The Olympic track program starts August 12. The women's 3000m steeplechase final is Monday, August 15 at 9:15AM Central, then the women's 1500m final is Tuesday, August 16 at 8:30PM Central, and the women's 800m final is Saturday, August 20 at 7:15PM Central. Click here for the entire 2016 Olympic Games schedule. Below are our previews for those three events.

800m

Last three podiums

2015 Worlds: Maryna Arzamasava, Melissa Bishop, Eunice Sum
2013 Worlds: Eunice Sum, Mariya Savinova, Brenda Martinez
2012 Olympics: Mariya Savinova, Caster Semenya, Ekaterina Poistogova

Team USA with 2016 season bests

Kate Grace (1:59.10), Ajee Wilson (1:59.51), Chrishuna Williams (1:59.59)

Other contenders

Caster Semenya, Francine Niyonsaba, Melissa Bishop, Eunice Sum, Margaret Wambui

2016 world leaders

Caster Semenya (1:55.33), Francine Niyonsaba (1:56.24), Melissa Bishop (1:57.43)

How are America's chances?

The United States hasn't won an Olympic medal in the women's 800m since Kim Gallagher took home bronze in 1988 (and silver in 1984!). Even American record-holder Jearl Miles-Clark, who ran 1:56.40 in 1999, never brought home an 800m medal. Is 2016 the year? Let's go with, "Why not?" 

The unpredictable and heartbreaking Olympic Trials saw world medalists Alysia Montano and Brenda Martinez crash out of the finals and Molly Ludlow finish fourth. Martinez went on to qualify for Team USA in the 1500m, and Ludlow ran 1:57.68 in Monaco to become the seventh-fastest American of all-time. In Rio, anything will be possible for Kate Grace, Ajee Wilson and Chrishuna Williams.

Grace only lost twice this outdoor season, and ran the perfect 1:59.10 PB to win the Trials. She is thriving under new coach Drew Wartenberg, and manages to win in every race situation. Though a first-time Olympian, I'm betting (not literally) on Grace to make the final.

It seems like the world hasn't been buzzing about Wilson as much as they were in 2014 when she was ranked No. 1 in the world (1:57.67!). But the 22-year-old reigning world indoor silver medalist was runner-up behind Grace in Eugene, and has three sub-2:00 efforts this season. When she finished sixth at the 2013 World Championships, she only ran under 2:00 once prior to running 1:58.21 in the final, so thinking she'll come away as the top American isn't crazy.

Newcomer Williams is the surprise Team USA member who only started running the 800m in 2015. The former Arkansas All-American did not make it out of the first round of the U.S. Outdoor Championships last spring, nor the U.S. Indoor Championships in March. But she continued to chip time off her PB to run 1:59.59 for third at the Trials. She's never raced in this competitive of a field, but her 2016 spring season has consisted of one continuous improvement after another.

Who will win or medal?

I would be doing this event a disservice if I didn't talk about who will win the gold medal unless utter tragedy strikes. South Africa's Caster Semenya will win--no question. Even if she gets a horrible muscle cramp or food poisoning, I would still pick Semenya to win gold--she's THAT much better than everyone else. Plus, she's no longer contesting in the 400m, which will leave her fresh through the rounds.

Semenya ran 1:55.33 on July 15 in Monaco. It's the 12th-fastest mark ever recorded, and the fastest time in eight years. She waited until there was about 100 meters left in the race to pull away from the field. What if Semenya started her kick earlier? Could Rio be to the women's 800m what London was to the men's? The world record of 1:53.28 was set by Jarmila Kratochvilova in 1983, and I don't think Semenya breaking it is out of the question.



The next best performer in 2016 has been Oregon Track Club Elite member Francine Niyonsaba. She emerged this March by winning the World Indoor Championships, and only posted three Diamond League losses this summer--all to Semenya. I think she's beatable, but probably the second-best athlete of the field. Kenyan Margaret Wambui could overtake Niyonsaba for silver. The 2014 World junior champ took home bronze at the World indoor championships and would have recorded a 1:56 performance behind Semenya and Niyonsaba in Monaco if she hadn't been disqualified. 

2015 world silver medalist Melissa Bishop ran the third-fastest time of the year with her Canadian record of 1:57.43. She finished three seconds behind Semenya in Rome, but ran under 1:59 four times after that. Another factor that could propel Bishop to a medal is her improvement in the 1500m. Traditionally an 800m runner, Bishop slashed 15 seconds off her 4:24 best to run 4:09 in May. Her strength is where it's never been before. She surprised the world in Beijing last summer, and I wouldn't be shocked if she took down Niyonsaba in Rio. But Semenya? No way. My picks: Caster Semenya, gold; Francine Niyonsaba, silver; Melissa Bishop, bronze.

1500m

Last three podiums

2015 Worlds: Genzebe Dibaba, Faith Kipyegon, Sifan Hassan
2013 Worlds: Abeba Aregawi, Jenny Simpson, Hellen Obiri
2012 Olympics: Asli Cakir Alptekin (now vacant), Gamze Bulut, Maryam Yusuf Jamal

Team USA with 2016 season bests

Jenny Simpson (4:01.57), Shannon Rowbury (4:04.65), Brenda Martinez (4:03.57)

Other contenders

Faith Kipyegon, Genzebe Dibaba, Laura Muir, Dawit Seyaum, Sifan Hassan

2016 world leaders

Faith Kipyegon (3:56.41), Laura Muir (3:57.49), Dawit Seyaum (3:58.10)

How are America's chances?

This is the best possible team the U.S. could send to Rio. Jenny Simpson has medals. Shannon Rowbury has medals. Brenda Martinez has a medal. I think the world should be shocked if all three didn't advance to the final. 

Simpson is the fastest American this season with her 4:01 fourth-place finish at the Pre Classic. Her strength through rounds enabled her to blast away from Rowbury down the homestretch to win the trials. Besides not making the Olympic final in 2012, Simpson has been a gamer the last six years.

2011: U.S. runner-up, world champion
2013: World silver medalist
2014: U.S. champion, 3:57.22 PB, Diamond League winner
2015: U.S. champion, 11th at World Championships (see why here)



Rowbury was fifth in London, and could be upgraded to a medal soon. Her 4:04.65 season best from Pre (11th place) shouldn't be viewed as a disappointment. She probably wanted to run faster, but this is the same woman who ran 2:05/4:06 in the same meet this year and recently broke 2:00 (1:59.97) for the first time. She's fast and she's strong, and she got through the rounds and onto the team like the veteran American record-holder that she is.

Martinez was one of the favorites to make the team in the 800m, but in her sixth race at the Trials, she qualified for Team USA with a 4:06.16 third-place finish. It may not be the event she planned on racing in Rio, but she's got just as good a shot as Simpson and Rowbury. And maybe it's a good thing she's in the 1500m! Last season, she made the U.S. team in the 800m, and failed to advance to the final in Beijing. At the Trials, Martinez looked so, so good. In nearly every race, she accelerated with 200m to go, and never fell off form.

Honestly, any of these women could take home a medal--my brain hurts thinking about it. Throw their season's best times aside--compared to the Faith Kipyegons and Genzebe Dibabas of the world, Team USA hasn't run their fastest times yet in 2016. Most Americans don't go to Europe in June so they can run on fresh legs through the rounds at the Trials. 

Who will win or medal?

2015 was the year of Genzebe Dibaba, the 1500m world record-holder and shoe-in for world champion. But 2016 is a different story. After blowing away the competition in the 3K at this year's World Indoor Championships, Dibaba has one race to her name this season: a quick 3:59.83 in Barcelona. Her coach, Jama Aden, was reportedly arrested in June on a doping raid, but has since been released. That has to take some emotional toll on his athletes, not to mention the reports of Dibaba suffering from injuries after the indoor season. The fact is, Dibaba is good. And she's probably in great shape. But we just DON'T KNOW! 

One thing we do know is Faith Kipyegon is on top of the world this season. She ran 3:56 TWICE, and recorded a 4:18 mile in Oslo. After finishing runner-up to Dibaba in Beijing, it looks like the tables have turned and Kipyegon is now on top. She will be hard to beat.

Laura Muir was fifth in Beijing, and has exploded as one to watch in Rio after recording a 3:57.49 British record at the London Diamond League. She blew away the competition, and held her own in Oslo against Kipyegon to finish in 4:19 for the mile. She may make a better case for a medal than Dibaba. But this is hard, so I'm going Faith Kipyegon, gold; Jenny Simpson, silver; Laura Muir, bronze.

3000m Steeplechase

Last three podiums

2015 Worlds: Hyvin Jepkemoi, Habiba Ghribi, Gesa Krause
2013 Worlds: Milcah Cheywa, Lydiah Chepkurui, Sofia Assefa
2012 Olympics: Habiba Ghribi, Sofia Assefa, Milcah Cheywa

Team USA with 2016 season bests

Emma Coburn (9:10.76 AR), Courtney Frerichs (9:20.92), Colleen Quigley (9:21.29)

Other contenders

Ruth Chebet, Hyvin Jepkemoi, Etenesh Diro, Habiba Ghribi, Gesa Krause

2016 world leaders

Ruth Chebet (8:59.97), Hyvin Jepkemoi (9:00.01), Emma Coburn (9:10.76)

How are America's chances?

The best they've ever been! Emma Coburn enters the Olympic competition with the third-fastest mark of 2016, and the No. 13 mark ever recorded in the world. Her biggest challenges, Ruth Chebet and Hyvin Jepkemoi, will likely go after the world record (8:58.81). If Coburn executes her race like she did en route to her 9:10 American record, she will take home a medal. "I'm not counting anyone out, but I'm also not counting myself out," Coburn told FloTrack at the TrackTown Summer Series. Will said.

Flash back to 2012. Coburn was still a student-athlete at Colorado, and recorded her then-PB of 9:25.28 at the Pre Classic. She won the Olympic Trials, then took two seconds off her best time to finish eighth in the Olympic final. A lot can change in four years, and Coburn has proven to be one of the best in the world. She was in contention for a medal last summer, but didn't have it over the final 150 meters. I like to think that when an athlete falls short of achieving that sort of goal, they do everything they can to not let tragedy strike again. Her performance at Prefontaine is a huge indicator, as well as her Trials dominance (the 9:17.48 she ran to win in Eugene would be the sixth-fastest time in the world, but we already knew she was a badass). 



Bowerman Track Club teammates Courtney Frerichs and Colleen Quigley melted hearts when they finished second and third, respectively, at the Trials. When it looked like Frerichs was falling off with two laps to go, she found another gear to pass her teammate Quigley, who then latched on to join her in securing an Olympic berth. Frerichs set the NCAA record--SOLO--in June, and joined Bowerman TC shortly after. After a few weeks of training with Quigley, expect sub-9:20 from the former New Mexico superstar. Quigley was a world finalist last summer, and closed her final lap in 68 seconds to win her first NCAA title in 2015. I think all three Americans will make the final, but Coburn has the best--if not only--shot to take home a medal.

Who will win or medal?

Chebet and Jepkemoi, the reigning world champion, nearly broke the world record at Prefontaine. All eyes will be on Chebet, who only ran 9:20 before this season, and finished 11th at the 2015 World Championships. Other contenders include 2015 silver, 2012 gold and 2011 silver medalist Habiba Ghribi and 2015 bronze medalist Gesa Krause. Ghribi only has two races under her belt in 2016, but she also only ran one race prior to earning silver in Beijing. She went on to set a PB of 9:05 in Brussels, and at 32, will be one of the oldest in the field. Krause only ran 9:22 at Prefontaine, but is coming off a 9:18 PB that won the European championships. Though she doesn't have one of the fastest PBs of the field, she surprised some by finishing third in Beijing, and set new marks in the 1500m and mile this summer, which proves her fitness is strong.

Because of the inconsistency, I'm picking Jepkemoi over Chebet to take home gold. I think Chebet is good in 2016, but she hasn't proven herself in a global championship at the senior level. Ghribi looked really good in London, and has proven time and time again that she's legit in the steeple. This was hard: Hyvin Jepkemoi, gold; Habiba Ghribi, silver; Emma Coburn, bronze.