Perhaps no one in the country is better at predicting high school cross country than New York's Bill Meylan, who has been doing speed ratings since at least 2000. We're reposting his NXN preview from Tullyrunners.com with permission.

General comments on projection

The morning-line at most horse tracks considers three factors: (1) past performance history of each horse, (2) an opinion of what people are likely to bet, and (3) a handicapping opinion of the person making the morning-line.

The Boys Race at NXN Nationals 2016 looks very competitive ... Nearly half the field has a legitimate shot at making the podium ... I can see nine teams as possible winners ... A few have better probabilities  of winning than others, but the race needs to be run and you never know! ... Neuqua Valley, American Fork, Great Oak and Brentwood have virtually identical probabilities of winning.

NXN Nationals is a special race because all 22 teams are top national teams ... There are no poor teams in this race ... Ever year I get comments from fans of teams projected to finish at or near the bottom ... "How can you pick a team this good to finish that bad" ... Well, NXN is like a top Stakes-Grade horse race where all the horses are really good ... and often it is harder to pick who will finish last than who will finish first.

As noted above, some of the teams are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams ... This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.

Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and predicting the exact order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree ....

Note: I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off" races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run well).

Remember ... Teams performing at (or above) performance levels getting them to NXN Nationals typically jump up significantly in projected finish-positions.

Boys projected scores

   1   Neuqua Valley          IL    198  (Midwest   )
   2   American Fork          UT    199  (Southwest )
   3   Great Oak              CA    204  (California)
   4   Brentwood              TN    206  (Southeast )
   5   Bozeman                MT    212  (Northwest )
   6   The Woodlands          TX    228  (South     )
   7   Christian Brothers     NJ    235  (Northeast )
   8   Downers Grove North    IL    245  (Midwest   )
   9   Wayzata                MN    258  (Heartland )
   10  Dana Hills             CA    282  (California)
   11  Summit                 OR    292  (Northwest )
   12  Mahomet-Seymour        IL    302  (Midwest   )
   13  Liverpool              NY    308  (New York  )
   14  Staples                CT    321  (Northeast )
   15  Davis UT               UT    325  (Southwest )
   16  St. Xavier (Lou)       KY    334  (Southeast )
   17  Springville            UT    337  (Southwest )
   18  Southlake Carroll      TX    338  (South     )
   19  Fayetteville-Manlius   NY    363  (New York  )
   20  Edina                  MN    364  (Heartland )
   21  Cathedral Catholic     CA    373  (California)
   22  Woodlands College Park TX    403  (South     )

Takes on boys teams

Neuqua Valley IL ... Neuqua Valley gets placed at the #1 position above for several reasons ... Neuqua Valley has the best team score in a merge of all NXN regional races, and I picked Neuqua Valley as the NXN winner in the pre-season ... Neuqua Valley goes 7-deep in team scoring with an excellent team-spread at a high performance level ... Neuqua Valley won NXN in 2007 when NXN was still known as NTN (top runner Chris Derrick was also the winning individual) ... Neuqua Valley will be difficult to beat if they can duplicate their NXR Midwest performance ... But other teams here have shown an ability to equal (and maybe exceed) that performance level.

American Fork UT ... American Fork finished 2nd at NXN last year, 5th in 2014, 7th in 2013 and 2nd in 2012 ... American Fork has one of the best cross country programs in the nation ... They are consistently good and have a real shot at winning this year ... American Fork has outstanding strength at the top end with their top three runners projection to finish in the top 10 of all team runners ... that is remarkably helpful in team scoring of a race having a 22-team limit ... The question becomes "How many runners from other teams can be placed in between American Fork's 3rd, 4th and 5th scorers?" ... Good seasonal performances by American Fork's 4th and 5th scorers could easily spell victory for American Fork ... I gave Neuqua Valley a small advantage here (and in the pre-season) over  American Fork due to being 7 runners deep ... Not considering depth makes American Fork a slight favorite, and American Fork was the top team based on State Meet speed ratings.

Great Oak CA ... Great Oak is the defending NXN champion ... Great Oak had a season-best performance at the California State Meet ... Great Oak has been improving throughout the season and are now a real threat to repeat as the NXN champion ... Great Oak has proven they can run well at Glendoveer Golf Course ... I think Great Oak has a real chance of winning this race. 

Note ... I used CA State Meet as California's NXN regional race and the SS-Finals for their "State" meet ratings above - This is an advantage for California teams (in terms of high speed ratings at regionals) because the CA State Meet is an in-season meet at a familiar location that most CA teams "focus-on" and go all-out to perform ..... Not all, but many teams coming to NXN from around the country have higher speed ratings at their State meets compared to their NXN regional meets ... some are not allowed to have their school coaches out-of-season ... many have to travel out-of-state and run on unfamiliar courses.

Brentwood TN ... Brentwood is very strong at the top end (similar to American Fork) ... Brentwood is the 2nd-best scoring team based on NXR regional speed ratings and 3rd-best based on State meet speed ratings (behind Neuqua Valley based on a 6th-man tie-break) ... Similar caveat applies to Brentwood as to American Fork - How many runners will fit between 4th and 5th scorers?

Bozeman MT ... Bozeman finished a very good 8th at NXN last year and they appear to be stronger this year.

The Woodlands TX ... Similar to last year, The Woodlands had a good performance at the Texas State Meet (4th-best best among all NXN teams on speed ratings shown above) ... The Woodlands was not nearly as good at the NXN South regional ... Top runner (William Hunsdale) did not compete at NXR South, but he did run at Footlocker South the following week, so I included him in my team projections above (significant difference without him) ... The Woodlands finished a very good 6th last year at NXN, and could equal or exceed that with a good team performance here ... The Woodlands is the top-projected At-Large team.

Christian Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers Academy (CBA) is a many time competitor at NXN ... CBA-NJ finished 20th NXN last year, 11th in 2014,  2nd in 2013, 4th in 2012 and CBA won NXN in 2011 ... CBA is a serious threat if all five scorers can perform well on the same day.

Downers Grove North IL ... Downers Grove North performed very nicely at both NXR Midwest and the Illinois State Meet ... Similar high level performance at NXN makes them a serious podium contender.

Wayzata MN ... Wayzata finished 14th at NXN last year, and Wayzata has better depth this season ... Wayzata is a podium threat.

Dana Hills CA ... Dana Hills finished 3rd at NXN last year, so Dana Hills runs well at Glendoveer Golf Course. 

Liverpool NY ... Liverpool finished 10th at NXN last year, 4th in 2014 and 20th in 2013 ... Liverpool is another team that is very strong at the top end ... three runners are projected to finish in the top 20 of all team runners.

Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto-qualifier to NXN the last nine years! ... Fayetteville-Manlius won NXN 2014 ... Only six guys competed at NXR New York (one runner was hospitalized with a medical issue).

Takes on boys individuals

David Principe Jr (La Salle Acad) broke the Bowdoin Park course record at NXR New York and got the highest speed rating in US thus far this season (202) ... he also has ratings of 199 and 198 to his credit, but in one of those races (Great American Festival), he was beaten by Brodey Hasty (Brentwood).

Casey Clinger (American Fork) is the defending champion from NXN 2015, and he has run exceptionally well this season ... I think it will take an exceptional performance to beat Casey Clinger in this race ... but this race has a bunch of runners capable of an exceptional performance.

Finn Gessner and Seth Hirsch popped 199 ratings at NXR Heartland ... Brodey Hasty, Finn Gessner and Seth Hirsch finished 7th, 8th and 9th respectively at NXN last year (they were the top underclassmen behind Casey Clinger last year).

Should be a good & interesting race.

Girls projected scores

   1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY     66   (New York  )
   2   Great Oak             CA     98   (California)
   3   Davis Senior          CA    194   (California)
   4   Carmel                IN    211   (Midwest   )
   5   Desert Vista          AZ    229   (Southwest )
   6   Bozeman               MT    249   (Northwest )
   7   Minooka               IL    260   (Midwest   )
   8   Edina                 MN    271   (Heartland )
   9   Southlake Carroll     TX    272   (South     )
   10  Willmar               MN    275   (Heartland )
   11  Keller                TX    283   (South     )
   12  Naperville North      IL    299   (Midwest   )
   13  Shenendehowa          NY    309   (New York  )
   14  Blacksburg            VA    324   (Southeast )
   15  Sunset                OR    340   (Northwest )
   16  Lake Braddock         VA    342   (Southeast )
   17  Palos Verdes          CA    347   (California)
   18  Mountain Vista        CO    349   (Southwest )
   19  Summit                OR    360   (Northwest )
   20  Broomfield            CO    361   (Southwest )
   21  North Hunterdon       NJ    370   (Northeast )
   22  Souhegan              NH    481   (Northeast )

Takes on girls teams

Fayetteville-Manlius NY  ... Fayetteville-Manlius has won 9 of the last 10 NXN National Championships and are the favorite again ... This year, however, Fayetteville-Manlius has one handicapping vulnerability missing from last year ... That being team depth ... Last year, Fayetteville-Manlius would have won NXN counting only team runners 3rd-7th (that is amazing) ... I doubt that could happen this year (but who knows) ... Fayetteville-Manlius will likely need to falter in a scoring position to create an opportunity for other teams.

Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 3rd at NXN last year and 2nd in 2014 ... Great Oak is very good again this year and they go 7 runners deep ... Great Oak has performed well at the new NXN course at Glendoveer, so look for another good performance by Great Oak this year.

Davis Senior CA ... Davis Senior surprised many people by finishing 2nd at NXN last year ...Like last year, Davis Senior had a season-best performance at the California State Meet where they lost to Great Oak in the Division 1 Championship race ... Davis Senior is a serious contender for another podium finish.

Carmel IN ... Carmel has raced very well at NXN ... Carmel has finished 8th (2015), 3rd (2014), 4th (2013), 3rd (2012), 5th (2011) and 7th (2010) ... Carmel won the NXR Midwest race despite a no-finish by top runner Sarah Leinheiser (who was 7th at NXN and 8th at Footlocker last year) ... Leinheiser started the NXR Midwest race but was stopped by her coach (she was seen on the victory stand afterwards wearing a protective "boot") ... I do not know her status for NXN Nationals, but I'm assuming she is running so I guessed she might be their #5 scorer ... that gives Carmel a real shot at a podium position.

Desert Vista AZ ... Desert Vista was favored to win NXR Southwest, but they finished 2nd to Mountain Vista ... Something similar happened in 2014 (losing to American Fork at NXR), but Desert Vista came back with a very good performance to finish 5th at NXN 2014 ... This season, Desert Vista had several excellent team performances (Woodbridge Classic CA, Desert Twilight Festival and the George Fox Invite OR) ... Desert Vista is a serious podium contender if they can duplicate those earlier season performances ... I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt.

Bozeman MT ... Bozeman won the NXR Northwest race handily ... Duplicating season-best speed ratings makes Bozeman another serious podium contender.

Minooka IL ... Minooka is the top-projected At-Large team ... Minooka is very strong at the top four scoring positions ... a good performance by the 5th scorer puts Minooka within reach of the podium.

Edina MN ... Willmar MN ... Southlake Carroll TX ... Very little seems to separate these teams ... All three may be capable of podium spots with some season-best performances.

Naperville North IL ... Naperville North finished 14th at NXN last year and 4th in 2014 ... Naperville North performs consistently at a high level.

Shenedehowa NY ... Only two New York teams are competing at NXN 2016 ... Shenedehowa captured the 2nd auto-qualifying spot at NXR New York ... Shenedehowa is similar to Minooka with strong scoring at the top four positions.

Takes on girls individuals

This year's race is once again deep and talented ... 20 girls have a speed rating of 150 or higher (two more than last year) ... As can be seen in the list below (approximate best speed ratings), the majority of top runners in this race are competing as individuals (and not running on a team).

Brie Oakley is the favorite entering the race ... she is undefeated in 2016 and has the highest individual speed rating in the nation (165) ... Claudia Lane (Malibu CA) has the second highest speed rating of 158 (run at California States), but I believe she is running Footlocker instead of NXN.

Allie Schadler ran a 157 speed rating at the Arizona State Meet, and a 151 at NXR Southwest (where Brie Oakley ran a 158) ... I read an article mentioning that Allie Schadler rolled an ankle in the first mile of NXR Southwest, so maybe she can go faster at NXN Nationals ... Note - one speed rating point equals 3 seconds.

Kelsey Chmiel also has a 157 rating to her credit ... NY has five girls at 151 or higher ... Katherine Lee (Shoreham Wading River NY) is undefeated this season (she won the NXR New York race impressively), so it will be interesting to see how she races on the other side of the United States.

A bunch of runners are serious contenders for a top position ... This could be a really good race with lots of girls vying for a top five placing ... I'm expecting Brie Oakley to be on or near the lead early ... Kelsey Chmiel also likes to run on the front end ... a bunch of runners are likely to be in a pack close behind unless Brie Oakley tries to open a significant gap on the field ... Kate Murphy has remarkable track credentials and if she is close near the end, look out! .... This is a really good top-quality race.