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NCAA Regional Preview #6: Women's South Central, Mountain, and West

Justin Kopunek | Profile
November 12, 2009


Women's South Central Regional – 2009 Ranked Teams: SMU #25, Arkansas #28, Baylor Others Receiving Votes

2008 Automatic Qualifying Teams: Arkansas, Baylor 2008 At-Large Teams: Rice, SMU 2008 Individual Champion: Nicole Mericle, Rice

Team Outlook in 2009: Similarly to the Men’s South Central Region, the women’s is rather weak this year. The top ranked team in the region is SMU. They are new to their perch atop the South Central and did not move up there until last week when they won the Conference USA title with an impressive 28 points. They were solid all season, placing fifth at the Chili Pepper Festival and eighth at Notre Dame. Arkansas beat SMU head-to-head at Chili Pepper, placing third. The Lady Razorbacks were third again at the SEC Championships. The Baylor women were considered the best team in the region for most of the year and on paper they are. They were ranked as high as 12th nationally, but fell throughout the season landing outside the top-30. Struggling with sickness at Pre-Nats, they did not rebound at Big 12s where they finished a disappointing seventh. They did show promise early in the season at the Bill Dillinger Invite when they placed behind only NCAA#2 Villanova and NCAA#5 Oregon. If they can get all their girls healthy, they will certainly be a top-2 team in the region. The meet is on their home course, which may play into their hands. Arkansas and SMU will be standing in the Bears way. It should be a good race for those 2 auto-spots as it does not look likely that a third team will qualify out of this region. Well behind Baylor at Big 12s was Texas and Texas A&M, while Rice was 54 points behind SMU at the Conference USA meet, so these the top three teams are pretty well cemented in those spots.

Individuals To Expect Up Front: Last year’s runner-up, All-American steepler Erin Bedell has been running well all season. In fact, she is one of the few on Baylor’s team that can be said about. She was 8th in a competitive Big 12 Champs. Nicole Jones was 25th in that race and was 5th in the region for Baylor last year with Danielle Bradley right behind her in 6th. Texas A&M’s Christina Munoz is also one of the top returners after she was 3rd last year, but she was back in 34th at Big 12s and Betzy Jimenez and Mia Behm of Texas were well ahead of her. At the SEC meet, Arkansas junior Miranda Walker finished 10th with underclassmen teammates Alyssa Allison and Kristen Gillespie in tow at 15th and 16th. At Conference USA, SMU was led by the trio of Silje Fjortoft, Sara Sjokvist, and Veronika Blom who came in 2-3-4. Rice freshmen Heather Olson was 10 seconds back in 8th, placing just ahead of SMU’s 4 and 5 runners. One of the top individual runners in the region is Anne Ronoh of Texas A&M Corpus Christi. She recently won the Southland Conference over Kayla Pratt of UTSA. Pratt’s teammate Dana Mecke beat Ronoh at the Chili Pepper Festival where she placed tenth. Houston’s Stephanie Aldea qualified individually for NCAAs last year as a freshman and will look to do the same in her sophomore year.

What you may expect to see…

1. Arkansas 2. Baylor 3. SMU 4. Texas 5. Texas A&M 6. Rice

1. Bedell (Baylor) 2. Jimenez (Texas) 3. Walker (Arkansas) 4. Jones (Baylor) 5. Fjortoft (SMU) 6. Behm (Texas) 7. Allison (Arkansas) 8. Ronoh (TAMCC) 9. Gillespie (Arkansas) 10. Sjokvist (SMU) 11. Mecke (UTSA) 12. Blom (SMU)


Women's Mountain Regional – 2009 Ranked Teams: Colorado #6, Texas Tech #8, New Mexico #20, BYU #22, NAU & UTEP Others Receiving Votes

2008 Automatic Qualifying Teams: Texas Tech, New Mexico 2008 At-Large Teams: NAU 2008 Individual Champion: Sally Kipyego, Texas Tech

Team Outlook in 2009: This region has had some interesting rankings all year. Texas Tech seems to have been under-ranked all season. When Colorado surprised many by winning their race at Pre-Nationals, they instantly flew up the rankings, ahead of Texas Tech. The Red Raiders came back to beat Colorado at Big 12s. They moved passed the Buffalos in the regional rankings, but not in the national rankings. Strange, but it may be how things play out in the next few weeks. Texas Tech has a tight pack that may benefit them at meets the size of Big 12s, or regionals. Colorado, on the other hand, has a guaranteed 1 point from their top runner. At big meets like Pre-Nats and NCAAs, having a 1 in the first spot is basically like running a team that only has to score four runners. Either way, both Colorado and Texas Tech are great teams that will do well in Terre Haute. Like their male counterparts, the New Mexico and BYU women have traded places in the rankings all season, as well. Most recently the Lobos got the upper hand by winning the Mountain West Conference Championship over the Cougars. Both teams have run well during the regular season, which should give them a good amount of at-large points. New Mexico has wins against Florida State, SMU, and Providence, while BYU has wins against Michigan, SMU, and Arkansas. NAU won the Big Sky Conference by 36 points and UTEP was 2nd in Conference USA. Both are high-quality teams, but they will need to get in the top 4 to get pushed into the top 31 that make NCAAs.

Individuals To Expect Up Front: One of the best female distance runners in NCAA history dominated this region for years and now that she has finally graduated, she is replaced by the BEST female distance runner in NCAA history. The only way Colorado’s Jenny Barringer will not win this race is if she does not start, does not finish, or she allows someone (like a teammate) to beat her so she can save energy for NCAAs. Chances are, none of those scenarios will happen. Buffalo Allie McLaughlin is having a great freshman season. She was 10th at Pre-Nats and 2nd to Barringer at Big 12s. As the conference runner-up she beat Texas Tech’s superb duo of Lillian Badaru and Purity Biwott. Last year, Badaru was second at regionals and 18th at NCAAs. At the conference meet, Texas Tech’s 3-4 Gladys Kipsang and Caroline Karunde were ahead of Colorado’s #3 Laura Thweatt and the Red Raider’s #5 Winrose Karunde outran Buffalo’s #4 Laura Tremblay. At the Mountain West Conference Champs, BYU’s Cecily Lemmon, who was NCAA 10,000m runner-up last spring, continued a great season by taking the individual crown. After Lemmon, New Mexico had 3 runners across the line; Ruth Senior, Nicky Archer, and Lacey Oeding. The only other team to have finishers in the top 10 was Colorado State with Ellie Rastall (5th) and Kristen Hemphill (9th). NAU’s Veronica Pohl defended her Big Sky title last week, beating teammate Kortnee Burton and Montana’s Katrina Drennen by over 20 seconds. UTEP freshman Risper Kimaiyo was also an individual conference champ of Conference USA. The#2 for UTEP was Gladys Chumba in fifth place and #3 Kathya Garcia in seventh. Kimaiyo ran very fast at Pre-Nats getting fourth and will be a top runner in Terre Haute. Summit League Conference Champ Sharla Manuele of Southern Utah finished 19 seconds ahead of runner-up and teammate Diane Medina. Manuele will be one of the main contenders for an individual spot.

What you may expect to see…

1. Texas Tech 2. Colorado 3. New Mexico 4. BYU 5. NAU 6. UTEP

1. Barringer (Colorado) 2. Kimaiyo (UTEP) 3. McLaughlin (Colorado) 4. Badaru (Texas Tech) 5. Lemmon (BYU) 6. Biwott (Texas Tech) 7. Pohl (NAU) 8. Kipsang (Texas Tech) 9. C. Karunde (Texas Tech) 10. Thweatt (Colorado) 11. Tremblay (Colorado) 12. Senior (New Mexico)


Women's West Regional – 2009 Ranked Teams: Washington #1, Oregon #5, Stanford #14, Arizona State #16, Arizona #24, Cal #27

2008 Automatic Qualifying Teams: Washington, Oregon 2008 At-Large Teams: Stanford, Arizona State 2008 Individual Champion: Alex Kosinski, Oregon

Team Outlook in 2009: The Pac-10 completely dominates the Women’s West Region, especially this year. Washington is obviously the defending NCAA Champs and they return the majority of that team. Because of this, they are the favorites in every race they run until somebody finally beats them. There is a good chance that the Huskies will rest some varsity girls this weekend, as they did last year. Oregon is the two-time defending NCAA runner-up and is great up front. The Ducks tend to pick up steam as the season goes on. Last year they closed the gap on Washington after getting blown-out at Pac-10s. This year, Oregon was much closer at conference, only 7 points back. They are one of the few teams in the country that could be that close to the Huskies. On the upside, the Ducks have had 3 different girls lead the team this year and each time 2 of their top 3 run well, with the third being off their best. If Oregon’s top-3 can all get on the same page in the same race, this is a dangerous team. These two squads should pick up the two auto-spots. Behind these two at Pac-10s were Arizona State and Stanford, separated by 1 point. Stanford, however, was missing two of their top girls from the season; Alex Dunne and Kathy Kroeger. Dunne was 17th at Pre-Nats and Kroeger led the team at the first meet. Dunne dropped out of the conference meet towards the end and Kroeger reportedly had a stress reaction. If both, or either are back, this team should be the obvious pick for third in the region with the very good ASU team in fourth. In 5th and 6th at Pac-10s were Cal and Arizona with only 2 points separating them. These teams have good shots of making it to Terre Haute with an At-Large bid and can close the gap on Arizona State. Actually, at Pre-Nats Arizona’s entire top 5 ran faster that ASU’s third runner and are capable of doing that again. The best non-Pac-10 school in the region seems to be UC Santa Barbara, who recently beat UC Davis for the Big West Conference title. They really do not have the regular season credentials to get them an At-Large bid to Terre Haute.

Individuals To Expect Up Front: Oregon’s Alex Kosinski and Nicole Blood went 1-2 last year. Blood is fresh off a Pac-10 win, is a 15:38 5ker, and was top-10 at the last two NCAA meets. Kosinski ran well at the opener, but has been off her best since. Do not count her out, however, she was 8th at NCAAs last fall and can beat any girl in this field when she is on. In addition to these two, the Ducks have freshman Jordan Hasay who was third at both Pac-10s and Pre-Nats. In their 4th spot is Claire Michel, who was a finalist in the NCAA steeplechase last year. Obviously anyone of Washington’s varsity runners is a contender to win this race. As freshmen last fall, Christine Babcock and Kendra Schaaf placed 7th and 12th at NCAAs, respectively. This season, Schaaf was 2nd and Babcock was 5th at both Pre-Nats and Pac-10s. Mel Lawrence, who was third in the steeple at NCAAs last fall, was 4th at Pac 10s last week. Katie Follett is the most experienced Husky and she was a very strong 4th at Pre-Nationals this year. As mentioned above, Stanford’s Dunne was a DNF at the conference meet, but Alex Gits and Stephanie Marcy are solid front-runners that run a tight pack. Gits did not run last fall, but was Stanford’s fourth runner when they won the NCAA team title in 2007. Many other Pac-10 teams are lead by very strong runners that will be mixing it up front this weekend; Deborah Maier (Cal), Kari Hardt (ASU), Shannon Murakami (UCLA), and Maggie Callahan (Arizona). Santa Clara senior Stephanie Wilson just won the West Coast Conference by 39 seconds over the field. Sarah Sumpter of UC Davis also won her conference meet in a close race. She outran Kayleigh Tyerman of Cal Poly and Lilyana Morejon of UC Northridge at the Big West Championships as only two seconds separated the trio.

What you may expect to see…

1. Washington 2. Oregon 3. Stanford 4. Arizona State 5. Arizona 6. Cal

1. Blood (Oregon) 2. Schaaf (Washington) 3. Hasay (Oregon) 4. Lawrence (Washington) 5. Babcock (Washington) 6. Kosinski (Oregon) 7. Maier (Cal) 8. Hardt (Arizona St) 9. Follett (Washington) 10. Gits (Stanford) 11. Marcy (Stanford) 12. Callahan (Arizona)



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#16
Hasay   November 14 at 9:31pm
Me ftw.
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#15
Kaiber Takamiya   November 14 at 7:39pm
and what do you know? my predictions are right... hehehe
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#14
Anonymous Coward   November 14 at 2:31pm
Yeah... Oregon women stronger than UW at this point... Not so much.
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#13
Kaiber Takamiya   November 13 at 11:51pm
my prediction for Mountain
1. Jenny B
2. Cecily Lemmon
3. Allie McLaughlin
: )
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#12
Justin Kopunek   November 13 at 9:41pm
I agree with you Mike, she could very well win the race tommorow. I just want to let people know that these are not so much my predictions as more where people stand so far based on their performances. It is basically a merging of conference meet, Pre-Nat and Major Invite results. Some special circumstances were considered and ot helped when people who ran well last year at regionals and nationals. So really it is just a look at where people/teams are at heading into the races. Anything could happen. Did anyone think Oregon would go 1-2 last year at regionals after UW want 1-6 at Pac 10s? Did anyone think Andrew Ledwith would place 3rd at NCAA's after getting like 5th, or 6th at regionals?
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#11
Mike Mather   November 13 at 9:34pm
Alex Kosinski is picked for 6th place above. I'm thinking most of the Oregon girls kind of know where they're at right now. Alex, on the other hand, was way off at Pre-Nats, much better at PAC-10's but not yet 100%. If anyone is going to come out tomorrow and drill the Huskies, I think it will likely be Kosinski. I think she figured to be about 26 seconds off what she could have run in Long Beach (right about where Schaaf was). She'll sleep better next week knowing she can burn the Huskie front pack. If she does, it's the difference between another runner-up year and this squad's first XC national championship.
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#10
Prognosticator   November 13 at 9:18pm
I don't think either Wash or Ore girls are too concerned about this win. The focus is on top two team finish, doing as little as possible to get there. Anyone who may have a health or injury problem in tomorrows cold and wet 39/44 degree temps will likely sit it out. If they go hard this week, they won't have the fire they'll need next week. Very important issue.
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#9
The West   November 13 at 8:49pm
Katie Follett is a complete sweetie and I hate to vote against Washington, but I think Oregon is the stronger team at this point in the season.
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#8
Hiiiiii   November 13 at 8:28pm
kendra schaaf for the win!!!!
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#7
Texas Runner   November 13 at 7:51pm
I have a good feeling about Baylor. yes they've faced trials this year, but they are hands down the best team in their region.
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#6
Alex   November 13 at 7:33pm
What do you think the chances are that they might bench Hasay for this meet since she's a freshie without as much time under her legs. Might be worried she'll run too hard and hasn't fully adjusted to the program yet to run at full potential at regionals and nationals
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#5
Griak Results   November 13 at 5:54pm
the wild girl interview Nothum of UVU or something like that ran solid at Griak, right behind manule and rastall this year, she should be a contender for top 4 individuals if she is in this region, maybe she's in the west..
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#4
Seany   November 13 at 5:37pm
The Huskies should be way ahead of Oregon if everyone stays healthy both before and during the race. Katie Follett was sick for Pac-10, and both Kendra Schaaf and Kailey Campbell suffered injuries during that race but rallied to the finish line.
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#3
XC Fanatic   November 13 at 3:06pm
Kayleigh Tyerman is so pretty! The whole western region is loaded with cute runners!
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#2
Not So Fast   November 13 at 2:45pm
Blood is also a major talent. She has beaten Schaaf head to head in cross like 3 out of 4 times I think. On that, Bab, Hasay, Konsinski, Lawrence...they are all ridiculous talents. At their level of closeness it comes down to who is feeling best on a given day and who is peaking when.
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#1
James Barley   November 13 at 2:35pm
Schaff should win the West Regional if she runs smart. She took it out too fast at PreNats. She needs to strategize a little better. She's a tremendous talent.
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