The fastest man over 5,000m and 10,000m in history will take to the Chicago streets on Sunday in pursuit of Dennis Kimetto’s course record of 2:03:45 from a year ago. Kenenisa Bekele will run his second career marathon in Chicago, and he will look to improve on his 2:05:03 debut which he set last April in Paris. Bekele’s transition from the track to the roads has drawn significant attention, as the Ethiopian is arguably the best distance runner in history. 

Bekele is a 17- time world champion and has three Olympic gold medals, as well as owning 5k/10k PRs of 12:37 and 26:17, respectively. Bekele has stated that his primary goal is breaking Kimetto’s record, and his lack of build-up races suggest that the 32-year old will be fresh and ready to go for Sunday. According to a Runner’s Worldpiece, Bekele felt a bit overtrained for Paris, and has made the proper adjustments heading into this race. If that is true, the rest of the field could be in a fight for second as his speed endurance in the final miles was unmatchable during his reign on the oval. Remember, this is the same guy who broke four minutes in the final mile of his 10k world record from 2005. 

We expect this race to be a duel between Kenenisa Bekele and Eliud Kipchoge, another former 5k/10k star making his transition to the 26.2 distance. Kipchoge has run three previous marathons, his fastest coming at the 2013 Berlin Marathon, a 2:04:05 second place finish. The Kenyan poses the biggest threat to Bekele on Sunday, as Kipchoge has the short distance speed (12:46/26:49) to match any late race surge that the world record holder may want to throw down. One point of contention for Kipchoge is his two race advantage in the experience department over 26.2 miles. While Bekele’s first attempt at the marathon was a success, he has not yet endured significant distress over the final miles yet, whereas Kipchoge has become more accustomed since turning to the event in 2012. 

The Case for Bekele: While we’ve already gone into Mr. Bekele’s track credentials, perhaps more impressive are the scalps he has taken in his last few road races. Most notable was his victory over Mo Farah and Haile Gebrselassie at the 2013 Great North Run, a race featuring the last three eras of track dominance. At that showdown, Farah and Bekele dueled over the final 400 meters of the 13.1 mile race before Farah’s rally ultimately came up just short. 

Although that race was more than a year ago, Bekele hasn’t done a lot of racing since then outside of Paris in April. While the masses may have forgotten about that race, it can’t be ignored that the supposedly ‘over-the-hill’ Bekele took down Farah right after the latter had swept the 5k/10k at Worlds. After taking down the best runner on the planet, Bekele has had another year to take his fitness to an even higher level. Enter the 2014 Chicago Marathon. 

The Case for Kipchoge: The Kenyan challenger boasts a credential on his resume that not even Bekele can claim. Kipchoge is one of three men in history to have a sub 12:50 5k and sub 2:05 marathon to his name, the other two being former world record holder’s Gebrselassie and Paul Tergat. 

This will be the first meeting between Kipchoge and Bekele on the roads, and it will be interesting to see if experience or history comes out on top. By experience, we refer to Kipchoge’s three marathons to Bekele’s one, and by history we go back to Bekele’s 11-3 record against the Kenyan on the track. With that lopsided of a mark in Bekele’s favor, it would appear that Kenny B knows just how to break Kipchoge. While the distance is much greater than when the two met on the track, Kipchoge will have to overcome that lack of confidence he has against Bekele dating back to the beat downs he took in the 5 and 10. Kipchoge’s best hope is that Bekele’s inexperience will cause him to wither when challenged in the latter miles as both begin to suffer. 

The Case for Everyone Else: Of course, a strong contingent of East Africans will be ready to pounce should both Bekele and Kipchoge have off days. Tadese Tola and Bernard Koech join Kipchoge as the only men in the field with sub 2:05 PRs, both times set at the 2013 Dubai Marathon. Both men have sub 60 half marathon speed, with Koech owning the fastest 13.1 clocked on US soil with his 58:41 in San Diego. Koech and Tola certainly have times that suggest they can hang with Bekele and Kipchoge, but the question is whether or not they can last when the pace gets really hot over the last few miles. Neither have the track credentials to match the favorites, and may need to take control of the pace earlier than usual to stunt any surges by Bekele.  

U-S-A U-S-A U-S-A?: While American distance fans have become accustomed to Dathan Ritzenhein’s annual trek to Chicago, they are not so lucky this year as Ritz won’t be running on Michigan Avenue for the first time since 2011. Ritz finished 5th here last year, but won’t compete this time as he had planned to target his next marathon early next year. Even that is on hold now as Ritz recovers from a recent ankle injury that caused him to pull out of the Philly Half. 

As far as the Americans actually in the field, Bobby Curtis headlines a group that would do well to have one man run below 2:10. Curtis owns the fastest PR of the bunch with his 2:13:24 from last December, but even if he ran out of his mind on Sunday, he will not be able to contend with the East African powerhouse. Although we’ve been treated to Americans becoming a lot more competitive in the distance events on the track in recent years, the road is an entirely different story, and we have yet to see an American contend in these sub 2:05 races. That won’t change on Sunday, but expect either Curtis or newcomer Matt Llano to take home top Yankee honors. Llano impressed with his 61:47 half in January, and is targeting a sub 2:10, but that seems unlikely after his 7th place finish at the US 20k Championships last month. We expect Llano to run somewhere in 2:13-14 arena, with Curtis finishing as top American in 2:12. 

Prediction: While Bekele is lacking in marathon experience, his talent is too much to deny even against this loaded field. He will most certainly have his hands full with Kipchoge, but 30k will be the site of the hammer being thrown down, as Bekele’s frequent surges will slowly break down his rival. The weather is expected to be in the 50s with a chance for rain, perfect conditions for Bekele to just miss Kimetto’s course record on Sunday. 2:03:50.