Why Alabama Is Still Ranked 11th In The NCAA

Why Alabama Is Still Ranked 11th In The NCAA

Why Alabama Is Still 11th In The NCAA despite their 8th place finish at Notre Dame.

Oct 3, 2017 by Gordon Mack
Why Alabama Is Still Ranked 11th In The NCAA
This past weekend, the Alabama men debuted their full squad at the Joe Piane Notre Dame XC Invitational in Indiana, finishing eighth overall with 200 team points. At first glance, one might assume the Crimson Tide fell short of their 11th FloXC pre-season ranking after losing to five unranked teams.

However, Alabama actually did more to validate their pre-season ranking, and here's why.

SEE UPDATED FloXC RANKINGS HERE

1) Alabama's top three proved they are as good as we think they are.

The Kenyan trio went 1-2-3 at Notre Dame with convincing wins over All-American Joe Klecker (Colorado) and 13:34 5K runner Mike Tate (Southern Utah).

Deservingly, all three men are now ranked in the FloXC Top 25:

No. 4 Gilbert Kigen
No. 7 Vincent Kiprop
No. 19 Alfred Chelanga

2) Alabama still looks to be able to advance out of the South Regional.

Alabama competes in one of the weaker regions, and looks to only have one true contender in Middle Tennessee State. Other potential top-two contenders are Ole Miss and Florida State. Alabama beat Florida State convincingly at Notre Dame, and Ole Miss -- who finished second at the Cowboy Jamboree -- appears to be in rebuilding mode after graduating multiple seniors last year.

Let's take a look at last year's South Regional results with redshirts/graduates removed and Alabama's trio added:

Pl Athlete YR School
1 Kigen, Gilbert JR Alabama
2 Kiprop, Vincent JR Alabama
3 Chelanga, Alfred JR Alabama
4 Choge, Jacob SO Mid. Tenn. State
5 Chemadi, Kigen JR Mid. Tenn. State
6 Guillorel, Arse'ne SR Samford
7 Tobin, Sean SR Mississippi
8 Boit, Gilbert SO Tennessee Tech
9 Kamau, Bryan SR Georgia
10 Long, Zach JR Tennessee
11 Morken, Nick JR North Florida
12 Cheruiyot, Amos SR Mid. Tenn. State
13 Laari, Sampson SR Mid. Tenn. State
14 Navarro, Daniel SR Georgia
15 Cheruiyot, Geoffry SR Mid. Tenn. State
16 Pectol, Wesley SR Auburn
17 Sprague, Austin SR Georgia
18 Cross, Steven SO Florida State
19 Bryant, Ben JR Samford
20 Wyss, Kevin SR Auburn
21 Kelley, Bryce SR Florida State
22 Hall, Michael SR Florida State
23 Solomon, Nahom SR Georgia Tech
24 Pittman, Frank SO Georgia Tech
25 Stahl, Tyler SR North Florida
26 Grady, Alex SR Georgia Tech
27 Westog, Eric JR Georgia
28 Robertson, Mark SR Mississippi
29 Munns, Matthew JR Georgia Tech
30 Short, Josh JR Alabama
31 Caldwell, Taylor JR Mississippi
32 Dean, Dillon SO Samford
33 Sanders, Mitchell JR Georgia Tech
34 Grossman, Sean SR Miami
35 Leber, Brent JR Lipscomb
36 Hasty, Gavin JR Chattanooga
37 Edwards, Matthew SR Belmont
38 Prizy, Evan SR Alabama
39 Shaw, Tanner JR Georgia Tech
40 Richardson, Paul SR Samford

Top Two Projected Scores:

1) 49 points Middle Tennessee State
1) 74 points Alabama

Obviously, results change year to year, but with the addition of a potential 1-2-3 finish in 2017 the Crimson Tide are formidable contenders for a top-two regional team finish.

3) Under the NCAA scoring system, the Crimson Tide are still pretty good in a worst-case scenario.

Based on our FloXC rankings, we believe Alabama's top three could score 30 points. Even if Alabama's fourth and fifth man finished second to last and last overall, they would add 214 and 215 points respectively bringing their team total to 459 points, which would have placed a team 18th overall at last year's NCAA championships. So worst-case scenario Alabama is a top-20 team purely based on their first three runners.

4) Alabama's fourth and fifth men might be good enough.

Now obviously it's hard to imagine Alabama's fourth and fifth finishing dead last at NCAAs, so how many points could one expect from these two? One fun way to imagine their potential is to see how similar athletes did at Notre Dame vs NCAAs last year.

2016 ND Finish 2016 NCAA Score
Patrick Sheehan (NC State) 73rd 104
John Lawson (California) 130th 166
2017 ND Finish 2017 NCAA Score
Josh Short (Alabama) 75th TBD
Garrett Bull (Alabama) 131st TBD

Now obviously this comparison can be wildly inaccurate, but it does show that Alabama's fourth/fifth men have at least the potential to score around 300 points between the two of them. And if that happens, Alabama could be looking at 330 team points, which would have been good for 11th last year.

So there you have it, the results may look weird, but Alabama has the ingredients to be a top-15 team despite their eighth-place finish at Notre Dame.