2016 NCAA D1 Outdoor ChampionshipsMay 31, 2016 by Dennis Young
NCAA Qualifier Picks Recap: How'd We Do?
NCAA Qualifier Picks Recap: How'd We Do?
Before this weekend's NCAA Prelims, FloTrack predicted the men's and women's qualifiers in the distance events in the East and West. At Flo, we believe in a
Before this weekend's NCAA Prelims, FloTrack predicted the men's and women's qualifiers in the distance events in the East and West. At Flo, we believe in accountability and transparency, so we're checking in on how those picks performed.
Meg accurately predicted 85 of the 120 women's qualifiers, and Gordon accurately predicted 79 of the 120 men's qualifiers. But those numbers mean nothing without context—did their expertise provide any insight?
Yes! If you just picked the top 12 seeds in every distance event, you would have gone 81/120; Meg did 4.9% better than that. If you did the same for the men, you would have gone 71/120; Gordon outperformed that by 11.2%.
The full picks are below. The athletes we didn't pick who made it to Eugene are listed after the event, and the athletes we picked who didn't crack the top 12 are listed in parentheses.
WOMEN'S PICKS (MEG)
800: Keenan, Wilberding, Farrow, Mooney (Chamberlain, Harris, Martin, Jarvis) 8/12
1500: Vanpelt, Delaney, Price, Lucki (Moye, Hoevet, Paladino, Schmiede) 8/12
SC: Hehr, Weiler, Talbert (Lake, de la Bruyere, Waggoner) 9/12
5K: Tubbs, Tanner, Jameson (Montgomery, Moye, Westphal) 9/12
10K: Kellner, Blarney (Collins, Rocha) 10/12
800: Willard, Hamilton (Eisenbeiss, Nichols) 10/12
1500: Burdon, Neale, Hosker-Thornhill, McNamara (Hiltz, Mehra, Meyers, Waschmann) 8/12
SC: Contstein, Barr, Hukka, Urich (Berge, Child, Destefano, Strandemo) 8/12
5K: Dybedokken, Peloquin, Thackery, LaRocco, Ockenden (Grabill, Knight, Knights, Shanahan, Williams) 7/12
10K: Gomez, Berkholtz, Busch, Taylor (Roper, Grabill, Juodeskaite, Townsend) 8/12
TOTAL: 85/120
IF YOU JUST PICKED THE TOP 12 SEEDS: 81/120
MEN'S PICKS (GORDON)
800: Sanders, Sherrer, Harrison, Laari (Arroyo, Henderson, Lahbi, Willing) 8/12
1500: Domanic, Gowans, Malone, Gourley, Timlin (Oakley, Hubbard, O’Toole, Creese, Crawford) 7/12
SC: Mann, Carpenter, Allen, Fink (Benoit, Simon, Robertson, Tuck) 8/12
5K: Terer, Kipkoech, Flynn, Smoragiewicz, Dwyer (Derrick, Fink, Rainero, Vargas, Schwartzer) 7/12
10K: Germano, Parsons (McClintock, Lennon) 10/12
800: Heschel, Lilly, Uhr, Lambourne, Thomas (Orange, Livingston, Kinnaird, Kibet, Deng) 7/12
1500: Trouard, Horrocks, Rogers, Dorsey, Nelson (Brinkley, Burcham, Harris, Thompson, Zouhry) 7/12
SC: Blankenbaker, Albertson, Roth (Winter, Norris, Wilson) 9/12
5K: Linkletter, Geberkidane, Oelstad (Dressel, Everett, Scott) 9/12
10K: Traynor, Fischer, McMillan, King, Mathenge (Glines, Barraza, Goehler, Reichow, Ronoh) 7/12
TOTAL: 79/120
IF YOU JUST PICKED THE TOP 12 SEEDS: 71/120
Meg accurately predicted 85 of the 120 women's qualifiers, and Gordon accurately predicted 79 of the 120 men's qualifiers. But those numbers mean nothing without context—did their expertise provide any insight?
Yes! If you just picked the top 12 seeds in every distance event, you would have gone 81/120; Meg did 4.9% better than that. If you did the same for the men, you would have gone 71/120; Gordon outperformed that by 11.2%.
The full picks are below. The athletes we didn't pick who made it to Eugene are listed after the event, and the athletes we picked who didn't crack the top 12 are listed in parentheses.
WOMEN'S PICKS (MEG)
East
800: Keenan, Wilberding, Farrow, Mooney (Chamberlain, Harris, Martin, Jarvis) 8/12
1500: Vanpelt, Delaney, Price, Lucki (Moye, Hoevet, Paladino, Schmiede) 8/12
SC: Hehr, Weiler, Talbert (Lake, de la Bruyere, Waggoner) 9/12
5K: Tubbs, Tanner, Jameson (Montgomery, Moye, Westphal) 9/12
10K: Kellner, Blarney (Collins, Rocha) 10/12
West
800: Willard, Hamilton (Eisenbeiss, Nichols) 10/12
1500: Burdon, Neale, Hosker-Thornhill, McNamara (Hiltz, Mehra, Meyers, Waschmann) 8/12
SC: Contstein, Barr, Hukka, Urich (Berge, Child, Destefano, Strandemo) 8/12
5K: Dybedokken, Peloquin, Thackery, LaRocco, Ockenden (Grabill, Knight, Knights, Shanahan, Williams) 7/12
10K: Gomez, Berkholtz, Busch, Taylor (Roper, Grabill, Juodeskaite, Townsend) 8/12
TOTAL: 85/120
IF YOU JUST PICKED THE TOP 12 SEEDS: 81/120
MEN'S PICKS (GORDON)
East
800: Sanders, Sherrer, Harrison, Laari (Arroyo, Henderson, Lahbi, Willing) 8/12
1500: Domanic, Gowans, Malone, Gourley, Timlin (Oakley, Hubbard, O’Toole, Creese, Crawford) 7/12
SC: Mann, Carpenter, Allen, Fink (Benoit, Simon, Robertson, Tuck) 8/12
5K: Terer, Kipkoech, Flynn, Smoragiewicz, Dwyer (Derrick, Fink, Rainero, Vargas, Schwartzer) 7/12
10K: Germano, Parsons (McClintock, Lennon) 10/12
West
800: Heschel, Lilly, Uhr, Lambourne, Thomas (Orange, Livingston, Kinnaird, Kibet, Deng) 7/12
1500: Trouard, Horrocks, Rogers, Dorsey, Nelson (Brinkley, Burcham, Harris, Thompson, Zouhry) 7/12
SC: Blankenbaker, Albertson, Roth (Winter, Norris, Wilson) 9/12
5K: Linkletter, Geberkidane, Oelstad (Dressel, Everett, Scott) 9/12
10K: Traynor, Fischer, McMillan, King, Mathenge (Glines, Barraza, Goehler, Reichow, Ronoh) 7/12
TOTAL: 79/120
IF YOU JUST PICKED THE TOP 12 SEEDS: 71/120
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