There is some uncertainty brewing this NCAA indoor season in the womenÂ’s distance events. Some mystery, too.

In part, thatÂ’s because two lock-tight certainties are out of eligibility; 2015 3k champ Dom Scott of Arkansas has only outdoor left, while 5k collegiate record holder and indoor/outdoor top dog Emily Sisson of Providence has graduated and runs for New Balance. Now factor in the injury bug that has hampered their projected heirs-apparent, and things get mysterious. Because running injuries are always a f***in mystery for whatever reason. 

HereÂ’s what IÂ’m trying to solve within the walls of this page: with so many variables to consider, who is going to win the womenÂ’s 3k and 5k at the NCAA Indoor Championships this March? HavenÂ’t thought about it? Well letÂ’s get you caught up.

An easy but somewhat lazy way to predict who will have the most success indoors is to take the best players from the cross country season and assume they are option #1 for the distance races. In a case like Edward Cheserek, who has skills that translate to every surface equally, this rationale is perfectly fine. On the womenÂ’s side in 2016 however, this is much too simplistic of an approach that doesnÂ’t take into account several high profile athletes who were injured this fall. In both the 3k and 5k, the top returners from last yearÂ’s championships—Elise Cranny (3k) and Sarah Disanza (5k)—didnÂ’t compete at all in cross country due to various ailments. Whether or not each is back to full strength will have a tremendous impact on their respective disciplines, which IÂ’ll dive into below. 

And of course, Stanford’s Aisling Cuffe has to be accounted for, what with a 15:11 5k PR and runner-up finishes indoor and outdoor in 2014. But after missing all of the 2015 track season with— you guessed it— an injury, and not being 100% this fall either, wildcard she is. She was 117th in Louisville, but again— 15:11!

Like I said, due to all those injuries and our tendency to drool over the cross country darlings, a couple names enter 2016 with the highest of stocks. After a dramatic victory in JuneÂ’s NCAA 10k and her curse-breaking NCAA XC win in November that ended a tired anomaly, Notre DameÂ’s Molly Seidel has never been hotter. The same can be said of NCAA XC runner-up Allie Ostrander of Boise State, who whipped pretty much everyone (including Seidel) leading up to Nationals as just a freshman. As it stands 2+ months away from NCAAs, Seidel is the 5k favorite while no one really knows what Ostrander is capable of (since sheÂ’s a freshman), or even which event(s) she will choose. However, Allie O and the 5k seems like a safe bet, as does the likelihood that sheÂ’ll be really good at it. 

The 5k may have Seidel as its favorite, but that still leaves us with the 3k. LetÂ’s start there. IÂ’ve taken some names that IÂ’m considering as potential candidates for the title and plotted out scenarios for why they will/wonÂ’t win in Birmingham. Here we go. 

3K

FAVORITE: Katrina Coogan (Georgetown); PR: 9:01.16

WHY SHEÂ’LL WIN:
Coogan is as experienced as they come. She's progressed in this event at NCAAs each of the last three seasons— 7th in 2013, 5th in 2014, and fourth last year. Plus, Coogan was out of XC eligibility so she got to use the entire fall to train.

WHY SHE WONÂ’T WIN:
Elise Cranny is somehow just as fit/fitter than she was in 2015. 

FAVORITE IF SHE'S HEALTHY: Elise Cranny (Stanford); PR: 8:58.88

WHY SHEÂ’LL WIN:
A freshman Cranny was second to Dom Scott in 2015 with a quick 8:58, an American junior record. 

WHY SHE WONÂ’T WIN:
She might not be nearly as fit as 2015 because of the injury. We emailed someone at Stanford about her status and got this: “she has been running for at least the past 6-8 weeks.” ThatÂ’s good news, but whether or not sheÂ’ll be able to get up to that full strength is still TBD. 

CONTENDER: Erin Teschuk (North Dakota St.); PR: 9:02.40

WHY SHEÂ’LL WIN:
Teschuk is fit right now. She just notched her first XC All-American nod (26th), and is coming off a track season where she ran disgusting PRs in every distance she attempted. After seemingly appearing out of thin air to finish 7th in the 3k and 5th in the mile last year, Teschuk is ready for the next step. Oh, and she can kick:


WHY SHE WONÂ’T WIN:
If she chooses to double again, that makes it awfully tough. 

ANOTHER CONTENDER: Rachele Schulist (Michigan State); PR: 9:01.25

WHY SHEÂ’LL WIN:
She almost broke 9 minutes last year and led the NCAA Championships for the first 11 laps.

WHY SHE WONÂ’T WIN:
The injury that ended her cross country season doesnÂ’t heal in time, plain and simple. Also, she was just ninth last year.

AND ANOTHER CONTENDER: Aisling Cuffe (Stanford); PR: 9:04.57

WHY SHEÂ’LL WIN:
2016 Cuffe will channel her inner 2014 Cuffe by staying healthy and running to her potential. Even the banged up version of her still managed to win PAC-12s in October, so imagine the possibilities if she can just avoid injury!

WHY SHE WONÂ’T WIN:
She canÂ’t avoid injury.

VERDICT:

Cranny's injury was just the break that Coogan needed.

5K

FAVORITE: Molly Seidel (Notre Dame); PR: 15:48.31

WHY SHEÂ’LL WIN:
Seidel has been on an absolute tear. Two NCAA titles in a row has her feeling pretty confident.

WHY SHE WONÂ’T WIN:
Besides Sarah Disanza somehow getting back to 15:20 fitness? I canÂ’t think of many other reasons. Seidel was sixth in this race last year, and that was before Seidel 2.0 took over. 

FAVORITE IF SHEÂ’S HEALTHY: Sarah Disanza (Wisconsin); PR: 15:20.27

WHY SHEÂ’LL WIN:
Top returner and um, FIFTEEN TWENTY! INDOORS! 

WHY SHE WONÂ’T WIN:
Disanza hasnÂ’t raced in almost 10 months.  

CONTENDER: Allie Ostrander (Boise State); PR: N/A

WHY SHEÂ’LL WIN:
Remember when she broke Abbey DÂ’s Wisco course record by 12 seconds? 

WHY SHE WONÂ’T WIN:
SheÂ’s a freshman with no experience in this race. 

ANOTHER CONTENDER: Aisling Cuffe (Stanford); PR: 15:11.13 (o)

WHY SHEÂ’LL WIN:
This is her distance. She was 2nd in 2014. 

WHY SHE WONÂ’T WIN:
117th at NCAA XC makes her a tough choice.

AND ANOTHER CONTENDER: Rhona Auckland (New Mexico); PR: 15:27.60 (o)

WHY SHEÂ’LL WIN:
She has the top PR by someone not named Cuffe or Disanza. 

WHY SHE WONÂ’T WIN:
Cross country is her strength and she was just 13th in Louisville. 

THE LAST CONTENDER I PROMISE: Chelsea Blaase (Tennessee); PR: 15:47.52

WHY SHEÂ’LL WIN:
Talk about under the radar. Blaase was fourth in the indoor 5k last year. Raise your hand if you knew that.

WHY SHE WONÂ’T WIN:
In 2014, Blaase beat Seidel by 12 seconds at NCAA XC. This year? Seidel beat Blaase by 39 seconds. 

VERDICT:

Without having seen Disanza race in what seems like forever, I have to stick with Seidel. But Disanza and her 15:20 ability mean serious business if back on form.