Can Team USA Win World Cross?

Can Team USA Win World Cross?

Mar 25, 2015 by Lincoln Shryack
Can Team USA Win World Cross?



The Americans won silver for the first time in 29 years in 2013

ENTRIES

In what was seen as a modern miracle, Team USA did what so many thought impossible and finished second at the 2013 World Cross Country Championships in Bydgoszcz, Poland. Led by top ten finishes from Ben True and Chris Derrick, the gutsy Yanks took advantage of the dreadful Polish weather to upend all but the Ethiopians on that fateful March 24th day, one that will forever be cherished in USA distance running folklore. 
 
The Americans had not finished as high as second since 1984, and had not medaled since 2001 when they took down the six-time defending champion Kenyan team by a slim two points. Ryan Vail and Bobby Mack slid into the top 20 over the final lap of the course and held on while the Kenyans continued to fade on a muddy course. The sloppy conditions took their toll on the Kenyans as the race dragged on (one of their top runners even DNF’d), and the Americans were rewarded for their patience with their highest finish since the Reagan administration. 
 
Just how much did the conditions contribute to the silver medal? Better yet, can the 2015 version of Team USA duplicate their performance or even win this Saturday’s World XC Championships in Guiyang, China?
 
Based on the wealth of talent that the top two East African countries will bring to China, on paper the answer would once again be “no”. But since Team USA proved that projections aren’t really worth their weight last time around, we should at least explain why the Americans face a tougher task in 2015. 
 
For one, the course on Saturday will look nothing like the 2013 venue. Gone is the frozen tundra that tormented so many in 2013, in its place a warm weather climate that will be much more accommodating to the East Africans. Forecasts for Saturday are calling for rain, but a comfortable 69° F as opposed to the miserable conditions from two years ago. This makes it much easier on Ethiopia and Kenya. 
 
The depth of the top two distance running nations will be tough for Team USA to match. 59:23 half marathoner Bedan Karoki leads Team Kenya into Guiyang after winning the Kenyan Champs last month in Nairobi. Karoki will be joined by 2014 World Half Marathon champion Geoffrey Kamworor and 2013 World junior XC runner-up Leonard Barsoton to form the deepest trio at this year’s championships. These three can and should finish in the top 10 on Saturday, depth that the Americans simply cannot match. It should be noted that defending World XC champion Japhet Korir will not run in Guiyang after finishing a disastrous 48th at the Kenyan Champs. 

Kenyan XC champ Bedan Karoki enters World XC as a favorite in the men's senior race

Ethiopia will roll out a scary group as well. 2013 World junior XC champion Hagos Gebrhiwet has proven to be one of the best track runners in the world over the last three years, remarkable considering that he is still only 20. Gebrhiwet ran 12:47.53 over 5,000m when he was 18, and earned a World silver in Moscow in 2013. Add in 2015 Ethiopian XC champ Tamirat Tola and 2014 5,000m World leader Muktar Edris (12:54.83) and the defending champs look similarly formidable as their neighbors to the south. Ethiopian half marathon record holder Atsedu Tsegay (58:47) will also line up on Saturday. 


2013 World junior XC champ Hagos Gebrhiwet leads the Ethiopians into Guiyang
 
If we had to choose a favorite among these two loaded teams, the Kenyans would get the nod because they’re bringing more of a strength-based group to China, whereas the Ethiopians are trusting a few too many track guys to get the job done over an unfamiliar distance.  Nonetheless, we expect these rival nations to have an epic battle. 
 
But, hey, what’s with this negative attitude towards the Red, White, and Blue? Doesn’t the American spirit count for anything? 
 
Simply put, the Americans chances were greatly damaged when Ben True suffered an off day at the US XC Championships on February 7th in Boulder, finishing 11th and leaving him off the World team. The unseasonably warm weather took its toll on a number of athletes on that day, perhaps none more important than the 2013 World XC sixth place finisher. One bad day for True put a damper on this squad’s chances of recapturing their 2013 magic because it leaves them with just one potential low-stick to go up against the 3-4 front-runners each for Kenya and Ethiopia. Chris Derrick could win this race, and Team USA would still be a long shot to place top two. 


Chris Derrick dominated the USATF XC Championships in February
 
Without Ben True, the Americans need perfect days from Derrick, Bobby Curtis, Ryan Vail, and one more out of the trio of Patrick Smyth, Maksim Korolev, and Andrew Colley. Considering how dominant he was in Boulder (he won by 30 seconds), it’s not completely inconceivable that the 24-year-old Derrick could pull an upset and win this race if a few breaks fall his way (he’s the 5th best returner). But against the aforementioned East African talent, that seems unlikely given the much improved conditions from two years ago. 
 
Then there’s Curtis and Vail. The second and fourth place finishers from USA XC will need to be in the top 15 for the Americans to have any shot at repeating their finish from 2013, and that’s assuming Derrick can net a top five placing. The more rain the better for these two marathoners, as warm weather and a fast course will put them at a tremendous disadvantage against  the sub-13 5k and sub-27 10k guys from Kenya and Ethiopia. 
 
Once again, the loss of Ben True really hurts. At best, it looks like the Americans will be in a fight for third on Saturday in China, which would certainly be an outstanding result for a team that hasn’t medaled in consecutive events since 1986. Kenya and Ethiopia may be out of reach in 2015, but beating a strong Eritrean team on Saturday would be an excellent performance this time around. If they can out run the Eritreans, a squad with three top 20 returners from 2013, this group will have put together an excellent showing. 
 
TEAM PREDICTION: GOLD: Kenya SILVER: Ethiopia BRONZE: U.S.A. 
 
INDIVIDUAL PREDICTION: 1. Bedan Karoki (KEN) 2. Leonard Barsoton (KEN) 3. Hagos Gebrhiwet (ETH) 4. Tamirat Tola (ETH) 5. Chris Derrick (USA)
 
The IAAF World Cross Country Championships are Saturday March 28th in Guiyang, China. For U.S. viewers, the competition starts at 11pm CT Friday night.