Track and Field Blogs - Justin Kopunek

12th IAAF World Championship in Athletics – Berlin, Germany 2009

Preview of Day 5 – 19 August 2009

Can Bernard Lagat protect his title? How high up can the young American’s place in their first World 1,500m final? Will Dawn Harper come through big in the final for the second year in a row? Can one of the 2 Americans in the Men’s Discus final grab a surprise medal? With so many question marks in the air, it could be anywhere from a banner day for the American team to a disappointing one. The track finals begin with the Men’s 1,500m, where the three Americans will be making up 1/4th of the field. How many of the 4 American women make the 100m Hurdle final will depend on the semi-final earlier in the day. The Day will wrap up with the Women’s 800m final which seems to be the most up in the air final of the games so far.

Event: Men’s 1,500m Run 2:25 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Bernard Lagat (USA) 2008 Olympic Champion Asbel Kiprop (Kenya) 2009 World Leader: Augustine Choge (Kenya) 3:29.47

American Contingent: Bernard Lagat, Lopez Lomong, Leonel Manzano, Dorian Ulrey

Top International Contenders: Asbel Kiprop, Augustine Choge, Mehdi Baala (France), Amine Laalou (Moracco), Yusuf Saad Kamel (Bahrain), Deresse Mekonnen (Ethiopia), Abdelaati Iguider (Moracco)

Outlook: As awesome as watching Bolt and Bekele blow the competition out out of the water, it is a race like this 1,500m that is really exciting. The defending World Champ, reigning Olympic Champ and World Leader are three different runners and will all be present in the final. Asbel Kiprop has been great all season running a superb 3:48.50 mile back in June and is #2 in the world at 800m. His compatriot, Augustine Choge, will be looking to add some hardware to match his impressive personal bests after placing only 10th in the final in Beijing. One man in the field that already has some international hardware, Mehdi Baala of France has a lifetime best of 3:28.98 from 2003 and a season best of 3:30.96.

As the defending World Champion, Bernard Lagat leads a pack of 3 Americans in the finals. He has the most international experience of anybody in the race and that can go very far. He knows how to position himself well in the early stages and keep himself in the race. Lopez Lomong was a few ticks ahead of Lagat in the semi-final. He chopped a considerable amount of time off of his personal best this year, running 3:32.94 in Monaco. The last American in the final is Leonel Manzano. He actually has the slowest personal best of the runners in the final, but his race in the semi-final in which he match Kiprop’s kick over the final 200m proves he is much better than his PB would suggest. Morocco also has 3 athletes in the final and they are headed by Amine Laalou, who was an 800m runner until this year when he ran 3:31.56 this season. He has 1:43 second 800m speed and will be dangerous if you are near him with one lap to go. This is also true of Yusuf Saad Kamel who has ran 1:42.79 and placed 5th in the Olympic 800m last year. He has a personal best of 3:31.56 from this year.

Likely Medalists: It is very hard to say here, because this changes dramatically depending on how the race is taken out. Kiprop, Choge, Baala, and Lagat would all be reasonable picks to get on the podium, but expect at least one of the guys with a 3:31/3:32 personal best to breakthrough. It will most likely be Laalou or Kamel if the pace lags.

1. Kiprop 2. Choge 3. Lagat

Event: Men’s Discus Throw 2:10 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Gerd Kanter (Estonia) 2008 Olympic Champion Gerd Kanter (Estonia) 2009 World Leader: Gerd Kanter (Estonia) 71.64m

American Contingent: Casey Malone, Jarred Rome, Ian Waltz

Top International Contenders: Gerd Kanter, Virgiljus Alekna (Lithuania), Piotr Malachowski (Poland), Robert Harting (Germany), Zoltan Kovago (Hungary)

Outlook: Estonian Gerd Kanter has over 2 meters on the world this year, 8 of the 10 best throws, and is the reigning World and Olympic champions. Basically, if he loses this competition it will mean there was a complete disaster in the finals. This year, he is undefeated and he was virtually undefeated in 2008. The one man who was able to beat him last year will be the best shot for anyone other than Kanter winning here. That man is Virgiljus Alekna. The 37 year old Lithuanian veteran has an impressive record at global championships, winning gold in Sydney ‘00, Paris ‘03, Athens ‘04, and Helsinki ’05, silver in Athens ’97 and Edmonton ’01, bronze in Beijing ’08 and placing 4th in Osaka ‘07. The silver medalist from Beijing, Piotr Malachowski (Poland), has already thrown farther than last year, which means he is capable of grabbing another medal. American Casey Malone showed he can throw at a medal caliber lever when he launched a 68.49m throw, #4 in the world, back in May. He has yet to show consistency at that level, however. Jarred Rome will be joining Malone in the final after having the 4th best throw in the Qualification Round. A few athletes are in the same boat as Malone, with season bests over 67 meters. Robert Harting (Germany) and Zoltan Kovago (Hungary) will both be in contention if they can throw near their season best in Berlin.

Likely Medalists: Kanter has been so consistently good all season that him losing would be a major upset. The German throwers have been doing excellent so far with the crowd's support.

1. Kanter 2. Malachowski 3. Harting

Event: Women’s 100m Hurdles 3:15 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Michelle Perry (USA) 2008 Olympic Champion Dawn Harper (USA) 2009 World Leader: Lolo Jones (USA) 71.64m

American Contingent: Michelle Perry, Dawn Harper, Ginnie Powell, Damu Cherry

Top International Contenders: Sally McLellan (Australia), Pricilla Lopes-Schliep (Canada), Perdita Felicien (Canada), Brigitte Foster-Hylton (Jamaica), Delloreen Ennis-London (Jamaica)

Outlook: This is one of the few events where the world leader is not competing at the World Champs. That is the nature of the hurdling beast in the United States. Anyone American women in the top 5 in the country would be considered a favorite to get a medal. With that being said, an American woman might not win the Gold. The US women have not lost a World or Olympic 100m Hurdles since 2003 and there are a few women that would like to end that streak this year. Sally McLellan is one of those women. With pole vaulter Steve Hooker injured, McLellan is one of Australia’s best hopes for a gold medal. She came on very strong at the end of the season and ran a world #2 12.50 and has the fastest season best of anyone running in Berlin, as Lolo Jones did not make the US team. Fight behind McLellan on the world list is Pricilla Lopes-Schliep of Canada with a 12.51. Lopes teammate, Perdita Felicien can also mix things up in the finals. She has run 12.54 this season and won silver in Osaka. In Beijing last year, McLellan and Lopes-Schliep were second and third, respectively.

It was American Dawn Harper was the women in front of those two in China. She has had an up and down summer, but she was most definitely an underdog when she won last year. She ran a wind-aided 12.36 and legal 12.53 at USAs. The other American woman who has the best shot at keeping the crown in America is Damu Cherry who has run a wind-aided 12.44 and wind-legal 12.53 this season. After placing just outside the medals last year in 4th, you know she will be looking for redemption. American Michelle Perry is the defending champ, but well off her 2007 form, as is Ginnie Powell who was 2nd in the world that year. Perry failed to get out of the first round, but if Powell can get back to that level in Berlin, they will be dangerous.

Likely Medalists: This one is tough to call because Harper has shown at the US Champs and Olympics that she can perform when the pressure is on. McLellan, on the other hand, has been consistently great through out the European season, while Harper has not been. Lopes-Schliep could win this event as well. In the end of July, McLellan beat her in Monaco and later that week the results were reversed in Stockholm. Brigitte Foster-Hylton could suprise as she has been very god so far in Berlin.

1. Harper 2. Lopes-Schliep 3. McLellan

Event: Women’s 800m Run 3:35 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Janeth Jepkosgei (Kenya) 2008 Olympic Champion Pamela Jelimo (Kenya) 2009 World Leader: Caster Seymenya (South Africa) 1:56.72

American Contingent: Hazel Clark, Geena Gall, Maggie Vessey

Top International Contenders: Caster Semenya, Mariya Savinova (Russia), Janeth Jepkosgei, Yuliya Krevsun (Ukraine), Elisa Cusma Piccione (Italy), Jennifer Meadows (Great Britain), Mayte Martinez (Spain), Marilyn Okoro (Great Britain)

Outlook: The reigning Olympic Champion DNFed the semi-final. The reigning World Champ fell in the first round and #2 in the world ran the slowest time of any runner in the semi-final. From the sound of that, you would think the final would be weak. Luckily, it is not. The defending World Champ who hit the track, Janeth Jepkosgei, was granted a spot in the semi-final and qualified through to the final on time. Jepkosgei was second at the Olympics last year. World leader Caster Semenya of South Africa, only 18 years old, will be a more than suitable replacement for Olympic Champ Pamela Jelimo, who did not finish her semi-final race. Semenya is having a similar year to Jelimo’s year last year, running 1:56.72 to explode onto the radar. Russian Mariya Savinova has also had a breakout year by running 1:57.90 outdoors and 1:58.10 indoors. She had never broken 2 minutes before this year.

Europe has a noticeably strong presence in this final. Yuliya Krevsun (Ukraine) was 7th at last years Olympics and has run 1:57 in the previous 2 years. The UK is the only country with 2 representatives in the final with Jennifer Meadows and Marilyn Okoro running well in the semi-final round. Perhaps the most experienced runner in the race is Mayte Martinez who has been in numerous international finals and was 3rd in Osaka.

Likely Medalists: Much of this field will be in their first final of a major international championship, so there are a lot of wild cards. Semenya and Savinova seem to be slight favorites for medals based on how they have run this season and in the rounds of this meet. Jepkosgei has run 1:56 the past three years and scored a medal the past 2, but has seemed off her game this year. She is a major threat, however.

1. Semenya 2. Savinova 3. Jepkosgei

Preliminary Action to Watch For

The first 5 events (100m, LJ, Shot, HJ, 400m) of the Decathlon get underway, bringing us halfway to crowning the “World’s Greatest Athlete”. In the 200 Allyson Felix looks steps on the track for the first time to begin her quest to win America an individual sprinting gold. The Men’s 200 will also narrow the field down to 8 for the following day’s final. With Tyson Gay not running, Usain Bolt is the hands down favorite, but that leaves 2 medals up for grabs. The Women’s 5K and Men’s 400 semi-finals will also determine the fields for later in the week. In the field, Olympic Champ Stephanie Brown Trafton will hopefully sail through to the final round of the Women’s Discus.