By The Numbers: Will Colorado Repeat?
By The Numbers: Will Colorado Repeat?
By: Scott Olberding
In November of 2013, the University of Colorado men’s cross country team defeated the field in Terre Haute by scoring 149 points, beating second place Northern Arizona by 20. Nine months later, the Buffs are atop Flotrack's Saucony Flo50 Rankings. All of the ensuing pre-season discussion begs the question: how often does the former year’s champion actually win the following National Championship?
Based on information gathered dating back to 1961, the defending champion has repeated as #1 a total of 20 times, or about 38 percent. Furthermore, the prior-year’s champion has finished in the top-4 the following year 37 times, earning a podium spot 71 percent of the time. In fact, there are only two instances since 1961 where the prior-year’s champion failed to make the National meet: San Jose State in 1964 and UTEP in 1984.
When examining the data further, a trend emerges: five teams own the majority of the podium spots. In fact, since 1990, Arkansas, Colorado, Wisconsin, Stanford and Oklahoma State have earned 49 of the available 96 top-4 finishes, equating to 59 percent. The data also outlines one salient aside: Arkansas has traditionally been very, very good. Since 1990, when the Razorbacks have appeared in the top-4, they took first-place a staggering 62 percent of the time. Colorado, Stanford and Oklahoma State all boast percentages above 30, but Arkansas is clearly unparalleled when it comes to podium efficiency.
A graphical representation further showcases the dominance of this Fab-5. In the past 24 championships, only 7 teams have raced their way to the number-one spot, with 88 percent of these instances being run by either Arkansas, Colorado, Wisconsin, Stanford or Oklahoma State.
If past results lend any indication to future performance, Colorado will very likely spend some time on the coveted wooden deck in Terre Haute on November 22nd, although I have a suspicion the Buffs will only leave satisfied with a second national title in as many years.
Follow Scott @isthatsol
Follow Scott @isthatsol
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