Heading into the 2013 NCAA cross country championships the greatness of Oregon's Edward Cheserek was a complete unknown.

In fact, the narrative leading up to nationals was about the almost "guaranteed" victory for Texas Tech's Kennedy Kithuka, who was coming off beating dynamic Arizona duo Stephen Sambu and Lawi Lalang the previous season. Kithuka was undefeated on the grass in 2013, blowing away the field in almost every race.


Texas Tech's Kennedy Kithuka, left, on his way to his first NCAA title in 2012.

Cheserek's freshman cross country season was not indicative of his eventual domination either. Cheserek finished runner-up by five seconds to Washington's Aaron Nelson on his home course and was fourth at Pre-Nationals, losing to Kithuka, Anthony Rotich, and Chris O'Hare. Cheserek did show a sign of his potential after winning the Pac-12 Championships, however, the jury was still out to see how the true freshman would handle the national championship stage.

Edward Cheserek took fourth in the 2013 Pre-Nationals race:

Four years later we may be in store for a similar story…

A 15-time NCAA champion, Cheserek is a "guaranteed" lock to win his fourth cross country title in many people's eyes. After all, he has shown zero signs of weakness this year, and all of his potential individual challengers such as Futsum Zienasellassie, Patrick Tiernan, and Justyn Knight have lost to him multiple times in the past.

However, there is one runner in the NCAA who doesn't have a losing resume to Cheserek: Middle Tennessee State freshman Jacob Choge, the younger brother of 3:29/12:53 man Augustine Choge. Jacob Choge has flown under the radar pretty much all season, having not raced in any top-25 team invitationals this year. Choge has finished runner-up to Louisville All-American Edwin Kibichy twice this year and defeated UTEP's Jonah Koech by 11 seconds to win his first Conference USA championship this past Saturday. Choge's season is eerily similar to Cheserek's freshman season--no big individual wins during the regular season and then a convincing conference title win to start the postseason.

Jacob Choge's first collegiate win was a Conference USA title this past Saturday:


Obviously, all signs point to Cheserek winning his fourth title, and Choge defeating him in November would arguably be the biggest upset in NCAA history. However, just like in 2013, we all thought Kithuka was unbeatable, and Cheserek was top 10 at best. We were all wrong. Maybe we will all be wrong again in 2016.