2016 Kolas NCAA Selection Show

What To Watch For At The Women's NCAA Regional Races

What To Watch For At The Women's NCAA Regional Races

Preview of the women's races at the 2016 NCAA XC regional meets.

Nov 10, 2016 by Dennis Young
What To Watch For At The Women's NCAA Regional Races
Check out the women's Saucony Flo50 here, remember that nothing in life is a lock, go through our entire regional breakdown below, then watch our live Kolas NCAA selection show instead of working all day tomorrow.



Northeast


FloTrack projections
: Providence, Harvard auto, Yale in on points
Locks: Providence
What could change: Yale routed Harvard at Wisconsin before the Crimson turned the tables on them at the Ivy League meet. Yale is semi-comfortable on points. But if Harvard finishes third, they're at the mercy of Georgetown, Penn, Michigan State, SMU, Boise State, and Minnesota making it. If two or three of those teams make it, plus Yale qualifying automatically, that should be enough for a third-place Harvard.
Projected teams: 2-3

Mid-Atlantic


FloTrack projections: Penn State, Villanova auto, Penn, West Virginia in on points
Locks: Penn State
What could change: Georgetown beat Penn and West Virginia at Penn State; if they can return to their September form, an automatic bid is there for the taking. Penn and West Virginia are in on points right now. But if West Virginia or Georgetown takes second and Penn takes third, then half of Penn's points---two wins over Villanova---are gone. A lot depends on the exact order here, as Penn and WVU could lose or gain points quickly.
Projected teams: 2-5

South


FloTrack projections: Mississippi, Mississippi State auto
Locks: Mississippi
What could change: Vanderbilt was only 32 points behind Mississippi State at the SEC meet. This region will probably only get two teams, and the identity of the second team will affect points for a lot of teams across the country.
Projected teams: 2

Southeast


FloTrack projections: NC State, William & Mary auto
Locks: NC State
What could change: William & Mary doesn't have the points to survive an non-top-two finish. Neither does Eastern Kentucky, but EKU was no worse at Pre-Nats than William & Mary was at Penn State. Both teams have raced against Virginia this season and performed similarly.
Projected teams: 2


South Central


FloTrack projections
: Arkansas, Baylor auto, Southern Methodist in on points
Locks: Arkansas
What could change: Baylor has enough points to get in with a second or third finish, and SMU is good enough to take second. But if SMU takes third, they're at the mercy of other regions. Their three points right now are William & Mary, Boise State, and Michigan State. If one of those teams fails to qualify and SMU finishes third in the South Central, that opens the door for another team in another region.
Projected teams: 2-3

Great Lakes


FloTrack projections: Michigan, Michigan State auto, Eastern Michigan, Notre Dame in on points
Locks: Michigan
What could change: The order could change, but Eastern Michigan, Notre Dame, Michigan, and Michigan State all have enough points to finish in the top four in any order. If Ohio State, Wisconsin, or Butler somehow breaks up the top four, those teams still likely have enough points to trigger the push process, which would likely have bigger ramifications outside the region than in.
Projected teams: 4

Midwest


FloTrack projections: Iowa State, Oklahoma State auto
Locks: Iowa State
What could change: Minnesota could, on a crazy day, sneak by Oklahoma State for second. If Minnesota is third, they could get points depending on how Boise State, Michigan State, SMU, and Georgetown run at their regional meets. But if Oklahoma State is third, they have wins over Baylor, West Virginia twice, and William & Mary.
Projected teams: 2-3

Mountain 


FloTrack projections: Colorado, New Mexico auto, BYU in on points, Air Force push, Utah in on points
Locks: Colorado, New Mexico, BYU
What could change: Air Force has one or zero points depending on what happens with Boise State, but they were just 11 points behind New Mexico at the Mountain West meet. So if Air Force is fifth, they won't make the meet. But if they're third or fourth, then BYU and Utah have enough points to trigger the push process behind them.

If Air Force makes it, then it will be the first time they ever qualified for the NCAA meet.
Projected teams: 4-5

West


FloTrack projections: Washington, Stanford auto, Oregon, Portland, San Francisco, Boise State in on points
Locks: Washington, Portland, Oregon, San Francisco, Boise State
Projected teams: 3-8
What could change: Oh man. UCLA has a ton of points, but could find themselves permanently blocked and unable to push anyone in. Stanford is probably the second best team here, and doesn't have that many points. So what happens here will have massive rippling effects across the country. If the top six finish in the order we have projected, then it's life as normal. But if Cal, UCLA, or Cal Poly goes wild and finishes in the top six, then lots of things are on the table.

UCLA has six points and beat Boise State at Wisconsin, so if they finish in the top in the top six or seven, they're in good shape and won't shake things up too much. But they lost to Cal at Pac-12s, and Cal has very few points. But if Stanford is outside of the top two, *Stanford* may require a push, and that could leave teams that Cal beats out in the cold. Watch the California teams here.