2013 Columbia Final Qualifying MeetMar 6, 2013 by Mitch Kastoff
Lopez Lomong is Right on Pace
Lopez Lomong is Right on Pace
Lopez Lomong is Right on Pace
Lomong’s American indoor 5000m record wasn’t too surprising. Well, that’s not totally correct. We were amazed by his run at the Armory, but even more taken aback when we looked back at the data.
We’ve discovered that trying to use original equations (Enowitz Calculator, FloRatings) is basically a crapshoot. Even when pundits try and use seasonal progressions as indicators, nothing is ever perfect. Add the fact that we had very little data to predict Lomong’s time and the outcome was pretty funny.
So far, Lomong’s short indoor season is almost an exact replica of Lagat’s campaign from last year. The two had both run 3:36.x for 1500m (Lomong’s was en route) and 13:07.x for 5000m.
We’ll chalk it up to luck, but it doesn’t hurt to continue to look at what Lomong could be capable of doing in the next few months.
Following his 5000m American record last year, Lagat went on to win the indoor 3000m at World Champs and then take fourth in the Olympic 5000m final.
Could Lomong accomplish the same feats? No and maybe.
Based on his blog, we’re fairly sure that Lomong isn’t going to continue to run indoors. Bummer.
The second is that Lagat is one of the most fearsome kickers in the game and even though Lomong has the speed (1:46 earlier this season), the two ran their American records very differently.
For their last 400m, Lagat closed in a smooth 58-second while Lomong toughed out a 62-second split.
Again, the two are very different runners. A more 5000m savvy Lomong could be in the hunt for a medal in Moscow (if he makes the team). Don’t discount Lomong this summer and don’t base your predictions entirely on data. We’ve tried (and failed).
Lomong’s American indoor 5000m record wasn’t too surprising. Well, that’s not totally correct. We were amazed by his run at the Armory, but even more taken aback when we looked back at the data.
We’ve discovered that trying to use original equations (Enowitz Calculator, FloRatings) is basically a crapshoot. Even when pundits try and use seasonal progressions as indicators, nothing is ever perfect. Add the fact that we had very little data to predict Lomong’s time and the outcome was pretty funny.
So far, Lomong’s short indoor season is almost an exact replica of Lagat’s campaign from last year. The two had both run 3:36.x for 1500m (Lomong’s was en route) and 13:07.x for 5000m.
We’ll chalk it up to luck, but it doesn’t hurt to continue to look at what Lomong could be capable of doing in the next few months.
Following his 5000m American record last year, Lagat went on to win the indoor 3000m at World Champs and then take fourth in the Olympic 5000m final.
Could Lomong accomplish the same feats? No and maybe.
Based on his blog, we’re fairly sure that Lomong isn’t going to continue to run indoors. Bummer.
The second is that Lagat is one of the most fearsome kickers in the game and even though Lomong has the speed (1:46 earlier this season), the two ran their American records very differently.
For their last 400m, Lagat closed in a smooth 58-second while Lomong toughed out a 62-second split.
Again, the two are very different runners. A more 5000m savvy Lomong could be in the hunt for a medal in Moscow (if he makes the team). Don’t discount Lomong this summer and don’t base your predictions entirely on data. We’ve tried (and failed).
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