Boston Marathon & B.A.A. 5K/Mile

Boston Marathon Preview: Finding Meb's Kryptonite

Boston Marathon Preview: Finding Meb's Kryptonite

Apr 18, 2015 by Lincoln Shryack
Boston Marathon Preview: Finding Meb's Kryptonite




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MEN'S RACE

As far as sequels go, Meb Keflezighi’s return to the Boston Marathon one year after his improbable victory, where he became the first American male to win since 1983, will be momentous. The 39-year-old, who turns 40 on May 5th, is America’s finest marathoner, a fact that has now cemented itself in our collective consciousness with the images of an emotional Meb fist-pumping while draped in the American flag last Patriots Day. It was a story that was too good to be true, and remarkably, is still being written a year after his greatest triumph. 
 
Here we are, just days before the 119th running of the Boston Marathon, and Meb’s return to Boston feels a bit like LeBron’s homecoming in Cleveland. On a much smaller scale, of course, but the 2004 Olympic silver medalist became immortalized in American lore when he zoomed down Boylston Street to the finish line, a year after a horrendous attack on that spot changed the race forever. Meb was the hero that we needed last year, and now he’s become something more than just an incredibly tough and consistent marathoner. The word ‘legend’ seems fitting. 

Meb Keflezighi celebrates after winning the 2014 Boston Marathon
Will this iconic image replicate itself in 2015?

Once again, Meb is being tasked with taking down a talented group of East Africans, among them past Boston champions just like himself. 2013 champion Lelisa Desisa has been in excellent form recently, and his 2:04:45 PB is 2nd best in the field. 2012 champ Wesley Korir is also back in 2015, although his chances of winning for a second time appear unlikely as he hasn’t broken 2:09 since 2012. 
 
In a race with five men who have broken 2:05, can a nearly 40-year-old man with a 2:08 PB defy the odds and win again? With so many variables and unpredictable elements, that answer is not so simple. But we’ll start by saying that on paper, Meb has a very small chance of winning this race in 2015. A couple of breaks had to fall his way last year for him to win, and the likelihood of two front-running East Africans dropping out again is very minimal (future WR holder Dennis Kimetto DNF’d, along with 2013 champ Desisa).
 
One thing is for certain, the Kenyans and Ethiopians will not take Meb for granted like they did last year; letting him go early with the expectation that he would come back to the field. He never looked back, and the East Africans realized what a dreadful mistake they had made. No such error will allow Meb to slip through their grasps in 2015. 

Meb reflects on Boston 2014 leading up to Monday's race:

Last year’s tactical mishaps by the field could make this year’s race play out in an entirely different manner. In an effort to sift out the contenders from the pretenders, a few among the Kenyan and Ethiopian contingents will be tasked on Monday with the unfortunate duty of setting the pace for the favorites, a sacrificial lamb of sorts to break open the race before halfway. This reason, among others, is why Kenyans are so dominant in the marathon, as they understand their roles and aren’t afraid of going out too hard. 
 
With this being the expected race plan for the East Africans in 2015, the Americans may struggle to put three in the top 10 like they did last year. Considering Meb’s consistency and Dathan Ritzenhein’s excellent build-up races, we’re thinking that they both finish in the 6th -10th range, but of course, last year taught us not to put limitations on someone based on their PR. 
 
As always, there is a laundry list of East Africans with jaw-dropping marathon/half-marathon times in Monday’s race. Some are misleading- like half marathon World record holder Zersenay Tadese’s 58:23, which would suggest a very quick 26.2, yet he has never broken 2:10. There is also the owner of the fastest time in the race, Patrick Makau, who set the former World record of 2:03:38 back in 2011, but has not broken 2:08 since 2012. These men look good on paper, but the results show that they are past their prime. 
 
Others, however, cannot be denied. 
 
Desisa appears to be a lock for a podium position, having won this race two years ago, and finishing 2nd in his last two marathons, New York and Dubai. The 25-year-old knows this course, and he’ll be hungry after failing to finish last year. Similar merits could be argued for Wilson Chebet, who was 2nd a year ago, and was chief among those lamenting letting Meb slip away in 2014. Desisa’s Ethiopian countrymen Yemane Tsegay and Tadese Tola are among the five under 2:05, and they too should be in the fight up front as the race stampedes to Boylston. 
 
Even among all these giants, Meb still draws the most interest, with media and fans asking the same question as they do time and time again. “What do you got for us this time?”
 
That answer comes Monday. 

WOMEN'S RACE

Shalane Flanagan
said it best when summarizing the women’s field assembled at the Boston Marathon-

“I don’t think there’s a strong favorite. There are 10 women that could win this race,” Flanagan said.

Flanagan herself could definitely be considered a favorite for a podium spot. Her performance at last year’s Boston Marathon was an all-around brave effort after she set a historically fast pace early, nearly breaking her half marathon personal best en route to a finishing time of 2:22:02, the fastest time by an American on the course. 

Shalane Flanagan ran aggressively up front with the East Africans in 2014.

She came away with a seventh-place finish overall, falling to Rita Jeptoo’s course-record run of 2:18:57. Jeptoo has since tested positive for EPO and was suspended from competition for two years, but Flanagan returns for more, eager to earn that podium spot she craves. 

The Olympian will have sizable competition all around with 2014 runner-up Buzunesh Deba, who finished behind Jeptoo in 2:19:59, also breaking the previous course record. The Ethiopian who lives and trains in New York will be looking to break out of her bridesmaid routine with one of the fastest personal bests entered in the field. 

Mare Dibaba will toe the line as the fastest entry with a 2:19:52 personal best which she ran in January at the Xiamen International Marathon, her fourth marathon in the last 12 months. The Ethiopian placed third at last year’s Boston Marathon. 

Two former Boston Marathon champions Caroline Kilel (2011) and Sharon Cherop (2012) will also be in the hunt with a great amount of experience on the course and recent impressive performances. Kilel was fifth at the 2015 Dubai Marathon in 2:21:19 and Cherop is coming off of a runner-up finish at the 2014 Frankfurt Marathon where she finished in 2:23:44. 

2012 champion Sharon Cherop

The starting line in Hopkinton will have formidable challengers with top American talents Desi Linden, Amy Cragg and Adriana Nelson. Linden had an unforgettable performance at the 2011 Boston Marathon where she finished second in a personal best time of 2:22:38, but has since suffered on and off from injuries. Heading into the race on Monday, the 2012 Olympian is healthier than ever, claiming that her fitness is where it was in 2011. 

Cragg is returning from a fourth-place finish at the Chicago Marathon where she tied her personal best mark of 2:27:03. In the same season, Cragg also captured her first national road title at the 10k Peachtree Road Race in Atlanta, Georgia. Heading into the Boston Marathon on Monday, Cragg has noted that she is more marathon-ready than ever, putting in more miles at faster paces than ever before in her career. 

Mammoth Lakes native Adriana Nelson is another top American entered in the field with a personal best mark of 2:28:52 from the 2008 London Marathon. In 2014, Nelson clocked a 15th-place finish at the Boston Marathon, ninth at the Frankfurt Marathon and a half marathon season’s best of 1:11:50 in New York. 

With world-class talent in a field with comparable marks, the women’s race should turn out to be one of the most exciting races to date on the Boston Marathon course. 

The 2015 Boston Marathon is this Monday, April 20th, Patriots Day. The elite women's race starts at 9:32 am ET, followed by the men at 10:00 am ET.