For the second straight year, Oregon's title chances are slightly more precarious than expected after losing sprinter Hannah Cunliffe to an injury ahead of the NCAA Outdoor Championships, which run Wednesday through Saturday in Eugene, OR. But this year's team is so good that it would probably take a second catastrophe (like Jasmine Todd's 2016 last-second academic drama) to knock the Ducks off. No NCAA women's team has ever won team titles in cross country, indoor track, and outdoor track in a single year, and Oregon is pretty likely to complete that sweep.

Head coach Robert Johnson is fine with the pressure, telling reporters this week that "We're going to talk about it probably ad nauseam until the meet. It's something that never has been done. It's also special and unique. And we're up for the challenge to try to do that." Johnson also said that "Oregon is going to be a target whether you're 50th or you're first," but the Ducks have only won one women's outdoor title in the last 30 years.

Three teams could beat Oregon this week: Arkansas, Georgia, and USC. Here's how each of the four favorites could win or lose the NCAA title. All point projections are based off the FloTrack rankings.

Oregon

​Projected: 69 points

​10 Ariana Washington 1st 100
10 Ariana Washington 1st 200
10 Raevyn Rogers 1st 800
10 4x400 relay 1st
6 Deajah Stevens 3rd 200
6 Deajah Stevens 3rd 100
6 Sasha Wallace 3rd 100H
4 Elexis Guster 5th 400
3 Alaysha Johnson 6th 100H
2 Brooke Feldmeier 7th 800
2 Katie Rainsberger 7th 1500

​How can they win? ​A standard performance from Ariana Washington, Raevyn Rogers, Deajah Stevens, and the relay would lock up the title. Washington is the defending NCAA champ in the 100 and 200, while Stevens has been the arguably best collegiate sprinter at both distances this season. If the Ducks take first and third in some fashion in the two sprints, Rogers wins the 800, and the 4x400 relay takes second, that gives Oregon 50 points from three women and a relay. If Washington and Stevens go 1-2 in both sprints and the relay wins, then the Ducks will have an even easier win than the rankings project. No other team is projected to score more than 50, and the rest of Oregon's roster can provide the margin.​

We only have Katie Rainsberger and Samantha Nadel projected to combine for two points, but they were third and fourth in the indoor 3K. Chaquin Cook could steal a point or two over projections in the triple jump. And sprinters Alaysha Johnson, Elexis Guster, and Sasha Wallace are all projected to make finals and combine for 13 points.

​How can they lose? ​Have another meet like they did at regionals. Hannah Cunliffe pulled out of the 100 and 200 and the 4x100 collegiate record holders were disqualified. If Washington, Stevens, or Rogers goes down, or the 4x4 drops the stick in the prelims, that opens the door even more to other teams.​



For the next three teams, the answer to "how can they lose?" is the same: Oregon has a strong meet. The more interesting question for them is what it would take for them to win.

Georgia

​Projected: 50 points

10 Madeline Fagan 1st HJ
10 Keturah Orij 1st TJ
10 Kendell Williams 1st HEP
8 Tatiana Gusin 2nd HJ
6 Keturah Orji 3rd LJ
4 Kate Hall 5th LJ
2 Beatrice Llano 7th HT

​How can they win? ​It will be tough for Georgia to beat projections, because we have most of the Bulldogs' scorers finishing in the top three in their events. Keturah Orji and Kate Hall could go crazy and both finish in the top three in the long jump, but they were fourth and fifth at SEC outdoors and third and fourth at NCAA indoors, respectively. It will be very tough. Aliyah Johnson and Kayla Smith could maybe pick up a point each in the triple jump and pole vault, but the UGA's best bet is someone from Oregon pulling a hamstring or dropping a baton. If the Ducks' projection suddenly dips to around 55 points or so, then Georgia will be waiting.​

USC

 
​Projected: 47 points

​8 Kendell Ellis 2nd 400
8 Deanna Hill 2nd 200 
8 Amalie Iuel 2nd 400H
8 4x400 relay 2nd
6 Anna Cockrell 3rd 400H
5 Brittany Mann 4th SP
2 Cameron Pettigrew 7th 400
1 Deanna Hill 8th 100
1 Anna Cockrell 8th 100H

​How can they win? ​Deanna Hill has a chance to directly take points off the Oregon women in the 100 and 200; Anna Cockrell has the same chance in the 100 hurdles. If those two combine for more than 10 individual points, they're likely also taking away from the Ducks. Kendell Ellis absolutely could win the 400; USC's 4x400 broke the collegiate record indoors and beat Oregon, meaning the Trojans could win at Hayward on Saturday.​

That's only five points or so, though, which is not enough to beat a full-strength Ducks team. What it will take for USC to win is two sprinters replicating its 2015 NCAA meet. Dior Hall was third in the 100 hurdles, and Ky Westbrook was fourth in the 100 that year. Neither has been a first-team (top eight) All-American indoors or outdoors since. If they can make finals, they have the talent to put up big points, and that would get USC close to 60 points. If Oregon is just having a solid meet and not a great one, that could be enough to win.

Arkansas

Projected: 43 points​

10 Lexi Weeks 1st PV
8 Taliyah Brooks 2nd HEP
6 Payton Stumbaugh 3rd HEP
5 Daina Harper 4th 400
4 Tori Weeks 5th PV
3 Leigha Brown 6th HEP
3 Therese Haiss 6th 1500
3 Damajahness Birch 6th 400H
1 Kelsey Herman 8th HEP

​How can they win? ​Even though we have Arkansas projected fourth, the defending champion Razorbacks might have the best chance to beat Oregon. Nikki Hiltz (mile) and Desiree Freier (pole vault) were both sixth in their events at NCAA indoors and have looked even better outdoors. Hiltz outkicked NCAA champions Karissa Schweizer and Rhianwedd Price to win the 1500 at the SEC meet, while Freier was third behind the Weeks sisters in the vault.​

The pole vault, heptathlon, and 1500 meters will be the meet for the Razorbacks. We have the Weeks sisters projected to win and take fifth. Any better than fifth would be Tori Weeks' best NCAA meet ever, but she and Freier could both crack the top five and pick up big points against projections. It will be hard to beat the projections in the heptathlon--we have the Razorbacks taking second, third, sixth, and eighth there. But they need those points to even have a shot. And Hiltz and Haiss will need to combine for more than three points (and beating Katie Rainsberger wouldn't hurt) in the 1500.