Track and Field Blogs - Justin Kopunek

12th IAAF World Championship in Athletics – Berlin, Germany 2009

Preview of Day 6 – 20 August 2009

On Day 6, some of the most anticipated hurdle finals with the Women’s 400H and Men’s 110H. Can the defending Olympic Champs hold off the fast charging Americans? The day’s biggest story will probably be Usain Bolt’s likely win and possible new world record in the 200m dash. One of the top American headlines may be made by decathlete Trey Hardee who will look to get redemption from his DNF at the Olympics last year. With 2 American women in the High Jump final, a surprise medal in that event may also be in the cards on Day 6.

Event: Women’s 400m Hurdles 2:15 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Jana Rawlinson (Australia) 2008 Olympic Champion Melaine Walker (Jamaica) 2009 World Leader: Lashinda Demus (USA) 52.63

American Contingent: Lashinda Demus, Sheena Tosta, Tiffany Ross-Williams

Top International Contenders: Melaine Walker, Angela Morosanu (Romania), Josanne Lucas (Trinidad and Tobago), Anastasiya Rabchenvuk (Ukraine), Anna Jesien (Poland), Natalya Antyukh (Russia)

Outlook: It has always got to be scary for the competition when the World/Olympic Champion from the previous year, who seems to be having a lackluster season, starts setting season bests in the rounds. All season, the 400m Hurdles was ruled by Lashinda Demus and the 2008 Olympic Champion Melaine Walker was getting beat at almost every European meet. Walker has been beat this season by a half a dozen different women this season, including all three American women competing in Berlin. In the semi-final round at the World Champs, however, she looked like an Olympic Champion running 53.26. That time is #2 in the world this year. Demus has the #1 at 52.63, which is the fourth fastest all time. If Demus loses in the final, it will be her first loss of the season.

Also running well in the semi-finals, Josanne Lucas ran a national record of 53.98 for Trinidad and Tobago behind Walker. Third in that heat, just making it to the finals on time was Romania’s Angela Morosanu. Morosanu has had a good season so far, she came into the meet as the world #2 at 53.95. 2008 Olympic silver medalist for the US, Sheena Tosta faded after going out very aggressively in her semi-final and she did not advance. America will have a second representative in the final, however, as Tiffany Ross-Williams made her 3rd consecutive global championship final. She will look to improve upon her 7th and 8th place finishes from Osaka and Beijing. Osaka bronze medalist Anna Jesien of Poland will look to get back on the podium after falling to 5th last year and Natalya Antyukh of Russia makes her first World Final in the 400m H after a successful career in the 400m that includes an Olympic bronze. This is her first year running the hurdles seriously.

Likely Medalists: If Demus is in the shape she was in late July, I do not see Walker beating her, but she has had a long season racing at a high level and she may be a little tired. If she goes out too hard and fades in the home stretch, you can be sure Walker will blow right by her.

1. Demus 2. Walker 3. Morosanu

Event: Women’s High Jump 2:10 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Blanka Vlasic (Estonia) 2008 Olympic Champion Tia Hellebaut (Belgium) 2009 World Leader: Ariane Friedrich (Germany) 2.06m

American Contingent: Chaunte Howard, Amy Acuff, Sharon Day

Top International Contenders: Blanka Vlasic, Ariane Friedrich, Ruth Beitia (Spain), Anna Chicherova (Russia), Antonietta Di Martino (Italy)

Outlook: Last year, Blanka Vlasic was one of the most dominant athletes in the sport. The Croatian was unbeaten all season until the 2 most important meets of the season. She got silver at the Olympics to Tia Hellebaut of Belgium and lost her share of the Golden League Jackpot by losing to German Ariane Friedrich in Brussels. Both losses came as heartbreaking ties that were broken on the number of misses. This year, Vlasic comes in to worlds as a co-favorite with Friedrich. Hellebaut will not be competing as she retired last year. Vlasic and Friedrich have met twice this season and split the outcome, each winning one. Friedrich has the world leading jump and will have the home nation advantage, while Vlasic has jumped over 2 meters more consistently.

After the top 2, there is a drop off in season bests, but three other women have jumped over 2 meters this season. Ruth Beitia of Spain, Anna Chicherova of Russia, Antonietta Di Martino of Italy. All three will be able to capitalize if the top 2 seeds do not perform their best. Di Martino has already done this, defeating Vlasic on an off day in Rome. Two Americans have made the finals, Chaunte Howard and Amy Acuff. Howard has a season best of 1.98 meters and was 6th at the Olympics last year. If she can jump near her personal best of 2.01m then she may get back on the podium (she was 2nd in 2005).

Likely Medalists: The German crowd has played a huge part in how well the German athletes have been doing in the field. For Vlasic, this is her chance to heal the wounds of Beijing. It will certainly be a battle. It could go either way depending on the day.

1. Vlasic 2. Friedrich 3. Beitia

Event: Men’s 200m Dash 3:35 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Tyson Gay (USA) 2008 Olympic Champion Usain Bolt (Jamaica) 2009 World Leader: Tyson Gay (USA) 19.58

American Contingent: Shawn Crawford, Charles Clark, Wallace Spearmon

Top International Contenders: Usain Bolt, Alonso Edward (Panama), Steve Mullings (Jamaica), Ramil Guliyev (Azerbaijan), David Alerte (France)

Outlook: With Tyson Gay sitting out to rest his groin for the 4x100, this final will be squarely focused on how fast can Usain Bolt run. He smashed his own World Record in the 100m, so his 19.30 200m World Record is certainly in jeopardy. I would say that the pressure on him, unlike almost every other athlete at the meet, will not be if you will win, but if he can live up to his previous performance. For the Americans, with the third fastest man at 200m ever on the sidelines, the medal hopes will be left on the shoulders of Olympic Gold Medalist Shawn Crawford and sub-20 performer this year Wallace Spearmon. The pair have both shown they know what it takes to medal at a major international champion, but they will not have an easy road to silver and bronze. Crawford seems to only come up big in Olympic years, so hopefully this year will be an exception. As for Spearmon, he went 19.98 back in June, but has struggled to return to that form this season.

Three men look like they have the ability to keep the Americans out of the medals. Alonso Edward of Panama leads this group. Just 20 years old this month, Edward ran 20.00 in late July. Jamaican Steve Mullings was in that race and was right behind in 20.01. A great race from him could very well give Jamaica 2 medals in event. Ramil Guliyev of Azerbaijan is right in their ballpark with a 20.04 season best. He is one of the best hopes for his country to win a medal.

Likely Medalists: A false start, a fall, or a lane violation seem to be the only logical reasons that Bolt will not win.

1. Bolt 2. Spearmon 3. Edward

Event: Men’s 110m Hurdles 2:55 PM EST

Defending World Champion: Liu Xiang (China) 2008 Olympic Champion: Dayron Robles (Cuba) 2009 World Leader: Dayron Robles (Cuba) 13.04

American Contingent: David Payne, Terrence Trammell, Aries Merritt

Top International Contenders: Dayron Robles, Ryan Brathwaite (Barbados), Dwight Thomas (Jamaica),

Outlook: Anytime a World Record holder comes into the World Champs with a World leading time and an extensive winning streak, it is expected that they will breeze through the early rounds. This was not the case for Cuba’s Dayron Robles. The Olympic Champion took the third and final auto spot in his heat of the opening round of the 110m Hurdles and he had the slowest time of anybody who qualified for the next round. He had a great European season, so his fitness should no be in doubt, but the hurdles can be very unpredictable. Robles is still the class of the field and if he does not win it will be one of the meet’s bigger surprises. After Robles, the world list is filled with Americans at the top as they occupy spots 2-6 and 8-12. Of course, only 3 of those men are allowed to compete at the World Champs and they had also had a rough time in the first round. Aries Merritt did not qualify on and neither Terrence Trammell, nor David Payne won their heats. As the next fastest men in the race after Robles at 13.12 for the season, the latter two have both have won medals at the World Champs and Olympic Games. They are experienced and will be dangerous if they make the final. The only other athlete under 13.30 this year in the race is Ryan Brathwaite of Barbados. He has run 13.23 and looked great in the heats. Dwight Thomas (Jamaica) is right on the cusp with a 13.30 clocking. Also, China has 2 hurdlers, Wei Ji and Dongpeng Shi, that have looked much better in Berlin than their season best’s would suggest.

Likely Medalists: As long as you make it to the final, it does not matter who beat you in the rounds. Robles and the Americans have proven they can perform in a high pressure hurdle final. Edit: With Robles hurting himself and turining in a DNF in the semi-final, the race is the American's to lose. Brathwaite has been looking great, running a National Record 13.18 in the rounds.

1. Trammell 2. Brathwaite 3. Payne

Event: Men’s Decathlon 3:15 PM EST (1,500m)

Defending World Champion: Roman Sebrle (Czech Republic) 2008 Olympic Champion: Bryan Clay (USA) 2009 World Leader: Leonel Suarez (Cuba) 8654

American Contingent: Trey Hardee, Ashton Eaton, Jake Arnold

Top International Contenders: Leonel Suarez, Andrei Krauchanka (Belarus), Aleksandr Pogorelov (Russia), Roman Sebrle, Yordanis Garcia (Cuba), Oleksiy Kasyanov (Ukraine)

Outlook: When Bryan Clay did not start the Decathlon in Eugene back in June, this event got blown wide open. The reigning world champion, Roman Sebrle has not been able to get back to that champion shape. Last year the Czech was 6th in Beijing and this year his season best has only improved a little from last year. Cuba’s Leonel Suarez took bronze at last year’s Olympics and is the world leader which makes him a slight favorite, despite having an up and down first day, but he usually has a strong finish. Cuba has a strong team overall, as Yordanis Garcia and Yunior Diaz are both capable of big things in Berlin. Belarusian Andrei Krauchanka is not having the year he had last year when he scored Olympic Gold and his first day was not spectacular, but an Olympic medalist from the previous year never be counted out. Just outside the medals last year, Aleksandr Pogorelov of Russia will certainly have motivation to get on the medal stand this time around. His best Dec this year is about on par with last and so far in Berlin he is hitting season and personal bests in most events.

Trey Hardee is America’s top medal contender with Clay not in Berlin. He did not finish in Beijing last year, but has had a great season and has already won the 100m, Long Jump and set a PB in the Shot Put which places him at the top of the heap going into the second day. Both Hardee and fellow American Ashton Eaton are some of the faster decathletes in the world, so getting solid marks in the throwing event is imperative to keeping them in the lead pack. Ukrainian Oleksiy Kasyanov is another man who will be able to improve upon his Beijing performance where he finished 7th. He has already set multiple personal bests and has a great shot at a medal.

Likely Medalists: Suarez has such a strong 1,500m and javelin, he could blow by people after 8 events. As long as he stays healthy and composed, I think Hardee’s first day performance is good enough to lock up a medal, can he make it gold is the question. Pogorelov and Kasyanov seem to be the best candidates for a medal along with the two mentioned above.

1. Hardee 2. Suarez 3. Pogorelov

Preliminary Action to Watch For

In the Morning session Brad Walker begins his quest to defend his Men's Pole Vault World Title. The Men's 800 also starts as Abubaker Kaki of Sudan, who lead the world yet missed the finals last year, will hope to make it safely into the semi-finals. He leads the world this year as well. The last Qualifier of the morning is the Women's Hammer Throw. In the afternoon session, former World and Olympic Champ Dwight Phillips will take the runway for the first time in Berlin in the Men's Long Jump Qualification round. Also, the Men's 5,000, the last individual running event to have its opening round, brings Jerry Schumacher's trio onto the track, as well as the defending world champ Bernard Lagat as well as Kenenisa Bekele fresh off his 10,000m victory. Semis in the Men's 110 Hurdles and Women's 200m Dash will decide the fields of eight for those event. The final for the former will be held less than 3 hours later.