CIF California State Championship Preview

CIF California State Championship Preview

Nov 27, 2015 by Gordon Mack
CIF California State Championship Preview



There are at least 20 teams with hopes of winning the 10 state championship trophies, but only a few teams also have hopes of making NXN. Spencer Dodds and his Wolfpack fellows are among them.

From one perspective, it's every team for itself on Saturday - everyone is in the same race, and each team wants to have the best possible performance and beat whoever they can.  Looked at another way, though, there is a larger battle within every CIF State Meet: Southern Section vs. everyone else.  The country's largest region, with more schools in it than most states, the Southern Section routinely dominates across all divisions when the state comes together in Fresno to close out the season.  With that in mind, let's look at who's coming to Woodward Park from each section on Saturday, and which teams and individuals have the best chance of going home as champions.

ENTER NXN/Foot Locker HUB!

Division 1 Boys Preview:


Written By: Jeff George

Defending champion and US #1 Great Oak continues to march on, winning the Southern Section by 23 points for their 3rd head-to-head victory over Dana Hills this year.  It's entirely possible that those two teams could go 1-2 at the state meet again, as they did last year, and it may not be as close this time around.  There was an 87-point gap behind the Dolphins at Mt. SAC last weekend, which could open the door for a spirited competition for third place if none of the contenders can catch the top two teams.  Ventura seems to be the consensus 3rd-best team out of the Southern Section, but after them it gets a little jumbled.  California (Whittier) had a tremendous performance at the finals last weekend, which should add a confidence boost to a team that has run with ambition all season.  On the other hand, looking at season-best times, you could go with Arcadia or Burroughs Burbank.  Those two seem to do better on flatter, faster courses, and could find Woodward Park more to their liking than Mt. SAC was this past Saturday.  Don't forget: Burroughs was 4th in last year's state meet.

Madera South finished 3rd last year, representing the Central Section well, and could very well end up there again with a good race.  The chief contender to Great Oak and Dana Hills could be Jesuit, though - the Marauders took 3rd when these 4 teams squared off at Woodward Park earlier this year for the Asics Clovis meet, and they were only 18 points behind Dana Hills there.  Davis trailed Jesuit by just 10 points in the Sac Joaquin finals, though, which could mean the Blue Devils are also in contention for the top 5.

Individually, it would be a huge upset if anyone got past Phillip Rocha.  The Arcadia senior continues to roll, posting the top times in every meet he has run even when he doesn't necessarily always face the other elite runners.  Last weekend, Spencer Dodds (Great Oak) gave Rocha a really good race, staying within two seconds of the #2-ranked runner in the nation, while Garrett Reynolds (Ventura) was the only other guy to break 15 on the Mt. SAC course.   The LA City Section puts up a potential top-5 runner in Paul Luevano (Venice), who has a huge time from a flat 3 mile course that seems to indicate great potential.  The top contender to the Southern Section individuals, though, is most likely Davis' Michael Vernau, who has earned respect with big races all season; he won the SJS by 20 seconds.  If it's not Vernau pushing Rocha, then it could be Eduardo "Lalo" Herrera (Madera South), who was 4th last year and ran roughshod over the Central Section a week ago.  Interestingly, two top returners from two different teams have struggled to stay ahead of their own teammates this season; Jake Ogden was 3rd last year for Dana Hills and could be rounding into top form just in time, while Sean Kurdy has seen Ben Holland take up the role of #1 runner for Jesuit.

Division 1 Girls Preview:


Written By: Jeff George

The biggest question of the meet is very simple: will Fiona O'Keeffe run?  After a spectacular start to the season that saw her post performances that led the nation at the time (her 3 mile time still does), the Davis senior has not raced since October 7th due to some nagging shin pain.  The word was that she could have raced two weeks, but was held out to try to complete her recovery (as her team did not need her to advance).  Even if she is back, will she be sharp enough to contend for the title after such a long break from racing?  It might not matter, because her best 5K is 32 seconds faster than anyone else in the state!  In her absence, teammate Sofia Castiglioni established herself as a potential top-5 runner individually.  One wild card in the individual competition: Kristen Leung (Lowell) clocked 17:42 while winning the San Francisco Section by over 2 minutes, and could have even more in the tank when she has competition around her.  Of course, you have to expect Brooke Starn (Monte Vista) to be right in the thick of things after she posted the best time of all the girls at the Mt. SAC Invite earlier this fall (not to mention a commanding win in the NCS Meet of Champions).

Will any of those individuals be able to stand up to the onslaught of Southern Section talent?  Freshman Chloe Arriaga (Walnut) claimed the individual title last weekend in a mild upset, holding off Emily Virtue (Burroughs Burbank). Great Oak has two individuals that could threaten the top 5, but they seemed to hold back to run together as a team last weekend.  The Wolfpack's most consistent performer up front all season has been Evelyn Mandel, although you can never count Destiny Collins out (after all, she was 3rd last year).  Although she didn't have her best race last weekend, Holly Lung (Arcadia) has put up some big times this season and should be a factor at Woodward Park.

The team competition hinges on that initial question above, and this is one of the few divisions in the state meet where the Southern Section does NOT have several top-5 quality teams.  Defending champion Great Oak, ranked 2nd in the nation, dominated last weekend and advanced easily, posting a 124-point victory over Vista Murrieta.  The only other team from the Southern Section that could make a splash is Arcadia, who finished 6th on a rough day at Mt. SAC last Saturday but has established more than enough credibility with several strong regular-season performances.  The team that really has a chance (however small) to dethrone the Wolfpack is Davis, and then only if O'Keeffe is racing and running well; the Blue Devils rolled up only 23 points at their section finals without Fiona, but they have no shot at a state title unless they're at full strength.  Starn's Monte Vista team won the North Coast Meet of Champions solidly over San Ramon Valley, and the Mustangs should be in the top 5 this Saturday.  Likewise for two Central Section powers, Clovis North and Buchanan - they battled to the wire at their section final last Thursday, with the Broncos claiming a 4-point victory (and don't underestimate Lauren Moffitt as an individual, either, as she won by 25 seconds).

Division 2 Boys Preview:

Written By: Jeff George

The top 10 individuals from the 2014 D2 race are gone - 9 of them were seniors, and Garrett Reynolds has moved into Division 1.  That means the door is wide open as far as the individual championship contenders go, and it could be Dylan Scarsone (Canyon Anaheim Hills) that walks through it.  After a convincing win at the Southern Section finals, Scarsone has to be brimming with confidence, while some of the earlier contenders in the division have struggled lately.  Runners like Ryan Tate (Saugus), Andrew Clusserath (Rocklin), and Stephen Khan (Ayala) all posted eye-opening performances at some point during the season, but none won their sectional.  Meanwhile, the Southern Section can also claim Cole Hoff (Agoura) and Scarsone's teammate Chance Lamberth as potential contenders.  Look to the Bay Area for two more strong challengers: Andy Ehrenburg (Redwood) is the North Coast champ and the top returner from last year's race, and Justin Robison (Lynbrook) had a monster race at Crystal Springs while winning the Central Coast finals.

Scarsone and Lamberth aren't just individual contenders, either - they lead a Canyon (Anaheim Hills) team that has a legitimate shot at the championship.  The Comanches will have to overcome Southern Section champion West Torrance to win, something they could not do last weekend.  In fact, all 7 advancing teams from Mt. SAC look like potential top-10 squads at Woodward Park, setting the stage for another potential Southern Section domination of this division.  Mira Costa grades out particularly well in our virtual meet, but they barely held off Loyola and Claremont last Saturday.  West Ranch has had some strong performances this season, and let's not forget that Agoura finished 2nd in Division 3 last year.

Who could potentially break up this potent Southern Section cartel?  Bella Vista looked strong in taking the Sac Joaquin finals, and St. Francis (Mountain View) emerged from an intense Aside from those two, all of the section finals races in this division were highly competitive with relatively high scores and no dominant teams.  That doesn't bode well for the state's ability to deny the Southern Section another multi-team sweep of the top 6, as they had in 2014.

Division 2 Girls Preview:

Written By: Jeff George

The battle between Saugus and Serrano has raged all season, and it should come to a peak this weekend.  Saugus is the defending state champion and also won last weekend's Southern Section title narrowly.  Serrano was 4th last year but has been neck-and-neck with their rival all season, as evidenced by their scant 4-point loss at Mt. SAC last Saturday.  The next group of teams was over 70 points behind these two, making them the favorites to battle it out for the title in Fresno.  That second cluster includes Claremont, Mira Costa, and Capistrano Valley, all of which are capable of making the top 5 at Woodward Park.

Interestingly, the top non-Southern Section contenders also battled in pairs in their respective section finals. Bella Vista defeated St. Francis (Sacramento) by only 9 points in the SJS finals two weekends ago (which could mean that the teams will be better-rested than their counterparts from SoCal).  Granada won by 15 over Redwood in the North Coast Meet of Champions, as the two teams pulled away from the rest of the field.  Finally, Westview held off Mt. Carmel by 5 points for the San Diego Section title.  If the section results hold true, expect Bella Vista and Granada to crack the top 4, and then there will be quite a scrum for the remaining spots in the top 10.  However, it's not at all out of the question to see the second-place team from any of those sections run well and move up.

Individually, this should be Amanda Gehrich's race to lose.  The Tesoro senior is the top returner from this race in 2014, and she has dominated the Southern Section all season, with her only losses coming to out-of-state runners at Woodbridge and Nike Portland.  In fact, the closest anyone has come to beating Gehrich was last weekend, when Claire Graves (Citrus Valley) pushed her to the limit before losing by only 4 seconds.  Nicole Zielinski (Canyon Anaheim Hills) also has a chance to make the top 5 this weekend, and Stephanie Ortega (Segerstrom) was 5th in the state last year (although she has struggled a bit this season).  With only three clear Southern Section individual contenders, that provides an opportunity to runners like Megan McCandless (Granada), the North Coast champion, and Gillian Meeks (Gunn), who won the Central Coast finals.  The San Diego Section sends us two potential top-10 runners in Nia Akins (Rancho Bernardo) and Alex Calegari (Poway), and you can't forget that Kendall Derry (Bella Vista) was a Foot Locker finalist in 2014 (and her season best of 18:14 came on a challenging course).  Glennis Murphy (Redwood) should be in the mix, as well, and freshman Devianna Salcedo (McFarland) could be a dark horse candidate in this race after cruising to a 30-second win in the Central Section finals.

Division 3 Boys Preview:

Written By: Jeff George

Austin Tamagno
has been ranked in the top 3 in the nation all fall, although he has yet to square off against any of the other top runners.  That trend continues in Woodward Park, as the Brea Olinda senior is again a heavy favorite.  Tamagno is the defending champion, running 20 seconds faster than the next-best returner from the 2014 meet, and he hasn't lost a race all season.  Last weekend Austin overcame a capable challenger in Callum Bolger (San Luis Obispo), who is poised to be in the top 5 this weekend.  Earlier this season, Joaquin Martinez De Pinillos (Cathedral Catholic) looked like a potential contender, too, but he was beaten by Joshua Litwiller (La Costa Canyon) at the San Diego Section finals. David Frisbie (Kennedy Fremont) took the North Coast Section title convincingly, thereby establishing himself as a strong candidate for a podium finish.  Another guy to watch: Salem Bouhassoun (Mission), the San Francisco champion, ran very well at Stanford back in September.

Brea Olinda is far from a one-trick pony, as they also have very good depth that makes the Wildcats heavy favorites for the team title.  Paso Robles was able to stay pretty close in the Southern Section finals, though, enough to make them a threat to finish in the top 3.  Baldwin Park finished 3rd last weekend at Mt. SAC, comfortably ahead of the rest of the Southern Section pack, but just a bit too far behind the front two to be considered title contenders; nonetheless, the top 5 is definitely within their grasp.  Then follows a cluster of 4 teams, all of them good enough to get into the top 10, with Palos Verdes at the front.

There is definitely a gap between the top two and the rest of the Southern Section teams, but will it be big enough for the top teams from other sections to get onto the podium?  Campolindo looked very strong while winning the North Coast team title, defeating potential top-10 teams Las Lomas and Piner (a dark horse team that could surprise some teams on Saturday).  La Costa Canyon has been better know for the success of its girls' team lately, but the Maverick boys won an SDS championship solidly over a good Cathedral Catholic team, and they could be in the top 10 this weekend.  Don't be surprised if Vista Del Lago sneaks into the top 10 with a good race, and I think Shasta is underrated this year (and much stronger than last year, when they finished 22nd).
 

Division 3 Girls Preview:


Written By: Jeff George

This could be the one race where the Southern Section is matched or exceeded by equal numbers of talented teams from around the state.  La Costa Canyon nearly ran a perfect score in the San Diego Section finals, putting 7 in the top 9 on a tough Balboa Park course, and they are legitimate title contenders after moving down from Division 2, where they finished 6th last year.  Central Coast champion Aptos is for real, as well, and it could come down to those two teams for the title Saturday.  Despite heavy losses to graduation, NCS winner Campolindo still has a team capable of making the top 10, as does Vista Del Lago, the SJS champion.

Every year there are some that say the Southern Section's reliance on a rugged Mt. SAC course tires out the runners.  This year, the prelims were run at Riverside City for that very reason, and it could make the section's teams even stronger.  That would help Esperanza a lot, after the Aztecs had to give everything they had to get past Palos Verdes at the finals last weekend.  Will Esperanza have enough gas left to build on that momentum and make a run at the state title?  If not, Palos Verdes could return to the top of the Southern Section contenders list.  You can't really rule out Moorpark, either, as they look like a top-5 quality team in this division.  Oak Park and Corona Del Mar both have the potential to crack the top 10.

Individually, Marea Zlatunich (Aptos) has the fastest times this season for both 3 Miles and 5K, but it was her teammate Matti Peoples that took the CCS individual win.  Defending D3 champion Chloe Hansel (Las Lomas) finished 3rd in her section, but you have to consider her a contender for the podium again.  Erica Schroeder (San Marcos) is the best from the Southern Section, and should be in the lead pack to contend for a spot in the top 5.

Division 4 Boys Preview:


Written By: Albert Caruana

This is a very interesting division and one where the Southern Section schools might be unlikely underdogs heading to Saturday's race. The very slight favorite might be San Diego Section champion,
 Sage Creek. They won the SDS over fellow top 10 contender Valley Center by a score of 34 to 46. Up north, Sir Francis Drake (NCS) (a severely under ranked team all season) handily won the North Coast Section championship and will be aiming squarely their first ever podium finish on Saturday. The surprise winner of the Southern Section meet was Harvard-Westlake which finished ahead of pre-race favorites Santa Ynez, Bishop Amat, and Foothill Technology. Central Coast Section champion Half Moon Bay seems to be rolling at the right time and has the depth to withstand an off day or two by one of their top 7. From past experience in this division, look for a surprise winner which may be one of the listed teams above or not. It has happened before.

The race for the individual title in this division should be quite competitive and fast. The pre-meet favorite will be Southern Section champion, Andrew Burkhardt of JSerra. He finished a few seconds ahead of Moses Bojorquez of Foothill Technology and these two will be upfront once again, each chasing their first state individual title. NCS champ Jeremy Leary of Sir Francis Drake is battle tested with tough races at his own league (MCAL) as well as the section final. El Molino's Brian Schulz was leading Leary at the NCS MOC meet when he was mislead by a course monitor. 2-time Central Coast Section champion Roman Munoz of King City looked fantastic at his section final and seems to be trending upwards after a few mid-season losses. Two more runners that will be aiming for a low individual finish to help their team scoring are Robbie Santoyo of Bishop Amat and Johnny Jimenez of Santa Ynez.

Division 4 Girls Preview:


Written By: Albert Caruana

The most consistent team in this division has been Mayfield (SS). They finished in 2nd place last year while competing in Division V and will hope to follow the same blue print established by last year's Division IV champion, Central Valley Christian (CS). In 2013, CVC finished in 2nd place in Division V behind Branson School (NCS). Moved up to Division IV by their own section in 2014, CVC didn't let the larger schools deter them and won the state championship. Last year, Mayfield finished in 2nd place behind Flintridge Prep (SS) in Division V and this year will be chasing their school's first state XC championship here. Last week, Mayfield won the coveted CIF SS title edging out Bishop Amat (SS) by 30 points, 50 to 80. Earlier in the season, Mayfield lost a narrow 2 point contest to Santa Cruz (CCS) at the Stanford Invitational but won the Division IV sweepstakes race at the Mt. SAC Invitational. Mayfield also steamrolled the field at the Clovis Invitational with their typical tight pack. Central Coast Section champion Santa Cruz has had individual success at the CA state XC meet but will be looking for a team podium finish here. They are led by one of the best runners in the state, Cate Ratliff. The 2nd place team at CCS, the San Lorenzo Valley girls, have certainly achieved success at this meet with 5 state team titles (99, 00, 04, 05 and 13). The North Coast Section champion, the Piedmont Highlanders, finished in 5th place last year and will be aiming for a top 3 finish here. Two teams that are dangerous underdogs are JSerra and Foothill Technology. JSerra has finished in the top 5 since 2009 including 3 straight state tiles (2010-2012). They finished in 6th place at the SS final but teams have finished in this spot before and moved up mightily at the CA state XC meet (ie. 2013 Saugus girls). Foothill Technology is now led by coach Ken Reeves, who aside from being one of the voices at Mt. SAC Invite, has achieved more success previously at Nordhoff (19 podium finishes including 11 state titles) than most coaches can dream of in their sleep.

The individual favorite will be Santa Cruz senior, Cate Ratliff. She finished an undefeated campaign that included a course record at Toro Park and the 2nd fastest times ever on the Pinto Lake and Crystal Springs courses. She also recorded a 16:49.7 solo effort at the Stanford Invitational and will be looking to claim the top spot after her 4th place finish last year. Her main competitor will be McKinleyville senior, Morgin Coonfield. At last week's NCS MOC, Coonfield recorded the fastest time for any division on the Hayward course with her 17:01.7 winning time. She is a fearless racer and will give Ratliff all she can handle. Niki Iyer of Harker finished in 5th place last year at the state meet and was more than competitive at the CCS final. Section champions Gabby Satterlee of Central Valley Christian (CS) and Cassi Land of Sonora (SJS) will also be in the mix for a top 5 finish as will Ratliff's teammate, Mari Friedman.

Division 5 Boys Preview:


Written By: Albert Caruana

It's not often that one school sweeps both divisional races at the California State Meet but if the Flintridge Prep girls do win their race, the FP boys will take care of business and complete the double victory for the Rebels. This will be their 5th state championship for the boys following their previous victories in 1998, 1999, 2002 and 2004. They finished in 3rd place last year behind Xavier Prep (SS) and St. Joseph Notre Dame (NCS) but a motivated group returned this year to finish the season undefeated against like sized schools. They even won the Division IV race at the Clovis Invitational vs one of the top ranked Division IV teams in state, Sage Creek (SDS). Their main opposition will come from the North Coast Section with a very fired up Marin Academy team. At last week's NCS MOC, MA won their first section title defeating the four-time defending section champion, St. Joseph Notre Dame. Both NCS teams will challenge for podium team finishes along with the SS 2nd place team, Desert Christian, defending state champion Xavier Prep and a much healthier College Prep (NCS) team. From the Central Coast Section, Crystal Springs Uplands School and St. Francis CCC tied at the section championship race and will both be looking to finish as high as possible in the top 10.

The race for the individual title will come down to two of the best runners in the state, regardless of divisions, Flintridge Prep's senior, Jack Van Scoter and St. Joseph Notre Dame junior, Cooper Teare. Van Scoter defeated Teare in their lone matchup this season at the Mt. SAC Invitational 14:45 to 14:48. Henry Fleming of Marin Academy proved last week that he won't be afraid to follow a hot early pace and will chase both front runners in hopes of a top 3 finish. College Prep senior Alex Glavin has rebounded nicely from an early season injury and will be in the mix for a top 5 finish along with Eli Horwitz of Stuart Hall, Dawson Reckers of Athenian, Isaiah Lozano of St. Bonaventure and Peter Callan of Thacher.
 

Division 5 Girls Preview:


Written By: Albert Caruana

The Flintridge Prep girls made the podium 3 times (2003, 2004 and 2013) before finally winning the ultimate prize last season over league rival Mayfield. This year, FP has been the dominant team all season and they will be heavy favorites to repeat as state champions. The contenders for state meet podium finishes will come mostly from the North Coast Section. Newly crowned section champion, St. Joseph Notre Dame, has had quite a bit of success on the boys' side but now have a competitive girls' team to boot. If team scoring stopped after the third runner, SJND would be declared the team winner in a landslide. With five runners scoring, they seem be the favorites to finish second behind Flintridge Prep but with 3 runners potentially in the top 10 and with 3 freshmen as part of their top 5, that makes them very dangerous. Lick-Wilmerding will attempt to claim another podium finish and will need to stay ahead of NCS rivals, Branson, Sonoma Academy, and Urban and the 2nd place finisher at the SS meet, Pacifica Christian. San Diego Section champion Francis Parker just missed making making the podium last year with a fourth place finish and will need to navigate through all the NCS teams in order for them to capture the school's first state meet trophy.
 
The favorite to win her 2nd straight individual champion is lightly raced sophomore, Rylee Bowen of Sonoma Academy. She won last week's NCS MOC meet over Kiera Marshall of St. Joseph Notre Dame and it wasn't easy as Bowen edged out Marshall by less than five seconds, 17:29.7 to 17:34.2. Both runners finished first and second at last year's state meet and look for the same finish this year. Those two should be well ahead of the field with the chase pack consisting of NCS runners, Grace Dailey of Branson, Brianna Bourne of College Prep as well as Marshall's teammates, Emily Perez and Beatrice Levy. Section champions will make up the rest of the pack with Southern Section champ, Mazzy Genovese of Rolling Hills Prep, Sac-Joaquin Section champ Katarina Stashyn of Vacaville Christian and Central Coast Section champ, Hana Marsheck of Woodside Priory.