As the defending World champion and the fastest man over 10,000m in 2015 (26:50), 32-year-old Mo Farah is the overwhelming favorite to win gold in Beijing. Farah is so tough to beat at this distance because he has the engine of a marathoner and the speed of a miler, which allows him to control the pace and run a very quick last lap that is nearly impossible to beat.

WATCH NOP: THE UNTOLD OLYMPIC STORY EPISODE 1 (MO FARAH AND GALEN RUPP)

 

The last man to beat the Brit in a championship 10K was Ibrahim Jeilan back in 2011, where Farah went too early in the last lap and was caught by the hard-charging Ethiopian in the final 100. He hasn’t made that mistake since, sweeping the 10K/5K at the 2012 Olympics and 2013 World Championships with brilliant tactics each time. 

 

Given that Farah has once again shown tremendous speed this season (3:28 1500, 8:03 2-Mile WR), and has won the crucial tactical battles (Pre 10K, Lausanne 5K), it would take a heroic effort by one of the East Africans to beat him in Beijing. Farah’s top competition have shown time and again that they are unwilling to try and break him with an honest pace, a mistake which is always a recipe for defeat.

 

Even with so much going in Mo’s favor, I can’t just give this one to him automatically. 

 

Farah will definitely be feeling the heat from Kenyans Paul Tanui and Geoffrey Kamworor, the same two guys who dueled with him in the Prefontaine 10,000m. Farah, of course, won that race, but he certainly had to work for that victory as he couldn’t shake the pair until the final 100. If Farah is slightly off his game in Beijing, he could be in trouble against these two, particularly the World XC champion Kamworor, who just ran a very impressive 27:11 to win the Kenyan Trials in Nairobi on August 1st. That time was an unofficial altitude World record.

Can World XC champion Geoffrey Kamworor unseat Mo Farah for 10,000m gold?

Don’t forget about Kenya’s Bedan Karoki either, who finished 2nd at World XC and was runner-up to Kamworor in the Kenyan Trials. The soon-to-be 25-year-old set his 26:52 PR back in 2014. 

 

A big question mark in this one will be Olympic silver medalist Galen Rupp. The 29-year-old only raced once after USAs, and it was a rather underwhelming performance as Rupp was just fourth in the FloTrack Throwdown mile against a field that he would typically beat. Although it was an off-distance race and his first competition in more than a month, there’s no denying that Rupp looked flat in Portland and does not appear to be in medal-winning shape. 

 

It’s been a long summer for the US record holder with the NOP doping allegations making for a hefty distraction, and he simply has not shown enough to warrant medal consideration. Interestingly enough, however, Rupp does have the fastest PR in this field with his 26:44 from 2014. He was fourth in this event two years ago at the World Championships in Moscow.

 

You can’t forget about the Ethiopians, who have two serious medal contenders in Muktar Edris and Imane Merga. Edris was third at World XC, and more recently, won the Ethiopian Trials in 27:17, while Merga is the fourth fastest man in the world this season over 5,000m (12:59.04) and a former World XC champion from 2011. 

 

This should be a great fight with the Kenyans and Ethiopians throwing everything they’ve got at Farah, but he’s just too experienced, too tactically sound, and mostly just too fast to be beaten over 25 laps. Mo Farah takes World title #4 here.

With the absence of 2013 10,000m World champion Tirunesh Dibaba and silver medalist Gladys Cherono in Beijing, this race is officially wide open. The 3-time Olympic gold medalist and 9-time World champion Dibaba (Genzebe’s older sister) just had a baby in March, and removing her from this field takes away arguably the best women’s distance runner in history. Cherono would’ve been the top returner had she qualified, but she was only 6th at the Kenyan Trials. Just like Dibaba, Cherono will not be missed by the Beijing 10K field as she won the World Half Marathon title in 2014.  

 

Without Dibaba or Cherono, Ethiopia’s Belaynesh Oljira enters Beijing as the top returner from Moscow by virtue of her bronze medal finish from 2013. The 25-year-old was only third in the Ethiopian Trials in June, a good indication of how strong of a team the East African nation will send.  

 

Ethiopia owns the top seven times in the world this season, all run at the Trials in Hengelo. 29-year-old Gelete Burka has the World lead at 30:49, which is the slowest world-leading time at this point in the season since 2010. Part of that is because there are very few opportunities to run a fast 10K anymore, and also because the Kenyan women ran their trials at 5,500ft. The Ethiopians dominance of the 2015 World list means basically nothing in comparison to the experience of their East African rivals in this event. 

 

The Kenyans will bring two heavy hitters to Beijing in the form of Vivian Cheruiyot and Sally Kipyego. The 31-year-old Cheruiyot won the Kenyan Trials three weeks ago, and knows how to win this event as she was the champion back in 2011 in Daegu. Cheruiyot has the most impressive resume of anyone in this field, with a total of four World titles and two Olympic medals to her credit.

Vivian Cheruiyot could join Tirunesh Dibaba as just the 2nd woman to win two 10,000m World titles

Although she’s reached an age when many distance runners transition to the roads as a result of diminishing speed, Cheruiyot has shown this season on multiple occasions that she still has the wheels to win gold over 10K, highlighted by her 14:46 5K at the Pre Classic. 

 

Sally Kipyego DNF’d at the Kenyan Trials, but Athletics Kenya made the very wise decision to still put her on the team as she is the 2012 Olympic silver medalist and definitely capable of winning her first World title in Beijing. The 29-year-old Kipyego, who trains in Eugene with OTC Elite, ran 14:47 in the Pre 5K to finish closely behind Cheruiyot in May. 

 

US 5K record holder Molly Huddle decided to focus on the 10K this season, likely because the field is much softer than in the 5K, and gives her the best shot to medal. Huddle has had an incredible 2015, with her dominating US 10K title and her victory in the New York City Half Marathon (she beat Kipyego by over a minute!) proving that she is certainly in medal contention. Huddle very nearly beat Kenyan Mercy Cherono in the London 5K on July 25th, coming up less than three seconds shy of the World silver medalist. If the 30-year-old American is on her game, she will be in contention in the last mile. If she can find her way onto the podium, Huddle would join Kara Goucher as just the second US woman to medal in this event at Worlds. 

 

Fellow American Shalane Flanagan has great memories at the Bird’s Nest in Beijing, as it was the site of her Olympic bronze medal (which will soon become silver) from 2008 where she set the American record of 30:22. The 34-year-old Flanagan is still an outstanding 10,000m runner, even as her focus has turned entirely to the marathon. That being said, her chances of medaling are pretty slim given that she was only second at USAs and just simply doesn’t have the speed to close with the East Africans anymore. Flanagan was eighth in this event two years ago in Moscow. 

 

Flanagan’s Bowerman teammate Emily Infeld has been a pleasant surprise this season, and will make her World Championship debut in Beijing. The 25-year-old set her 31:38 PR at Payton Jordan in May. 

 

I like Cheruiyot in this race, as her experience greatly outweighs that of the Ethiopians. She would join Dibaba as just the second woman to win multiple World titles in this event, and without Dibaba challenging her in Beijing, I think it happens. 

Mo Farah will go for his third straight World title in his event, and fourth straight global title when you tack on his 2012 Olympic gold. Farah looked sharp in the Lausanne 5K on July 9th, winning in 13:11 with a 54 last lap that proved he is still the king in this race. 

 

The only man to come within five seconds of Farah in that race was Ethiopian breakout star Yomif Kejelcha, who did well to challenge the Brit up until the final 100 meters. The 18-year-old scored impressive victories at Pre and Rome (without Farah), the latter being his 12:58 World lead. Given that Farah has already beaten him this season, I don’t think that Kejelcha has the ability to take down the champ at Worlds, but he certainly belongs on the short list of names that will challenge late in the race.

 

Only one man can say that he’s taken down the Mo-Bot this season in a race other than the Monaco 1500, and that man is Ethiopia’s Hagos Gebrhiwet. The 21-year-old out kicked Farah in May to win the Doha 3K, and comes to Beijing as the reigning World silver medalist. Gebrhiwet should be stiff competition for Farah if he’s healthy, but he hasn’t raced since June 4th, which suggests that he’s banged up heading into Worlds. 

The last time Mo Farah and Hagos Gebrhiwet raced, the 21-year-old Ethiopian was victorious

Of course, what’s any championship distance race without the Kenyans, and the powerhouse should be well-represented in Beijing with big names Edwin Soi and Caleb Ndiku figuring to fight for podium position. The 29-year-old Soi won the Kenyan Trials on August 1st, and finished second behind Kejelcha at Pre in 13:11. He should have good memories from the Bird’s Nest as he won bronze back in 2008. 

 

Ndiku just might be the sleeper who could surprise everyone. The 22-year-old won the 2014 World indoor 3,000m title, but has only raced twice in 2015 as he was injured earlier in the year. Now healthy, the Kenyan can be a threat to Farah and the Ethiopians as he has 3:49 mile speed. Ndiku didn’t run at Kenyan Trials, but qualified to Beijing with his victory in the Diamond Race last year. 

 

The Americans bring a very solid group into this one led by Ryan Hill. The 25-year-old kicked hard to win USAs, a technique that should serve him well in a tactical World final. He’s not quite ready to hang with Farah and the East Africans when the pace gets really hot the last 600, but Hill has improved greatly since he finished 10th in this event two years ago, and could sneak into the top 5 on a good day. 

 

Ben True will make his World Championship debut in Beijing, but he certainly should not be discounted as he became the first American to ever win a Diamond League 5K earlier this year at the adidas Grand Prix. Sure, the field wasn’t near the level of say, a Lausanne or Rome, but True’s victory in New York did show that the 29-year-old can close well off a slow pace, which will be a huge factor at Worlds. 

 

Olympic silver medalist Galen Rupp was only third at USAs, but his experience at this level is far greater than that of Hill and True combined. Of course, Rupp’s main focus is on the 10K, but he has finished top ten in the 5K at the last three global competitions, and could be top five if he’s firing on all cylinders. 

 

You want my pick? It’s Farah, duh. 

It appears that my 5K/10K analysis has gone way too long, so I’ll be brief with the marathon preview.

 

The men’s race will pit the two fastest men ever over 26.2 miles against each other, that being Kenyans Dennis Kimetto and Wilson Kipsang. Kimetto smashed Kipsang’s 2:03:23 record last September with his unbelievable 2:02:57 in Berlin, but Kipsang got some revenge by beating his countryman by a full minute in April’s London Marathon. Even though Kimetto owns the World record, Kipsang is much more experienced at this level and has proven that he can excel in poor conditions, which are certainly expected in the smog-filled heater that is Beijing. 

WATCH DRIVEN: WILSON KIPSANG EPISODE 2 (UNFINISHED BUSINESS).

"And we're the two fastest marathoners ever in the world" 

Of course, the defending champion cannot be ignored, as Uganda’s Stephen Kiprotich will go for his second straight world title and his third straight global title overall as he won the 2012 Olympic Marathon as well. The 26-year-old ran a PR of 2:06 in Tokyo back in February, remarkable considering that his young daughter had passed away just a month prior. Kiprotich is said to be in good form, and will be a factor with the conditions keeping the pace well within his capabilities. 

 

The Ethiopians would love nothing more than to crash the Kenyan (and one Ugandan) party, and they too will bring a powerful group to Beijing, headlined by two-time Boston Marathon champion Lelisa Desisa. The 25-year-old Desisa will run his first marathon since breaking the tape on Boylston Street back in April, and he will look to win gold in Beijing after winning silver in the 2013 World Championship marathon. Desisa will be joined by fellow Ethiopian Yemene Tsegay, who finished runner-up in Boston. Tsegay and Desisa both own 2:04 PRs. 

35-year-old Kenyan Edna Kiplagat will try to become the first woman to ever win three straight World marathon titles in Beijing, but she will have her hands full with 2015 World leader Mare Dibaba and London Marathon champion Tigist Tufa, both from Ethiopia. 

 

Although Kiplagat has all the experience in this event, she is coming off a disappointing 11th place finish in London just a year after winning the 2014 race. Kiplagat’s 2:27:16 finish left her nearly four minutes behind Tufa, who will make her World Championships debut in 2015. Although she has no prior championship race to draw on heading into Beijing, she has won the last three marathons that she has finished, with a DNF in Dubai thrown in between. 

Edna Kiplagat is the two-time defending champion, but she will be challenged by the Ethiopians in Beijing

The biggest threat to Kiplagat’s crown appears to be Dibaba, who set the 2:19:52 World lead with her victory in the Xiamen Marathon on January 3rd. The 25-year-old followed that performance up with a near victory in Boston, coming up just four seconds shy of winner Caroline Rotich in a tight battle down Boylston Street. 

 

Dibaba has been remarkably consistent the last two years, winning three out of her last five marathons including Chicago last October. Given that she’s shown predictability in a very unpredictable event, she will not go down lightly in Beijing.