Way Too Early 2015 XC Predictions

Way Too Early 2015 XC Predictions

Nov 28, 2014 by Lincoln Shryack
Way Too Early 2015 XC Predictions


While the 2014 NCAA XC season just wrapped up this past Saturday, we can’t help but look towards next year. Both the Colorado men and the Michigan State women will return squads capable of winning again, but they will face stiff competition from the teams that finished behind them in Terre Haute. On the individual side, both Edward Cheserek and Kate Avery will return in 2015 after dominating the NCAA competition this year, and each will be the odds-on-favorites to break the tape once again next season. With indoor and outdoor on the horizon, plus a summer of training to go before next fall, these are the way too early predictions for NCAA XC 2015.  

Colorado v. Stanford will be legendary


Will Colorado get the 3-peat, or will Stanford spoil their fun?

Colorado will enter 2015 as the favorites after winning consecutive NCAA titles, even though they lose Blake Theroux and Jake Hurysz to graduation. The Buffaloes return Ammar Moussa, Ben Saarel, Connor Winter, and Pierce Murphy from this year’s championship team that scored just 65 points, plus they get Morgan Pearson (17th in 2013) back after he redshirted this season. The Buffaloes returned five All-Americans from the 2013 team this year, and they will have the exact same luxury heading into 2015. We are witnessing history, folks

Nothing is guaranteed, but as Mark Wetmore said last Saturday “we’ll be hard to beat next year.” Wetmore is right, but Colorado will face a much more confident Stanford squad that surprised everyone but themselves by placing second in Terre Haute. Does Stanford have what it takes to break up a dynasty? 

Losing 2014 4th place finisher Maksim Korolev hurts, but Chris Miltenberg replaces him with Jim Rosa, the 5th place finisher at NCAAs in 2013 who redshirted this season due to injury. Jim Rosa will join his brother Joe on a 2015 Cardinal team that will feature one of the best 1-2 punches in the country. While these two will be potential top ten guys at NCAAs, it will take more than that to beat next year’s Colorado team. 

After the Rosas, Stanford will have the resurgent Sean McGorty as a solid #3. McGorty placed 20th in Terre Haute last Saturday, finishing as Stanford’s #2 and redeeming himself from 2013 where he was 162nd as a freshman. McGorty figures to be the Cardinal’s #3, but he has 13:37 5k speed that suggests he could be an even lower stick for Coach Miltenberg. Either way, Stanford has a top 3 that is arguably just as good as Colorado’s. 

Freshman Sam Wharton was a pleasant surprise last Saturday, finishing 39th as the #5 man on the 2nd place team. If he can run as well as he did at NCAAs next year, Stanford’s shot to ruin a Buffalo three-peat becomes a lot more legitimate. No one expected Stanford to finish as high as they did this year, partly because no one expected All-American performances out of Wharton and 5th year senior Michael Atchoo. The Cardinal lose Atchoo, but return Wharton as their number four. He will be counted on heavily considering Colorado’s #4 this year was Connor Winter in 24th.

The biggest factor to note is the battle between Colorado and Stanford’s #5. On paper, Colorado looks much more secure through five, as they will line up in 2015 with 5 cross country All-Americans. Pierce Murphy appears to be the Buffs #5 heading into 2015, as he was their final scorer in 35th this year. Yes, the Cardinal get top high schoolers Grant Fisher and Alex Ostberg, but they won’t be top 30 guys in their first collegiate seasons. Colorado has too much depth and too much experience not to complete the three-peat in 2015.
Prediction: Colorado over Stanford for a 3-peat

The women’s team battle will be close between Michigan State, Iowa State… and Oregon?


The Ducks disappointed in 2014, but return a strong squad next season.

The top two teams at NCAAs should be solid once again in 2015. Michigan State returns the 4th and 11th place finishers at NCAAs in Rachele Schulist and Lindsay Clark, giving the Spartans a reliable 1-2 punch. This year’s seniors Leah O’Connor and Julia Otwell will be tough to replace, but having two girls that figure to be in the top ten gives Walt Drenth’s crew a shot to repeat. 

Iowa State finished well back of the Spartans with 147 points, but they return #1 Crystal Nelson and 2013 All-American Bethanie Brown. Brown was only 53rd last week, but she endured an injury-filled season and gutted out a tough finish for her team. The Cyclones lose 8th place finisher Katy Moen, but they return five of their top seven in ’15. 

Let’s get real. It’s easy to predict the teams that finished high this year will do the same next year, so we’re digging a little deeper to find a young team that underperformed at NCAAs but has the potential to do something special next season. Who are they?

The Lady Ducks of Oregon were having an outstanding season in 2014 until everything came apart in Terre Haute. Second at Pre-Nats, winners of both PAC-12s and the West Regional, Oregon was expected to find itself on the podium last Saturday, but they had an off day to finish 6th. Their lack of a front runner became a glaring weakness when their #1 finished in 59th place. What is the outlook for the 2015 season?

Considering that the Ducks only lose one runner from their top seven, they should make a big jump from their 2014 finish. Top runner at NCAAs Alli Cash was only a freshman this season, and the Ducks’ 1-5 spread was a meager 10 seconds. Adding in a healthy Sarah Baxter gives this team the low-stick they so desperately need, as she sat out 2014 still healing from a stress fracture she suffered last spring. 

Need one more reason why the Ducks will win? This year’s NCAA champions, Michigan State, went from 6th in 2013 to 1st in 2014. They had zero All-Americans last year, and a whopping four this season. With such a young squad that has the ability to finish within 10 seconds of each other, this Ducks team will be dangerous in ’15. 
Prediction: Oregon over Michigan State

Kate Avery and Edward Cheserek will win, again


Edward Cheserek and Kate Avery both return in 2015.

Edward Cheserek
and Kate Avery used separate tactics last Saturday in Terre Haute to win, both with the same dominating result. Avery took the pace out hard and gapped the field quickly, while King Ches waited until 8k to throw down the hammer. Looking to next season, both are favored to repeat their performances in Louisville. 

Each runner would make history if they won again next year, as Cheserek would be the first man ever to win three NCAA cross country titles in a row, and Avery would join Sonia O’Sullivan, Shalane FlanaganSally Kipyego, and Shiela Reid as the only women to ever repeat an individual title. Will they do it?

We went over the possibility (or lack thereof) of Cheserek losing so many times this season, it got old pretty quickly. The fact remains that Cheserek will win any and every cross country race that he intends to, as his ability to control the tempo has essentially turned NCAA XC into a kicker’s race. No one wants to go out hard knowing that Cheserek will easily track them down, yet making it a 2k race plays right into Cheserek’s hands. As long as his competition fears and respects his kick, Cheserek will have his way at NCAAs. It’s the perfect situation for Ches, but it’s a nightmare for everyone else. (More on this topic tomorrow.)

Even though Avery was a class above the field in Terre Haute, she will have stiff competition next year. Second and fourth place finishers Sarah Disanza and Rachele Schulist both return in ’15, as well as Aisling Cuffe, who finished fourth in 2013 but missed this season with injury. Disanza was a major surprise finishing second, but Schulist appears to be a star in the making as she burst on to the national scene by leading Michigan State to a national title. While Cuffe’s recovery from a stress fracture is still unknown, she finished a place behind Avery in 2013, and figures to regain that form next season. Will these three pose a threat to Avery next fall?

We don’t think so. The Iona junior’s last few races have been ridiculous, including a fourth place in the Commonwealth 10k, a 19:15 6k and an eight second demolition over a stacked NCAA field. The new Kate Avery looks untouchable, she’ll make it two in a row next season in Louisville. 
Prediction: Edward Cheserek wins his 3rd NCAA XC title in a row, while Kate Avery goes back-to-back