Track and Field Blogs - Justin Kopunek

12^th IAAF World Championships in Athletics – Berlin, Germany 2009

Preview of Day 1 – 15 August 2009

Day 1 features, among other events, finals in the Women’s 10,000m and Men’s Shot Put. The action starts at 4:05 AM Eastern Standard Time, so many will be hours from waking up, or just getting to bed, but luckily the afternoon session, with many of the marquee events, does not start until 12:15 PM EST. Below is a summary of what to look out for on the first day of this 9 day World Championship.

Event Finals

Event: Women’s 10,000m 1:25 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia) 2008 Olympic Champion: Tirunesh Dibaba (Ethiopia) 2009 World Leader: Meselech Melkamu (Ethiopia) 29:53.80

American Contingent: Amy Yoder Begley, Shalane Flanagan, Katie McGregor

Top International Conteders: Tirunesh Dibaba, Meselech Melkamu, Meseret Defar (Ethiopia), Elvan Abeylegesse (Turkey), Florence Kiplagat (Kenya), Linet Masai (Kenya), Wude Ayalew (Ethiopia)

Outlook: Tirunesh Dibaba is virtually unbeatable at international track championships. In the 10,000m she has won gold at the last three major championships (Beijing ’08, Osaka ’07, and Helsinki ’05) including 10k/5k double wins in ’05 and ’08, but reports say she is likely too hurt to compete. The front pack may look like the Ethiopian National Championships with Meselech Melkamu and Meseret Defar both running under 30 minutes already this year. Melkamu is an up and coming star who could upset the reigning champ. Defar is a veteran and just about the only women in the world who can beat a healthy Dibaba. This is the first year the 5k Olympic and World Champ has run the 10,000, so she will be a major threat to Dibaba, especially considering Dibaba has had injury problems all year, including this past week. The most recent reports have said Dibaba will not be able to start the race. Ethiopian born Elvan Abeylegesse, who competes for Turkey, looks to break up the compatriots for a medal spot. She won silver in Osaka at 10,000m and in both the 5k and 10k in Beijing. She pushed Dibaba to the edge in the Olympic final last summer, making it the fastest women’s 10k in Olympic history.

The top Kenyan hopes, Florence Kiplagat and Linet Masai were 1-2 at World Cross this year, defeating Melkamu. Masai has run some fast 5Ks this year and was 4th in the Olympic 10K last year running a world junior record. Just ahead of her in that race was Shalane Flanagan of the US, who hopes to make magic happen twice. Her races since her coaching switch have not been as great as one would hope, but she ran a stellar 14:47 5k indoors and was probably training through the early season meets. It is interesting to note that an American woman has grabbed bronze in the last two global track championship 10,000s. Other non-African contenders hoping to get on the podium are Kiwi Kim Smith and Russian’s Liliya Shobukhova and Mariya Konovalova, but with 4 of the fastest 5 women over 10,000m running in this race will make that feat quite difficult.

Likely Medalists: The 10,000 is a long race and there are many variables that can take an obvious top 3 runner out of contention. Whether the pace is quick or fast is also a major factor in who makes the podium, a slow pace can allow for a few more surprises. A healthy Dibaba, the 5,000m World Record holder, would win this race at any pace, but she is not going to toe the line. If she doesn't, it will still be a great race with 3 other sub-30 women. Below assumes Dibaba has a DNS.

1. Defar 2. Melkamu 3. Abeylegesse

Event: Men’s Shot Put 2:15 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Reese Hoffa (USA) 2008 Olympic Champion: Tomasz Majewski (Poland) 2009 World Leader: Tomasz Majewski (Poland) 21.95m

American Contingent: Reese Hoffa, Christian Cantwell, Dan Taylor, Adam Nelson

Top International Conteders: Tomasz Majewski, Andrei Mikhnevich (Belerus), (Sultan Abdulmajeed Al-Hebshi (Saudi Arabia), Ralf Bartels (Germany)

Outlook: The favorites are clearly 2008 Olympic Champion Tomasz Majewski and the Americans. Reese Hoffa is the defending champ and as been throwing well all year, as has the Olympic silver medalist Christian Cantwell. Dan Taylor is having his best year to date and defeated Majewski at Prefontaine. Despite only throwing 21.07m so far this season, do not count Olympic and World silver medalist Adam Nelson out of the hunt either, as he was throwing over 22 meters just one year ago. Include Belerus’ Andrei Mikhnevich in that category as well. He has not thrown his best thus far, he has managed to put himself onto the podium the past 2 years, placing 3rd in Osaka and Beijing. He is definitely a competitor who shows up at big meets. Ralf Bartels will have his countrymen cheering him on in Berlin, which will defiantly provide the extra adrenaline necessary for a great shot put.

Likely Medalists: Field events are unique to running events as one gets multiple attempts, but can foul as well. I will try to counter any US bias in this event as best I can, but Cantwell does have what it takes to win this season.

1. Majewski 2. Cantwell 3. Hoffa

Preliminary Action to Watch For

The first day of the women’s heptathlon gets underway as the first 4 events (Hurdles, HJ, Shot, 200m) are completed for this 2 day event. This is more than half of the competition, so good positioning and staying healthy in day one is crucial. The first rounds of many of the running events take place, as well. They are the women’s steeplechase, 400m and the men’s 1,500m, 100m, 400H. Asbel Kiprop (1,500/800) and Bernard Lagat (1,500/5,000) begin their tough doubles and Tyson Gay and Usain Bolt begin and will hopefully make it through the first 2 rounds safely so we get to see them match-up in the finals on Day 2. Also, Jenny Barringer will have some people to run with in the steeple for the first time this year, so we hope she avoids trouble with the barriers and sails on through to the finals. For field the women’s pole vault and triple jump and the men’s hammer throw all have qualification rounds. The men’s 20k Race Walk final will also take place. Hopefully we se some good competition on Day 1 and check back for a preview of Day 2 action and all the Flotrack coverage of Day 1 coming in from Berlin