisconsin Badgers. Kai Wilmot may not have the track pedigree of Haney, but he beat him at NXN, winning the race in a course record time of 15:00. Wilmot won that race after placing 32nd the year before. 

Fellow Washington native and new Badger Joe Hardy should also contend. Hardy was the 2012 WA State XC champion, and most recently won the 3A 3,200m title in 8:55.11.

Mick Byrne has never shied away from redshirting a freshman if they are not ready to contribute immediately, however this Wisconsin squad needs both Wilmot and Hardy this season. 

I still think Haney comes out on top because of the talent he has to train with. No disrespect to Wisco, but Haney gets to run with Cheserek, Eric Jenkins everyday. That makes two training partners with identical 13:18 PRs, and puts Haney squarely in position to be top frosh. 

Who Wins the Battle of Michigan?

Two of the best women’s teams in the country are both in the great state of Michigan. Michigan and Michigan State return huge portions of their teams from last season, with the Wolverines returning their entire top-5 and the Spartans returning their top-4 harriers. 

The Michigan women finished 4th last year, led by freshman Erin Finn. Finn was 30th in Terre Haute, but was even better on the track this spring. Her 15:26 at Payton Jordan was a school record, and was 26 seconds faster than what she ran in indoor. Finn has been improving on a per race basis, and with a year under her belt she should be in the top-10 in November. 

Finn isn’t the only weapon in the Wolverines arsenal. Juniors Shannon Osika and Taylor Manett finished back to back in 2013, 56th and 57th, respectively. Osika was 119th in 2012, and her improvement helped the team finish higher in 2013 after losing four of the top-5 to graduation in 2012. Senior-to-be Brook Handler was 64th in Terre Haute, but just finished 6th in 1500 at NCAA outdoor. According to our very own Meg Bellino, Handler is super fit right now and has top-30 potential. 

Also returning will be Taylor Pogue, the Wolverines #1 before she went down with an injury right before the conference meet. She will most likely be supplanted by Finn this year, but if Pogue can get herself back to pre-injury form, she could help this talented corps in November. 

The Spartans are led by senior-to-be Leah O’Connor. O’Connor just missed out on All-American honors last season, finishing 44th in helping her squad finish 6th. O’Connor won the steeple at NCAA outdoor, running a big PR of 9:36 and winning by an astounding 7 seconds. The huge confidence boost that comes with an NCAA title will help her improve drastically on the grass. O’Connor’s steeple success will carry her into the top-15. 

After Leah, the Spartans return Rachele Schulist and Katie Landwehr, 50th and 51st last year. The Spartans #2 and #3 may have finished right next to each other, but their paths to the finish line could not have been more different. Schulist fell back 16 places after the 3K, while Landwehr improved 16 spots following the halfway point. Although the Spartans seemingly broke even, Schulist will need to run steady to save points against their in-state rival. 

These two squads will both compete for a National Title. Michigan has the advantage of Erin Finn being a guaranteed low stick, while Michigan State will need Leah O’Connor to put herself in the top-20. Team battles always come down to the #5 runner, and my guess is that Anna Pasternak of Michigan brings the title home to Ann Arbor.

Pre-season camps are underway, and soon enough meet weekends will be in full swing. We can't wait for the September 27th weekend, when races start counting for the Kolas Calculator.