Mt. Sac Distance Preview

Mt. Sac Distance Preview

Apr 14, 2011 by Paul From Flotrack
Mt. Sac Distance Preview


(LIVE coverage of Mt. Sac starts Friday at 5:50 pm PST, and will resume Saturday at 9 am PST --- Thursday night's races will be up as soon as possible.)

Flipping through the Mt. Sac heat sheets and looking at the distance events, one can't help but wonder ... What if every American track & field meet were like this?  Many of the top runners in the country duking it out every week at some marquee meet.  How great would that be?!  If you haven't seen the heat sheets ... most of these elite races are ridiculously deep.  Take a look ...

Here are some big ones:

Women's 1500
Big names : Shalane Flanagan, Lisa Koll, Sheila Reid, Jessica Pixler, Alice Schmidt, Lauren Centrowitz, Brenda Martinez

In what has become the norm (particularly with the Oregon Project), a lot of the top 5k and 10k runners use Sac as a shorter and faster tuneup for Stanford, two weeks later.  That certainly is the case here, as Flanagan and Koll dip down in distance to race a 1500.  

This race will be incredible to watch ... Flanagan (usually 10k to marathon), Koll (10k), Reid and Pixler (1500 to 3k), and Alice Schmidt (800 to mile) all collide over the same distance.  It's a hard one to figure, because the 1500 is such a unique blend of strength and speed.  It's not unusual to see a distance runner outkick a mid-distance runner over the 1500 distance.

My take :  Sheila Reid
Having the privilege of watching Pixler for many years at Seattle Pacific, I have to think she'll want to lead, as she is ever the frontrunner.   But she won't be able to pull away from this field.  I like Reid, particularly because it's her distance of choice.  She has to be confident in her closing capabilities over Flanagan and Koll ... although, like I said, strength-kicks stopped surprising me a long time ago.

Women's 5k
Big names : Molly Huddle, Sara Slattery, Jordan Hasay, Angela Bizzarri, Jenny Simpson, Sara Hall, Renee Metivier-Baillie, Neely Spence, Katie Follett, Amy Mortimer, Monica Kinney, Annie Bersagel, Katie Flood, etc!

Along with the men's 1500, the race I am most excited for.  This race is UNBELIEVABLE.  I don't even know where to start.  

Hasay tries her hand in a 5k, for the first time against an elite field (She ran 16:16 in her 5k track debut last year in Oregon).  However, the rest of the field (unlike the 1500) is filled with women that have much experience over this distance.  Huddle, Slattery, Simpson, Bizzarri, etc. 

My take : Jennifer Simpson
Know for terrific closing ability over distance races, it will be interesting to see if Simpson can close out a superb field.  I like her consistency and her knack for winning races.  Sara Hall has been running well of late, and Hasay comes off an indoor championships meet for the ages.  Bizzarri, having just moved to Mammoth (and having run a 4:19 1500 in her opener a few weeks ago) should be stronger than ever.

(Also of note : DII battle - Should be interesting to see if Neely Spence (Shippensburg) can gain some revenge on Monica Kinney (Grand Valley) after Kinney dominated indoor nationals in the DMR, mile and 3k several weeks ago.

Men's 800
Big names : Tim Bayley, Fred Samoei, Casimir Loxsom, David Torrence, Leonel Manzano, Tetlo Emmen, Prince Mumba, Richard Jones

Not always a strong suit at Sac (or at least not as much as the distances), the 800 this year is loaded with talent.  None more than (budding rivals?) Leo Manzano and David Torrence.  Having battled last week in Austin (both running 1:47), they should be looking to run closer to 1:45 tomorrow.  Indoor NCAA champion Fred Samoei and Penn State up and comer Casimir Loxsom, along with Tim Bayley, add great depth to the field.

My take : Leonel Manzano
His closing 100 meters last week was incredible, blowing by 800-meter Worlds finalist, Jackson Kivuva, in the final 50 meters.  I love Torrence's continued development and improvement over 800 meters (1:45 last year), but I think last week showed us that Manzano has a slightly higher top-end speed to Torrence.  Samoei would be a darkhorse pick here.  With his 800 win indoors and huge kick to win the Texas Relays 800 last week (slow race or not), he's got a puncher's chance.

Men's 1500
Big names : Everyone in the field?! Tegenkamp, Solinsky, Russell Brown, Bumbalough, Heath, Batty, Patrick Casey, German Fernandez, Abdi Hassan, Diego Estrada, and on and on ...

As stated above, a few of these runners are simply tuning up.  But you have to think Solinsky and Teg are still two of the favorites.  The rest of field, for the most part, are purebred milers.  This race is so interesting on several levels.  Miles just became a household name after he drove the rest of the country batty at NC's (I had to go there...).  Former Stanford teammates Russell Brown and Garrett Heath due battle now as competitors.  Fernandez looking to bounce back from a subpar outing last week at Texas Relays (quadruple-knot those spikes!).

My take : Chris Solinsky
I know, I know, I know ... he is a 5k guy (or is he a 10k guy now?).  But that 10k last year was the last time I bet against him.  You need plenty of speed to run sub-13 over 5k, anyhow ... and he closed in like 11-high to 12-low in that 26:59 10k.  It's a little different trying to kick off of mile-pace, however, so it should be interesting.  Batty has proven to have a knack of late for doing whatever it takes to win, and he did prove me right indoors for picking him to win Nationals.  But I went to Colorado State, and I can't be picking BYU guys too often.

(Vote here for who you think will win this race)

Men's 5k
(Big names : Scott Bauhs, Jorge Torres, Scott Overall, Thomas Lancashire, Aaron Braun, Maverick Darling, Justin Tyner, Dorian Ulrey, Bolota Asmerom)

Maybe not quite the lure that the 1500 has, but there is A LOT of talent here.  Justin Tyner ran 3:42 last week at Arizona State, beating a pretty good field.  Torres is back in a 5k for the first time in awhile.  English country-mates Overall and Lancashire try to rep their homeland. Bauhs and Braun repping DII.  Should be fun.

My take : Dorian Ulrey
After the meet he had at Texas Relays last weekend, I like his chance over this longer distance.  He proved that he should be able to close on anyone over 5k (he split a 1:46-1:47 in Austin.  He also owns a 3:35 1500 pr).  I like the thought of him hanging around all race and waiting for the last lap to come around.  At that point, if he is right there, it's probably game over.

(Braun has proven that he will keep the pace honest, as he isn't afraid to push the pace.  He should be somewhere in the 13:20-13:26 range, judging from his continued progression and recent success, so don't be surprised to see him win it.)