Women’s 3,000m - How will Genzebe Dibaba amaze us this time?

Final: Sunday, 1:45 pm PT

Habitual world record smasher and defending 3,000m champion Genzebe Dibaba will bring her mythical talents to Portland, and that’s great news for American fans hoping for a great show this Sunday. The 25-year-old Ethiopian is a human highlight reel of distance running wizardry, and as such, any race she runs now is a “drop everything” type moment. I would say just Bolt and Farah demand our immediate attention to a higher degree, but since they’re not here, Dibaba serves as the headlining act.

After a summer that included the breaking of a thought-to-be untouchable 1500m World record, several incredibly quick 5,000m (including the #4 all-time 14:15.41), and an emphatic 1500m World title punctuated with a 1:56 last 800m, Queen Dibaba has started off 2016 just as expected— historically fast.  

So far this season she’s dropped two And1 Mixtape-esque performances; Vol. 1 was a 4:13 mile that laid waste to a 25-year-old World record with nearly four seconds to spare, and then out of nowhere Vol. 2 surfaced in the form of a 8:22 3k some 48 hours later. Sure, that one wasn’t a World record, but it was the second-fastest all-time behind only her own 8:16, and more importantly, proved that Vol. 1 was just as easy as she made it look.

With the elimination of the prelim (the men will still run one however) and noting the enthusiasm Dibaba has for obliterating records, the World record watch should be on high alert in Portland. This wouldn’t be incredibly surprising considering Dibaba would need to just run a PR, and as noted she’s plenty fit enough to do it, but this setting ups the ante big time as championships tend to be the anti-time trial. No pacer dulls the WR theory a bit, but given that Dibaba has voiced her desire to run really fast in Rio, I wouldn’t be surprised if she uses this straight final to crush everyone from the gun. 

No matter if it’s a time trial or if she waits until the last 800 meters to unload a sub-2:00 door-slammer, Dibaba can and should win either way. Almaz Ayana proved last summer that Dibaba is not bullet proof, but Ayana is also the third fastest 5k runner in World history. Without her here, the path looks very clear to the top of the podium, with just one potential obstacle in her way. 

That obstacle is the greatest women’s 3k runner in history not named Genzebe Dibaba.

Meseret Defar is the only woman that could give Dibaba fits. She is, after all, a four-time winner of 3,000m indoor gold, a title she claimed at four consecutive championships from 2004 to 2010. After taking 2014 off to have a baby, and missing basically all of 2015 as well, the 32-year-old showed excellent fitness with her 8:30.83 3k in February. That’s nowhere close to what Dibaba did even coming off that 4:13, but Defar is one of the best female distance runners ever, so her return isn’t to be taken lightly.

Dibaba’s fellow Ethiopian is one of just three women on Earth that can say they’ve run faster over 5,000m than Genzebe, as Defar's 14:12 PR compliments her eight global gold medals nicely to make an intriguing opponent for our resident show-stopper.

The issue for Defar is that even at her best, she never reached the level that Dibaba is at now in the 3,000m. The difference in their PRs is a monstrous seven seconds, and let’s not pretend that Defar is still at her peak. The 8:30 was impressive, but she’s 32 now and can’t hope to combat Dibaba in either a tactical affair or a from-the-gun effort. Dibaba won’t leave it to chance in the last lap, and it’s nearly impossible to imagine A) Defar being able to run a World record at her age or B) Having the ability to run a 2:00-ish final 800m off a slow pace (as Dibaba can do.) A silver seems certain for Defar.

Gelete Burka is in position to make it an Ethiopian sweep of the podium. Her 8:33 season’s best is nearly 11 seconds clear of everyone else, and she’s an excellent indoor runner as proven by her 2008 1500 World title.

Shannon Rowbury appears to be on the outside looking in with regards to a top-3 finish, but don’t let her 8:47 indoor PR fool you. The US champ has run 8:29 outdoors, and that’s much closer to her true ability here than the previous number. A race that takes off halfway would really benefit Rowbury, as that 3:56 1500 speed makes her a threat to Defar and Burka.

VERDICT: 

Gold: Genzebe Dibaba- Easiest pick I’ve made in awhile

Silver: Meseret Defar- My God, what a career

Bronze: Gelete Burka- Too much experience to not land here    

Men’s 3,000m - Log Jam at the top

Prelims: Friday, 1:05pm PT

Final: Sunday, 1:10pm PT

While the women’s version has a shiny favorite well ahead of the rest, the men’s 3,000m is significantly foggier despite returning two medalists from the 2014 championships in Sopot. With seven men between 7:38 and 7:40, the race to gold is open to all of them.   

Even though he’s the defending champion and was a near Mo Farah assassin last summer, Kenya’s Caleb Ndiku enters Portland wounded after taking two losses in February. The 23-year-old was just fourth in his last contest more than a month ago, a crucial failed litmus test as countryman Augustine Choge and Ethiopia’s Yomif Kejelcha both beat him soundly there. They’ll both be in Portland.

Ndiku also is an entertaining conversationalist. Here's him talking about the beanie he wore at 2014 World Indoors:



 
Ndiku’s build up to his 2014 World title was much sharper than it has been this go around, so skepticism is needed, but it’s impossible to ignore his resume. Ndiku’s 3:49 mile/7:30 3k/12:59 5k makes him a prototypical 3k star, and a tactical race favors his closing speed.

Reigning bronze medalist Dejen Gebremeskel brings an undefeated season and a 7:38.03 World lead into Portland, although the Ethiopian doesn’t boast any impressive scalps that would suggest he’s in better form than the other contenders. The 26-year-old wasn’t completely dominant in the New Balance Grand Prix 3k on February 14th, which against a soft-ish field shows reason for concern that he’s not gold medal material. Gebremeskel has run 12:46 over 5k and owns a silver medal in that event from the 2012 Olympic Games, but he hasn’t run faster than 13:00.49 since. I would say the word for the Ethiopian here is “wildcard.”

Also bringing perfect seasons to the Oregon Convention Center will be Ryan Hill and Abdalaati Iguider. 

The Moroccan has medaled in the last three World indoor 1500m, including a World title in 2012, and his sound defeat of reigning 1500m World champ Ayanleh Souleiman a month ago (3:34.94 to 3:36.94) makes him a scary proposition for the rest of the field. Additionally, Iguider beat last year’s 5k Diamond League winner, 18-year-old Yomif Kejelcha, in the Stockholm 3k on February 17th, giving him two A-list scalps to boost his confidence. The 28-year-old is also entered in the 1500m (his primary event), however, and I would be surprised to see him run both. 

Ryan Hill isn’t in medal or bust mode, but his two races in 2016 have shown him to be within arm’s reach of some hardware. Coming off back-to-back 7:38 PRs, the latter his third straight US title and the #2 time in the World this season, Hill has never been hotter. 

Closing fast is now a foregone conclusion for the American, and his 26.36 last lap at Millrose is the type of speed that should have him optimistic about his chances. He told us yesterday that the key to contending with the Africans will be positioning— making sure that he’s within striking distance when the real drive for home starts. That part will be the toughest according to Hill, as he spoke about the difficulty to hang when initial “bursts” (rapid gear shifts) happen in tactical races, which can render closing speed meaningless. The 25-year-old told us that he feels like it takes him longer to get into top speed than some of the best in the world, but if he can weather that initial storm, his wheels are medal worthy.

Ryan Hill two days before his 3k prelim:



Two other men have good reason to like their gold medal chances: Yomif Kejelcha and Augustine Choge. I mentioned the young gun Kejelcha earlier, and he’s a serious threat considering he was the fastest 5k runner in the World last year and his only two losses have been narrow defeats to Iguider and Choge. The teenager is a fast closer, but he also has never faced this deep of a field on the indoor track. That inexperience might hurt him in his pursuit of gold. 

Choge has been dealt just one defeat this season, but that was at the hands of Mo Farah. Otherwise he’s taken valuable heads with Kejelcha and Ndiku, and has the experience of competing in the last three World Indoor 3,000m, including a silver in 2012. His 7:28 PR is the best in the field, although it’s more than five years old. 

The 29-year-old Kenyan isn’t the man he once was, as all of his PRs are relics. Despite his impressive wins to start the season, I’m more inclined to favor one of the younger guys in a championship race, especially since Choge has just one international medal to his credit.

One last note: DO NOT FORGET ABOUT PAUL CHELIMO. I put that in caps because it was embarrassing that I didn’t mention him in my USA preview, and then he kicked his way on the team. He has no international experience, but my God does he have a vicious kick. I would be surprised if he medaled as he’ll have to work through the first round, but I’m done sleeping on him. 

VERDICT: 

Gold: Caleb Ndiku- He cranks up the volume for championship races

Silver: Yomif Kejelcha- I can’t forget about his outdoor

Bronze: Ryan Hill- Time to announce himself on the World stage

Note: Despite his entry, I think Iguider will run the 1500.