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NCAA Regional Preview #2: Women's Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast

Justin Kopunek | Profile
November 8, 2009


Women's Northeast Regional – 2009 Ranked Teams: Syracuse #10, Providence #21

2008 Automatic Qualifying Teams: Providence, Syracuse 2008 At-Large Teams: Boston College, Stony Brook 2008 Individual Champion: Danette Doetzel, Providence

Team Outlook in 2009: The Providence women’s team made their first trip to nationals in 1989 and they have not been absent at the championship since. That 20 year streak does not look like it will be broken this year, but they will not be going in to the meet as top dogs. Syracuse has been running great all season and is the favorite in the Northeast. They recently beat Providence head-to-head at the Big East Championships where the Orange had 4 girls in before the second Friar. Going in as the top ranked team is new this year, last year the Syracuse women surprised everyone at regionals to get the second auto-spot and earn the program’s first trip to NCAAs. It was the second year in a row the NE women’s race had such a surprise and both times it allowed for the region to get more that two teams to Terre Haute. It seems this year the only way a third team is making it out of this region is for the same to happen again. Usually strong in the Northeast, Stony Brook and Boston College have not looked as strong as they have in the past. Stony Brook had no seniors run at regionals last year, so they potentially could be a better team than their regular season has shown, but they will have to take a top two spot to get their 3rd consecutive trip to nationals. The Ivy League teams have been strong this year, particularly Harvard and Columbia, but they also have not produced any big wins in the regular season that would give them points for an at-large bid. As it looks, top 2 is a necessity for every team other than Syracuse and Providence.

Individuals To Expect Up Front: The top 5 from last year’s race have graduated, leaving this race wide opened. The top returner is Krystal Douglass of Providence, but she does not seem to be in the same form as she was just 47th at the Big East Champs. Freshman Shelby Greany and sophomore Hannah Davidson have been leading the Friars this season. Anyone in their top 5 has a shot at being in the top 15, Providence had 5 in the top 13 last year. The same goes for Syracuse’s scorers chances of being up front this year. They are led by Kathleen Hursey with Maegen Krifchin, Cathrine Desarle, and Rebekah McKay not far behind. The Ivy League has a strong contingent of girls that may monopolize the individual bids. Claire Richardson (Harvard), Ariel Wright (Brown), Jackie Drouin (Columbia) and Stephanie Pancoast (Cornell) each led their team at Heps by finishing in a row behind Princeton’s perfect-15 scoring top 5. Looking to break up that Ivy block will be Boston College’s Jillian King who recently finished 11th in a strong ACC Championship. Her sister and teammate Caroline King should not be counted out either. Another pair of sisters, Holly and Lucy Van Dalen of Stony Brook are two of the top returners from last year and teammate Laure Huet has been running well this year, as well. They went 2-3-4 at the America East Champs, with Maine’s Corey Conner taking the individual title. Iona’s Anna Jorgensen is also coming of an individual conference win at the MAAC Champs. Both Conner and Jorgensen could be factors in the individual race up front.

What you may expect to see…

1. Syracuse 2. Providence 3. Harvard 4. Stony Brook 5. Columbia 6. Cornell

1. Hursey (Syracuse) 2. Greany (Providence) 3. J. King (BC) 4. Krifchin (Syracuse) 5. Desarle (Syracuse) 6. Davidson (Providence) 7. Richardson (Harvard) 8. McKay (Syracuse) 9. Wright (Brown) 10. Twohig (Providence) 11. Conner (Maine) 12. H. Van Dalen (Stony Brook)


Women's Mid-Atlantic Regional – 2009 Ranked Teams: Villanova #2, Princeton #4, West Virginia #7, Penn State #12, Georgetown #15

2008 Automatic Qualifying Teams: Princeton, West Virginia 2008 At-Large Teams: Villanova, Georgetown 2008 Individual Champion: Frances Koons, Villanova

Team Outlook in 2009: This is the deepest women’s region, by far. They take up 1/3rd of the top 15 ranked teams in the NCAA. This will be a great race between 5 great teams, but the fact remains that with the way these women have run in the regular season, all 5 should be getting in easily, no matter where in the top 5 they fall. Villanova came out of the gate swinging this year, trouncing a highly ranked Oregon team at their home meet. Most recently they handily won an extremely competitive Big East Championships with a meager 30 points. 46 points back was a very good West Virginia team, with Georgetown in 4th. We know how these 3 teams match up against each other, but it will be interesting to see where exactly the other 2 nationally ranked teams fit in. Princeton was perfect at their conference meet going 1-5 and Penn State came up huge to win a close Big Ten Conference title. Penn State was one of the better teams left out of NCAAs last year due to a deficiency in at-large points. By winning the Big Ten meet, they potentially picked up 4 points by beating Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan, and Michigan State, who are all ranked in the top 2 in their regions. There is a bit of a drop off to the next best team, Bucknell. The only way another team could squeak in would be by beating one of these five teams, who would have to be having a very off day, at regionals.

Individuals To Expect Up Front: Princeton’s Liz Costello, who was 2nd last year, is the top returner and she is coming off her third consecutive Ivy League win in 16:55 (the fastest in Heps history). USA World Team member Bridget Franek of Penn State, however, may be the favorite. Franek just won the Big Ten crown over Angela Bizzarri (Illinois) and Megan Duwell (Minnesota), both of whom beat Costello at Pre-Nationals. The top 25 is going to be filled with runners from the top 5 teams, as it was last year. Villanova’s Sheila Reid won the Big East meet and could contend for the individual title. She was followed closely by Amanda Marino and the rest of the ‘Nova top 5 weren’t far behind (Bogdana Mimic, Brooke Simpson, Ali Smith). After Costello, Princeton has a strong group of Alex Banfich, Sarah Cumming, Ashley Higginson, and Reilly Kiernan. West Virginia is led by the trio of Clara Grandt, Marie Louise Asselin, and Keri Bland and Georgetown by Emily Infeld, Katie McCafferty, and Emily Jones. Bland was 14th at NCAAs last year, one spot ahead of Costello, but she was only 13th at Big East. After Franek, Penn State has two freshmen, Nicole Lord and Brooklyne Ridder, leading the heart of their team. Fronting the group of runners not from these 5 teams looks to be Megan Hogan of George Washington. Hogan was an individual NCAA qualifier last fall and is coming off a large win at the Atlantic 10 Champs.

What you may expect to see…

1. Villanova 2. Princeton 3. West Virginia 4. Penn State 5. Georgetown 6. Bucknell

1. Franek (Penn State) 2. Reid (Villanova) 3. Costello (Princeton) 4. Marino (Villanova) 5. Infeld (Georgetown) 6. Cummings (Princeton) 7. Mimic (Villanova) 8. Higginson (Princeton) 9. Grandt (WV) 10. Asselin (WV) 11. Lord (Penn State) 12. Simpson (Villanova)


Women's Southeast Regional – 2009 Ranked Teams: Duke #15, Virginia #19, N.C. State ORV, North Carolina ORV

2008 Automatic Qualifying Teams: Virginia, Kentucky 2008 At-Large Teams: None 2008 Individual Champion: Tasmin Fanning, Virginia Tech

Team Outlook in 2009: The top four ranked teams in this region are all in the Atlantic Coast Conference, so we have already seen how they stack up against each other over 6,000m and not much should change at regionals unless there are new additions, or people sit-out. The Duke women put together a nice conference race to cement themselves as the favorites in the Southeast. You can read more about the Blue Devils here. Virginia was not far behind at ACCs and their usual 5th girl did not run. If they have her back, the teams could be reversed at regionals. The next two teams at ACCs were N.C. State and North Carolina. Both teams are right on the cusp of making it in at-large. A lot of their fortune, if they place 3rd and 4th at regionals, will be in the hands of what teams qualify automatically in other regions. UNC’s top runner, All American Lauren Holesh, was their 4th across the line at the conference meet. Had she run how she normally does, the Tar Heels would have been right with N.C. State in team scoring. They will need her to be racing at top form if they want to grab the 3rd spot, which would be important considering how close to that 31st spot both these teams are. William & Mary and James Madison are the next best teams on paper, but they will need to run out of their shoes to grab get past the top four teams.

Individuals To Expect Up Front: The top returner from 2008 is Janet Jesang of Western Kentucky who was 3rd in the Southeast last year and 13th at Nationals. She is running well this year, defending her Sun Belt Conference title and placing 5th at Pre-Nationals. Holesh should be a contender up front if she rebounds from her sub-par ACC performance. She will have to deal with new addition to the Southeast Region Catherine White, who transferred to Virginia from Arkansas this year. White was second only to FSU’s Susan Kuijken (who runs in the South Region) at the ACC Champs. Her teammate Morgane Gay has also been running quite well this season, as has Holesh’s teammate Ashley Verplank. Duke is lead by the very good pair of Carly Seymour and Juliet Bottorff and N.C. State is headed by Emily Pritt. All three were in the top 10 at ACCs, as was Kim Ruck of Clemson. Louisville’s Tarah McKay, who was 5th last year at regionals, looks primed to take an individual spot at NCAAs again this season. The same can be said of Charlotte’s Amanda Goetschius, who was 8th last year. Emily Anderson of William & Mary is a dark horse. She did not compete in cross country regionals last fall, but she is a 3 time All American on the track at 5,000m and 1,500m. Nicol Traynor of Richmond qualified for the NCAA Outdoor Championships at 5,000m last fall, but has missed most of the season. She returned for her conference meet, but it will be a unknown if she can return to full fitness by regionals. Kentucky is lead by freshman Chelsea Oswald who was 14th in?the strong SEC Champs.

What you may expect to see…

1. Virginia 2. Duke 3. North Carolina 4. N.C. State 5. William & Mary 6. James Madison

1. Jesang (W. Kentucky) 2. White (Virginia) 3. Holesh (UNC) 4. Gay (Virginia) 5. Seymour (Duke) 6. Anderson (William & Mary) 7. McKay (Louisville) 8. Pritt (N.C. State) 9. Goetschius (Charlotte) 10. Verplank (UNC) 11. Ruck (Clemson) 12. Bottorff (Duke)



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#15
Peter Gilmore   November 13 at 1:40pm
"BU girl" Walkonen is injured and not racing.

Van Dalen couldn't even win her conference meet - how is she supposed to win the regional meet? :)
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#14
Jw   November 12 at 10:55am
What about the bu girl. ?
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#13
GW   November 12 at 10:35am
Ah, that makes sense then. I've been known to do that myself from time to time when trying to be as impartial as possible. Thanks for the preview. On the whole I think you did a very good job... it's going to be a great race!
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#12
Justin Kopunek   November 12 at 10:27am
I agree with you GW, that Hogan can deffinatley run with those girls. I was just trying to cancel out an biases I have when doing these and I have an A10 bias that i was trying to counter act.
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#11
GW   November 12 at 9:35am
It really is a shame that Penn State had 8" of snow and lost most of its competition for the National Invite this year... otherwise you would have had a chance to see that Megan Hogan of GW can run with any of the girls in the Mid-Atlantic. She was a close 5th at Paul Short, and destroyed a 2008 individual qualifier by nearly a minute in a mud-covered Atlantic 10 Conference Meet. Don't be surprised to see her in the top-5 of the region.
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#10
Bet Ya   November 10 at 9:50pm
Holly van Dalen to win northeast, leading stony brook to 2nd
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#9
Justin Kopunek   November 10 at 9:34am
Ok, thankyou both for pointing that out, It was an oversight. Doesnt really change anything, though.
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#8
Distance   November 10 at 8:57am
Big East was 6k

"We know how these 3 teams match up against each other, but it will be interesting to see if adding 1,000m closes, or opens any gaps and where exactly the other 2 nationally ranked teams fit in."
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#7
Anonymous Coward   November 9 at 11:56pm
ACC results say the girls ran a 6k, so we know how they stack up against each other over 6,000m already
"The top four ranked teams in this region are all in the Atlantic Coast Conference, so we have already seen how they stack up against each other over 5,000m and not much should change with the extra 1k."
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#6
Kyle Butler   November 9 at 8:34pm
Ashley is coming off of a hamstring injury and is redshirting this season. Expect Duke to sit one of their 3-4 girls as they try to decide who their 5-6-7 girls will be for nationals.
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#5
Quinn   November 9 at 7:44pm
Where is Ashley Brasovan from Duke? Is she resting, injured? If she runs, Duke will smoke Virginia
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#4
Kyle Butler   November 9 at 7:11pm
Duke is resting some of its girls so they could get beat if Virginia goes all out. They dont need to run too hard seeing as their spot at Nationals is almost a lock.
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#3
Wisconsin (All Wet)   November 9 at 5:45pm
I'm glad you based your thinking on more than just the Big East meet a week ago. The weather certainly messed up the most logical predictions, but it seems you have taken that into account. A pretty "fair and balanced" account of the season, I think!
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#2
Xc   November 9 at 4:14pm
duke will finish ahead of virginia.
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#1
Gate Xc?   November 9 at 12:51pm
I think you overlooked Elise Deroo from Colgate university. She finished 15th at the Paul Short Invitational, and won the Patriot League Championship by 53 seconds. One of the girls she beat was Amy Watson, who was an NCAA individual qualifier last year. She has to be in the running to get an at-large bid.
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