Simon Bairu - ING New York City Marathon

Oct 27, 2010 by Christopher Kelsall

There is a buzz of excitement north of the border about Simon Bairu of Regina, Saskatchewan and his upcoming debut at the ING New York City Marathon Nov. 7.

Interest in Bairu’s race is due to the oft-suggested likelihood that he may take down the very old - and by today’s standards, fairly modest Canadian marathon record of 2:10:08, which was set by Jerome Drayton at the 1975 Fukuoka Marathon 35 years ago.

Many are anticipating Bairu’s performance, for example Guelph, Ontario’s Reid Coolsaet who recently ran nearly a minute off that record with his 2:11:23 at the Toronto Waterfront Marathon, blogged that he is also really looking forward to seeing it.

Bairu has also been writing about his pending debut at the New York Times website. To suggest he is anticipatory of his first marathon would be a slight understatement.

“…on Nov. 7 as I stand on the start line, staring down the Verrazano-Narrows Bridge with anticipation and adrenaline flowing through my veins, I will remember that I do not stand alone. I will be accompanied by all those who have helped me throughout my life prepare for this moment.”

Resume

Bairu holds the Canadian record for 10,000 meters with his time of 27:23. He also ran a 1:02:08 at the Philadelphia half-marathon in September. He has won 7 Canadian Cross-Country Championships - with 5 consecutive wins - a streak that is second only to the legendary Paul McCloy of Newfoundland, who won 6 in a row.

Bairu is a two-time NCAA Cross-Country Champion, competing as a Wisconsin Badger. He now trains with the Nike Oregon Project and Kimbia Athletics with American 10,000m record holder Chris Solinsky, both are coached by Jerry Schumacher. Bairu more recently has been training with Tim Nelson and Shalane Flanagan, who will also be debuting at the marathon distance in NY.

He ran to within 44 seconds of gold at the 2010 IAAF World Cross Country Championships, finishing in 13th place. World Cross is perhaps the most competitive foot race on the planet.

Considering New York’s rolling profile, is the course fast enough to warrant the expectations of a potential new Canadian record?

It is a widely accepted probability that a debut marathon performance will not reflect the full potential of the athlete. In fact it often takes several attempts to run one’s best. There are recent exceptions however, for example there is Ryan Hall, fastest born American at the marathon with his 2:08:24 debut, followed by his personal best 2:06:17 performance. Also Sammy Wanjiru, Olympic Gold Medalist debuted with his 2:06:39 clocking followed up with a 2:05:24.

Doing the math with the McMillan Calculator

McMillan’s Calculator from the McMillan Running website indicates that if you achieve a 10,000m time of 27:23 and have carried out the requisite training, this time could project to a marathon result of 2:08:30, well within the Canadian record and a very impressive debut to say the least.

Bairu’s half-marathon from Philadelphia was a performance – at least in terms of time-based comparisons, that does not measure up to his 10,000m best, which he achieved on the Stanford track during the 2010 Payton Jordan International meet. The Philadelphia half result projects to a 2:12:06 marathon according to the McMillan Running calculator.

Keep in mind that Bairu was very likely in the middle of high-volume training in September and therefore was not rested like he will be for New York. Also Bairu ran a positive split in Philly yet the first half of the course is gently rolling and the second half is flat according to the elevation profile located at the event website.

Simon said, “I definitely trained through it. As far as the course goes, it's relatively fast with a couple of small hills, but it was hot and humid so that did not help either.”

The McMillan Running calculator suggests that a 27:44 - 10,000m projects to Drayton’s record of 2:10:08. Drayton achieved the marathon record with a 10,000m best of 28.13.74. Fukuoku, where Drayton achieved this time, provides a faster course than does New York. Coolsaet, who ran his 2:11:23 at the Toronto Waterfront Marathon has a 10,000m personal best of 27:56. In comparison Wanjiru ran a 27:20 10, 000m, 6 months before his debut marathon.

Clearly there are variables that influence the final result of a marathon that are out of an athlete's control, for example: hills, corners and weather.

Based on this information and providing Bairu has been doing the training (he has) the record will be within reach. The greater question is: Will it happen in New York on November 7th during his debut marathon or perhaps in the spring of 2011? We will have to wait until November 7th to find out. Meanwhile because of recent very strong performances by Canadians Eric Gillis and Reid Coolsaet and the interest in Bairu‘s debut, there is finally a buzz of anticipation stirring north of the border.