Track and Field Blogs - Justin Kopunek

12^th IAAF World Championships in Athletics – Berlin, Germany 2009

Preview of Day 3 – 17 August 2009

Now that the meet is well underway and many preliminary rounds hove been completed, we have our first day whose program is packed with finals. Throwing, jumping, steepling, sprinting, distance; whatever your interest may be, there is something for you on Day 3 (please excuse the rhyme). It could be anywhere from a banner day, to a medal drought for the Americans as many question marks will be answered today. The top two will be regarding the top distance runners from this past collegiate season who will have stiff competition for the first time this year in their respective events. The US will take a hit before the day even starts as Olympic Silver medalist Jenn Stuczynski had to pull out of the pole vault before the meet began due to injury. Outside of the Americans, Ethiopia’s Olympic and World silver medalist Sileshi Sihine suffered a similar fate to Stuczynski and his wife Tirunesh Dibaba, as he had to pull out of the 10K earlier this week.

Event Finals

Event: Men’s Hammer Throw 12:05 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Ivan Tsikhan (Belarus) 2008 Olympic Champion: Primoz Kozmus (Slovenia) 2009 World Leader: Krisztian Pars (Hungary) 81.43m

American Contingent: A.G. Kruger, Thomas Freeman, Mike Mai

Top International Conteders: Krisztian Pars, Primoz Kozmus, Aleksey Zagornyi (Russia), Igor Sokolov (Latvia), Szymon Ziolkowski (Poland), Igor Vinichenko (Russia), Pavel Kryvitski (Belarus)

Outlook: Undefeated through over 15 competitions this season, Krisztian Pars looks to continue that streak in Berlin. He holds the 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 10th best throws this year. The only men that seem to be standing in his way are those in the 3rd and 9th positions. In the #3 spot is the young Belarusian, Yury Shayunou. He has improved over 3 meters from last year with his new best at 80.72 meters, but that is his only throw ever over 80m and he was unable to get close to that throw in the Qualification round, as he failed to make the finals. #9 is Olympic Champion Primos Kozmus (Slovenia) has thrown over 82 meters the previous two years, but has not been near that this year, throwing over 80m only once. Kozmus has shown he can perform well in a championship setting, but Pars has defeating him in their 4 head-to-head competitions this year. The only other throwers that seem within striking distance of Pars are Igor Sokolov of Latvia and Aleksey Zagornyi of Russia, who have both gone over 80 meters this season, but Sokolov did not make the final. Szymon Ziolkowski (Poland), Igor Vinichenko (Russia), and Pavel Kryvitski (Belarus) did well in the qualifying round and have lifetime bests over 80 meters. Ziolkowski is a former Olympic Champion and can alway be considered a favorite.

Likely Medalists: Pars is the obvious choice for gold and Kozmus’ championship record gives him the edge over the rest of the field. An off day from Pars and Kozmus should be a top the podium.

1. Pars 2. Kozmus 3. Ziolkowski

Event: Women’s 3,000m Steeplechase 2:30 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Yekaterina Volkova (Russia) 2008 Olympic Champion: Gulnara Galkina (Russia) 2009 World Leader: Matra Dominguez (Spain) 9:09.39

American Contingent: Jenny Barringer, Bridget Franek, Lindsey Anderson

Top International Conteders: Gulnara Galkina, Matra Dominguez, Yuliya Zarudneva (Russia), Ruth Bisibori (Kenya), Zemzem Ahmed (Ethiopia)

Outlook: Before the prelims, many were thinking, ‘Can the Russians sweep?’ They are as dominant as the Kenyans are in the Men’s Steeplechase, but it seems that women in other countries are beginning to catch up as this event, which has only been held at 3 Global Championships to date (Berlin will be the 4th). The Russian women went 1-3-4 in Beijing, 1-2 in Osaka, and ran 2-3-4 in the world this year, so a sweep was feasible. That was before the prelims. Yekaterina Volkova is the defending champ and Olympic bronze medalist, but she didn’t make it to the finals! Luckily for the Russians, her teammate, Gulnara Galkina made it through easily. Galkina is the Olympic Champ, world record holder, and has only lost once in the steeplechase (Osaka ’07). She breezed into the final running the faststed time in the prelims by 4 seconds. The next best Russian in the field, Yuliya Zarudneva, is not as experienced as the other two, but sits at 3rd on the World List with a 9:13.18 run in late July. She has improved over 40 seconds on her steeplechase time since last year and qualified for the finals giving her country a shot at taking 2 medals.

The Russian team is in the finals is formidable, but there are plenty of contenders that will be standing in their way. Leading the charge is Spaniard Marta Dominguez. Dominguez switched to the steeplechase last year after having a successful career at 5,000m. She looked great in the Olympic final last August, but hitting a barrier on the last lap caused her not to finish. She leads the world this year with a national record of 9:09.39, but the world leader was the had the slowest time of any running in the prelims who made it to the finals. Perhaps this means she will be well rested, running 25 seconds slower than her best. American Jenny Barringer will also be a factor up front. She has set huge personal bests in every even this year except the steeplechase. Judging by the 15:01/8:42 indoors and 3:59.9 in June, a huge personal best is waiting to be unleashed in Berlin. She has won ever steeplechase (and almost every race) she has been in this year and has yet to be pushed in the event. The Kenyan women will also look to steal some hardware from the Russians. With Olympic silver medalist Eunice Jepkorir not competing, the task will fall to 9:17.85 steepler Ruth Bisibori. Ethiopia’s Zemzem Ahmed was 7th in Beijing and won her preliminary heat which bodes well for the final. Also qualifying for the final was the host nations Antje Moldner who set a national record of 9:21.73 in the prelims.

Likely Medalists: I think this will be a very tight battle up front, but Galkina’s track record is too much to deny. Volkova also has a great championship record, so her being out opens the door for some new blood on the podium. Barringer’s 3:59 is undeniable and will be tough to beat that last lap. Neither Barringer nor Dominguez looked great in the prelims, but getting to the final is all that matters.

1. Galkina 2. Dominguez 3. Barringer

Event: Women’s Pole Vault 12:45 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Yelena Isinbayeva (Russia) 2008 Olympic Champion: Yelena Isinbayeva (Russia) 2009 World Leader: Yelena Isinbayeva (Russia) 4.85m (5.00m Indoors)

American Contingent: Chelsea Johnson, Stacy Dragila, Jillian Schwartz, (Jenn Stuczynski has withdrawn)

Top International Conteders: Yelena Isinbayeva (Russia), Fabiana Murer (Brazil), Anna Rowgowska (Poland), Monika Pyrek (Poland), Yuliya Golubchikova (Russia), Silke Spiegelburg (Germany)

Outlook: The invincible Yelena Isinbayeva became mortal this year. She is the world record holder, Olympic Champ, World Champ, world leader, but she is still a less dominating figure than she was a year ago. Her season best (4.85m) is far off her lifetime best (5.05m) which came last year. She was also defeated by Anna Rowgowska of Poland in her last outing in London. On top of that, Olympic silver medalist Jenn Stuckynski of the US was vaulting well over 4.85m least year and could pose a major threat in Berlin if she returned to that form. Unfortunately for Stuckynski and the US, an Achilles injury has caused her to withdraw from the World Champs. Rowgowska has beaten Isinbayeva already this season and could do it again at worlds, and her teammate, Monika Pyrek is right behind her on the world list. Brazil’s Fabiana Murer is closest to Isinbayeva on the world list and will be on the podium if she can duplicate that performance in Berlin. Always a powerhouse in the pole vault, Russia may squeeze 2 on to the medal stand, with Yuliya Golubchikova finishing second to her countrywoman in Rome with a 4.70m clearance. For the Americans, Chelsea Johnson is in the final and vaulting well. She could place well if she gets up around her PR, or betters it.

Likely Medalists: Until someone beats her when she is having a good day, Isinbayeva is the obvious pick for #1. Rowgowska’s win in London over the world record holder will giver her confidence going into Berlin.

1. Isinbayeva 2. Rowgowska 3. Pyrek

Event: Men’s 10,000m 2:50 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia) 2008 Olympic Champion: Kenenisa Bekele (Ethiopia) 2009 World Leader: Josephat Ndambiri (Kenya) 26:57.63

American Contingent: Galen Rupp, Dathan Ritzenhein, Tim Nelson

Top International Conteders: Kenenisa Bekele, Micah Kogo (Kenya), Moses Masai (Kenya), Abebe Dinkesa (Ethiopia), Zersenay Tadese (Eritrea), Gebregziabher Gebremariam (Ethiopia), Bernard Kipyego (Kenya)

Outlook: One can expect that is someone is the defending World and Olympic Champion and they hold the world record that they would be considered the favorite for the event. This is definitely the case here with Kenenisa Bekele. Bekele has yet to lose a 10,000m final and has won the past 5 International 10k titles (’03, ’04, ’05, ’07, ’08). He is the class of the field and he will have to falter somewhere to give up his title. If he does, there are a few that will be there to capitalize. Ethiopian Sileshi Sihine should have the middle name ‘silver’ as he has placed second at the last 3 World Championship and last 2 Olympic 10ks. Bekele won all of those races. Despite being compatriots, Sihine is probably sick of playing second fiddle and would like his time in the spotlight. The other members of the Ethiopian team will be in contention as well. Gebregziabher Gebremariam won the World Cross Country Championships this year in Amman and Imane Merga has run 26:30, but that was back in 2005. Reports regarding Sihine being too injured to race are being confirmed today and it seems, if true, is a big hit for the Ethiopian team.

The top hope for Kenya to score a medal in this event may be Micah Kogo. The Bronze medalist in Beijing has not run a 10,000m on the track this year, but his 27:01 World Record road 10 Kilometer performance was more than enough to earn his spot on the team. His teammate, Moses Masai, will be looking for redemption after finishing 4th in Beijing, less than 1 hundredth of a second off of bronze medalist Kogo. Exactly one second behind them in that race was Eritrea’s Zersenay Tadese, who should not be counted out. Tadese performs well at Global Championships, placing 3rd in at the 2004 Olympics, 6th at Worlds in 2005 and 4th in 2007. Leading the non-African contingent will be Galen Rupp of the US and Collis Birmingham of Australia. Rupp finished 13th in this event last year and has improved immeasurably. He was not really pushed during the spring season, so it is unsure exactly how fit he is, but as long as the long collegiate season did not wear on him, he should be mixing it up in the top 10. Birmingham is also having a breakthrough year as he has become the second fastest Aussie over 5,000m, behind Craig Mottram.

Likely Medalists: History has show us that Bekele and Sihine know how to give Ethiopia the top 2 spots, but with Sihine likely out, will another Ethiopian runner be able to fill that void, or will it be a runner from Kenya or Eretria? I am also interested to see where Dathan Ritzenhein finishes under new coach Alberto Salazar. He was 9th in the Olympic Marathon last year, so it will be nice to see if he can get close to that with only a few months of track work.

1. Bekele 2. Kogo 3. Masai

Event: Women’s Triple Jump 2:00 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Yargelis Savigne (Cuba) 2008 Olympic Champion: Francoise Mbango Etone (Cameroon) 2009 World Leader: Nadezhda Alekhina (Russia) 15.14m

American Contingent: Shakeema Welsch, Erica McLain, Shani Marks

Top International Conteders: Savigne, Nadezhda Alekhina, Anna Pyatykh (Russia), Tatyana Lebedeva (Russia), Athanasia Perra (Greece), Mabel Gay (Cuba), Biljana Topic (Serbia)

Outlook: After faltering at the Olympics last summer, Yargelis Savigne looks primed to defend her World Title. The Cuban turned in 9 of the worlds best performances this year and is undefeated. Of those top 10 performances, however, the one spot Savigne does not hold is #1. That belongs to Nadezhda Alekhina, which was jumped at the Russian Champs. Like many performances across the board at the Russian Champs this year, this performance is extraordinarily better than any other mark turned in by her this year. Her 15.14m leap was a personal best by over 2 feet and a season best by almost a meter. Her teammate, Anna Pyatykh is also a medal threat as she placed 2nd in Beijing and 4th in Osaka. Last years Olympic champ Francoise Mbango Etone, on the other hand, does not look like she will be repeating her performance. She has been well off last years marks and place 6th in her one outing this year. Etone will be Cameroon’s real shot at a medal if she can perform like she did in Beijing one year ago. Cuba will try to match the strong Russian contingent in this event. Behind Savigne, Mabel Gay has been consistently at the top this year, with more jumps in the top 25 ranks this year than any woman other that her compatriot. Athanasia Perra is also one to keep an eye on, as she has shown she can jump well at a championship when she won the Mediterranean Games this year.

Likely Medalists: Despite her huge jump at Russian Nationals, Alekhina has yet to show she can jump that far consistently and in a major international meet. Savigne and Gay have been consistently good all year and Pyatykh has proven herself at past championships.

1. Savigne 2. Gay 3. Pyatykh

Event: Women’s 100m Dash 3:35 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Veronica Campbell-Brown (Jamaica) 2008 Olympic Champion: Shelly-Ann Fraser (Jamaica) 2009 World Leader: Kerron Stewart (Jamaica) 10.75

American Contingent: Carmelita Jeter, Muna Lee, Lauryn Williams

Top International Conteders: Kerron Stewart, Shelly-Ann Fraser, Kelly-Ann Baptiste (Trinidad and Tobago), Veronica Campbell-Brown, Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie (Bahamas), Chandra Sturrup (Bahamas)

Outlook: For a while there, it looked like Olympic Champ Shelly-Ann Fraser would not be allowed to compete. The Jamaican Amateur Athletics Association requested she and teammates be ejected from the meet because they skipped mandatory pre-Worlds camp. The IAAF later intervened, getting them reinstated in the meet in order to maintain the quality of competition. The JAAA will sanction the athletes after the meet, but it allows Fraser to hold on to her position as the fastest woman in the world. She will have a tough time though, as countrywoman Kerron Stewart has been on fire this season. She 4 for 4 in Golden League meets and boasts a World leading PR of 10.75. That time ranks her?5th all time over 100m.

Stewart is beatable, however, as she has been beaten by two women this season. Fraser beat her at the Jamaican Championships running a World #2 10.88 into a headwind. She also has a lifetime best of 10.78 which she ran to win the 100m final at last summer’s Olympic Games. The other woman to have defeated her this season is Carmelita Jeter, who did so at the Prefontaine Classic with a wind-aided 10.85. Jeter is the US’s best hope of breaking up a Jamaican sweep. She has run personal best times this season with a wind-aided 10.78 and wind-legal 10.92. If Jamaica were to sweep, the candidate to complete the trifecta is reigning world champ Veronica Campbell-Brown. A major factor with Campbell-Brown will be how much she is recovered from a mid-season injury that has held her back this year. Also looking to break up the Jamaican sweep are 3 Caribbean women who have gone under 11 seconds this year. They are Trinidad and Tobago’s Kelly-Ann Baptiste (10.94), and the Bahaman pair of Debbie Ferguson-McKenzie (10.97) and Chandra Sturrup (10.99). Beyond Jeter, the American team consists of the 4th and 5th finishers from last year's Olympic 100m dash, Lauryn Williams and Muna Lee. Williams is a former World Champ and Olympic and World runner-up at this distance, so she is always a threat.

Likely Medalists: As long as these three make it through the rounds safely, they are the obvious choices to medal, but with so many women sub-11, one misstep will cost them a medal. Jeter beat Fraser to the line by a solid margin in the quarter final round, but Fraser showed last summer that she knows how to perfrom in the final.

1. Fraser 2. Stewart 3. Jeter

Preliminary Action to Watch For

Day 3 does not have a morning session, so the preliminary and qualification rounds for this day are limited. They are, how ever, some of the more exciting prelims of the meet. The women’s 400m H has its first round, but the rest are all semi-finals. The women’s 100m finalists are determined two and a half hours before the final goes off. Also, the women’s 800m and men’s 1,500m semi-finals will determine who makes it to the finals for a shot at a medal. All our American runners made it to the 2nd round of these two events so these will be very important rounds. Makes sure to check those to see is US medal hopefuls Maggie Vessey, Bernard Lagat, and all the others make it though to the final and keep with Flotrack for coverage of the day’s events.