It’s always hard to say goodbye. I had to part ways with the 2015 NCAA cross country season this past weekend, and even though the culmination of an entire fall worth of drama did not disappoint in the least, I just wasn’t prepared for it to be over, ok? That’s the way it is with sports— months worth of anticipation reaches its climax in the championship battle, but the moment itself, the part where you soak it all in, feels so short-lived that it hardly does the lengthy season any justice. The trophies have been distributed, the photos have been taken, and the stories have been written, but is that it? There has to be more!

 

I guess I’m experiencing what some would call an “NCAA hangover,” the sudden realization that the awesomeness I witnessed on Saturday was gone from my life entirely— that I would never get to see the 2015 Syracuse v. 2015 Colorado 2K bloodbath again, for example, or that the Lady Lobos, the greatest team in women’s cross country history, we’re losing three of their key players. Hell, the freakin’ Foot Locker curse just got broken people, am I really supposed to just file this one away in the archives already? Molly Seidel might have legitimately sold her soul to win an NCAA XC title (per sources), are we really just over it all? Edward Cheserek and his 3-peat would not approve. 

 

But unfortunately, I don’t make the rules, and the rules say that what’s done is done. 2015 will forever be the year that title-starved Syracuse ended a dynasty in a barn-burner, that New Mexico changed our definition of greatness, and the season that Molly Seidel and Edward Cheserek each accomplished what no other individual had previously, but alas, it’s time to cast our eyes to 2016. After all, how else am I expected to have this let down again a year from now if I don’t start hyping up next season already?

 

Here are my way too early predictions for 2016 NCAA XC Championships:

 

(P.S. you totally don’t need to read my 2015 article, but just know that I got all my predictions correct!) 

Syracuse Repeats, But Oregon Gives Them A Serious Scare

With their defeat of the three-peat seeking Colorado Buffaloes, the Orange proved themselves to be the worthiest of champions in 2015, finishing with three in the top-10 and four All-Americans overall. It was a brilliant performance six decades in the making, and now with four of their top five returning for 2016 (and three for 2017!), the Orangemen are in position to go back-to-back as their fellow contenders will be hit much harder with graduation. But before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s digest what we saw in Louisville as it pertains to next season. 

 

The reason we didn’t think the Orange could overtake CU in Louisville was because they had zero margin for error— ‘Cuse had to get perfect days from the three-headed monster of Knight-Bennie-Hehir, and even then, they still had to get huge performances out of their 4-5, who appeared to be their Achilles' heel heading into the weekend. But remarkably, five perfect days is just what coach Chris Fox got, with Philo Germano’s heroic final 2,000m putting the Buffaloes out to pasture. Even more remarkable is that Colorado ran really well on all accounts— they finished with five All-Americans and nearly had a sixth— but ‘Cuse was able to neutralize this with three in the top 10, as CU had to wait for their second until 25th place. Syracuse played to their strengths and eliminated their weakness on the backend, and that’s why they’re holding the trophy. 

 

When the dust had settled after the heavyweight slugfest, a simple glance at every contender’s roster heading into next season revealed that the men who had just conquered the NCAA would bring back 80% of their top five for 2016, a cruel reality for Colorado and Stanford as they both recover from the loss of multiple All-Americans. With this year’s experience plus the subsequent swagger in tow, and losing only Hehir, there’s no doubt that the 2015 champs forecast better for 2016 than any other squad. Knight and Bennie were only sophomores in 2015, and their budding superstardom combined with the rise of Germano and Joel Hubbard makes this a very confident and dangerous team. So who can stop Syracuse in 2015?

 

Let’s run down three candidates, in order of least to best shot:

 

Colorado loses the core four of Murphy, Pearson, Winter, and Moussa, which will require the mad scientist Wetmore to maximize the potential of his remaining All-Americans Saarel and Dressel, while simultaneously grooming three unproven Buffs to fill the rest of his top five. No small order even by the Factor’s standards. I think Wetmore can still turn this team into podium material, especially when some talented recruits pour in, but this is not a championship-caliber team for 2016. Next!

Stanford is now officially in the post-Rosa era, which obviously makes it hard to imagine the Cardinal winning a title without them in 2016 since they couldn’t do it with them in 2015. However, McGorty and Fisher should be top ten candidates, fourth man Garrett Sweatt returns, and don’t forget redshirt frosh Alex Ostberg is waiting, so this team will be in the mix. However, Syracuse still has the better top duo and support system, so I think Stanford sticks at third for the second straight year. 

 

Oregon really impressed me on Saturday. Sure, they didn’t have anybody in the top-40 besides King Ches, but the Ducks managed to grab fourth as Travis Neuman (46th), Jake Leingang (50th), and frosh Tanner Anderson (56th) had really solid days. This from a team I completely left for dead once Eric Jenkins skipped town, but once again, I was wrong. And this team is only getting started.

 

Everyone is back next season, and two of the top five, Anderson and Mr. Sub-4 Himself Matthew Maton, were only freshmen in 2015. The Ducks also have blue-chippers Drew Hunter and Austin Tamagno waiting in the wings, who can both be All-Americans in their first seasons. A championship is coming soon for Oregon, but again, ‘Cuse’s strength up front with Knight and Bennie is still too much for this group to handle with Germano and Hubbard as expected mainstays at the 3-4 spots. Plus, and perhaps most importantly, Oregon finished more than 100 points behind Syracuse in 2015. That's a pretty big margin to make up in one year. They'll cut into that with Hehir gone, but 100 points worth? Nah.

 

So that leaves us with the team we started with. Not mentioned so far is Syracuse’s projected fifth man heading into 2016, as that remains this powerful squad’s one and only question mark. However, with their recent record of bringing along previously unheralded runners to national prominence in a matter of months (See: Bennie, Colin and Germano, Philo), I’m confident that coach Fox can find one more piece to retain this team’s championship pedigree. 

 

2016 NCAA XC Men’s Podium Picks: 1. Syracuse 2. Oregon 3. Stanford 4. Colorado

 

On to the ladies!

Colorado Arrives As New Mexico Exits

Obviously, the women’s side of things in 2015 was struck by a sudden bolt of lightning when Courtney Frerichs and Rhona Auckland decided to take their talents to Albuquerque, and in a flash, the greatest women’s cross country team in NCAA history was built at New Mexico. Nobody else ever had a chance. 

 

Unfortunately for those of us who enjoy good ole fashioned cross country beat downs, the Lobos lose three of their top five, which means the days of 49-point NCAA bulldozing are likely in the past. But that’s great news for the rest of the country— “Hey guys, the big, bad wolf isn’t so scary anymore, we can come out and play!” I imagine that’s the sentiment Colorado and Providence are sharing as they look towards 2016, because now, like, more than one team can actually win this thing. 

Breathe a sigh of relief, NCAA. Rhona Auckland and Alice Wright are the only Lobo returners

Joe Franklin, magician that he is, isn’t likely to shut down the British pipeline anytime soon, and so you have to expect that reinforcements are coming to replace Frerichs, Calli Thackery, and Molly Renfer. Alice Wright and Auckland will be the nation’s best 1-2, and you gotta think that Franklin will be able to convince some supremely talented ladies to come train with the pair after the season they just had. So, despite heavy losses, a successful title defense isn’t out of the question. 

 

The fourth-place Friars of Providence will also be very daunting in 2016 should seniors Sarah Collins (20th) and Lauren Mullins (62nd) return for 5th years, but the team I’m looking at to make a huge jump is N.C. State, who nearly crashed the NCAA podium despite their top finisher being an unfathomable 57th. 

 

The Wolfpack finished fifth on Saturday in Louisville, but let’s imagine how much better it could have been. Super-frosh Ryen Frazier was State’s fifth scorer in 118th, the same Ryen Frazier who won Notre Dame in early October over, oh, I don’t know, the New Mexico powerhouse and the curse killer herself, Moly Seidel! Suffice to say, if Frazier had run up to her potential on Saturday, we’d be looking at a podium team. But this team can go ahead and shake off their 2015 disappointment, because everybody knows the cool kids are already looking at 2016. And 2016 looks damn good for N.C. State.

 

The Pack lose just one from their entire top seven, and conveniently, get to fill that gap with Ryen’s sister, Wesley.The elder Frazier sat out this season after transferring from Duke, but she ran 15:45 on the track last spring, and if you remember, 9:57 for 3200m in high school. Add her to a lineup that includes her sister, Erika Kemp (57th at NCAAs), and sophomore-to-be Rachel Koon (59th), and suddenly you have a team with mountains of potential. This is the world we live in in this post-LOBOcalyptic time — teams like N.C. State aren’t getting laughed out of the title discussion anymore. 

 

That being said, 2015 runner-up Colorado heads into the off-season in ideal position to stand atop the podium in 2016. The Buffs retain All-Americans Erin Clark (11th) and Kaitlyn Benner (16th), who each improved substantially this season and project to both be top-five caliber next year if they maintain their current trajectory. Sophomore Melanie Nun was seventh at PAC-12s this season before stumbling a bit at Nationals (65th), while the uber talented frosh Dani Jones should be top-20 material next season after an impressive 49th place in Louisville. This is the same Dani Jones that ran 4:39 in high school, so get excited Buff nation. Even while New Mexico tore through this season, it was clear that this Buffalo team was next in line as their success despite their youth signaled happy days ahead. 

 

2016 NCAA XC Women’s Podium Picks: 1. Colorado 2. N.C. State 3. New Mexico 4. Providence 

 

Shoot. I was supposed to save some words to pick my individual favorites, but c’mon! It’s Ches and Allie O. T-minus 360 days til Terre Haute!