Division 3 2011 Outdoor Nationals Women's Preview

Division 3 2011 Outdoor Nationals Women's Preview

May 23, 2011 by Scott Rodilitz
Division 3 2011 Outdoor Nationals Women's Preview

Check out the meet coverage page here for daily recaps, assorted post-race interviews and race videos, and any other information you could need.

The women’s meet also promises non-stop excitement and intrigue, so I’ll do my best to detail and predict the distance races. Due to the depth of this year’s fields, I tried to limit my commentary to those individuals that I considered to be major contenders. That being said, I’m sure there are plenty of athletes that are hoping to win that I have left unmentioned. If you would rather look at the full entry lists, you can just click here.

Also, if you’re looking for the men’s preview, click here, and if you are looking for this past weekend’s recap, click here.

10k
Finals: 9:20 PM
The big story this year in the distance races is the absence of Chicago’s Liz Lawton, defending outdoor 5k and 10k champion, who has not raced since the 5k at indoor nationals. Further, preseason favorite Wendy Pavlus has been missing in action for over a month due to illness, so she is a huge question mark. If she’s healthy, I can’t see her losing—she dominated cross country and indoor track the past two years, and the only thing missing from her illustrious trophy cabinet is an outdoor title (she was abroad during nationals last year). Plus, she ran decently fast at Penn Relays and is within a few seconds of the top seed, Jennifer Gossels of Williams. However, if Pavlus isn’t completely healthy, we could see a repeat of the New England D3 Championships, where Gossels, teammate Annie Dear, and MIT’s Anna Holt-Gosselin all battled to the finish, with Holt-Gosselin and Dear finishing second and third, respectively. That being said, none of those three girls has run since that weekend, so it will be interesting to see who shows up fresh and who shows up stale or injured. Also among the top seeds is Jennifer Tave of Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, though since running her early season auto qualifier, she has not looked the same. Other auto-qualifiers Simone Childs-Walker of Carleton, Joanna Johnson of Oberlin, and Amanda Laesch of North Central figure to be in that final pack, as well, with Laesch being the favorite of this bunch, in my opinion, due to her recent displays of 1500 and 5k prowess. Indoor 5k runner-up Christina Valerio also has looked very solid in recent weeks and beat some good fields at the Centennial Conference meet in both the 5k and 10k.
Predictions: Pavlus (if she’s healthy), Gossels,  Laesch, Valerio (if Pavlus isn’t)

Steeple
Finals: Friday 9:00 PM
Even if Pavlus is completely healthy, I don’t see her winning this one—not with one day of rest and the likes of Willamette’s Kimber Mattox and Baldwin-Wallace’s Kim Chinn to contend with. Mattox has the top seed and the fastest 1500 time of the field, but Chinn has the experience factor after being the runner-up at nationals last year, defeating Mattox in the process. Following behind that big three are Geneseo teammates Marisa Liberati and Alyssa Smith who both were in fine form this past weekend as they hit provisional qualifiers in the 1500 and 800, respectively. Calvin’s Gretchen Braymer, Cal Luthren’s Toccoa Kahovec, Eau Claire’s Ashlyn Mauer, and Wellesley’s Leah Clement all look to factor into the top three as well, and strong cases can be made for any of them. I predict to see a tough battle for the top two spots emerge between Chinn and Mattox while a large and highly qualified pack fights for third.
Predictions: Mattox, Chinn, Liberati

1500
Prelims: Thursday 7:00 PM
Finals: Saturday 1:40 PM
This race is full of contenders, with top seed Christy Cazzola of Oshkosh leading the way. Surprisingly, Cazzola has elected not to double in the 800 and instead is running on her team’s 4x400, meaning she should be very fresh for the 1500 final. She certainly has done everything she can to make herself the favorite, including running an open 57.50, so I wouldn’t want to see her anywhere near my shoulder on the last lap if I had plans of winning. That being said, we can’t count out indoor mile champion Randelle Boots of Wellesley, who dominated in their last matchup (at indoor nationals) with a devastating last quarter. Boots comes in as the second seed and has been dealing with some injury trouble, though she looks to have shaken it this past weekend with another top-notch 1500 performance (4:25.90). Margo Cramer also has to be considered among the favorites, as in her most recent race she defeated Boots and indoor third-placer Amy Knoblock of Keene State. Speaking of Knobock, she recently won a loaded 1500 over nine other national competitors in the field including mile runner-up Grayce Selig, so she, too, cannot be counted out. Nor can Selig, though, as she proved indoors that she can step up when it counts. Liz Phillips of Wash U and Claire Roberts of Stevens Point also could contend for the win, though Phillips is the favorite between the two as she was the winner in their qualifying race. Phillips will also have revenge on her mind after coming up just short against Cramer in the DMR at indoor nationals. Sheena Crawley of Franklin and Marshall is, in my mind, the only other threat for the title, as she has run essentially as fast as the other major players and has a solid 800 pedigree to go with it. That being said, I picked against Boots indoors and will not make the same mistake here. However, if you couldn’t tell from the long list of contenders, I think it would be a good idea to bet the field.
Predictions: Boots, Cramer, Cazzola

800
Prelims: Friday 8:15 PM
Finals: Saturday 3:30 PM
With Cazzola choosing to focus on the 1500, the way has been paved for indoor champ Keelie Final to run away with the title, and I see no reason to doubt that she will do just that. Carmen Graves of Roanoke comes in as the only other auto qualifier, but I am unconvinced that she can replicate that performance. Meanwhile, third seed and indoor runner-up Ann Tank of Platteville blistered a 56.88 open 400 this past weekend, so I would consider her the only possible challenger to Finnel. Veterans Emily Schudrowitz of St. Norbert and Meryl Wimberly of TCNJ will also factor into the title hunt, as Schudrowitz won 2010 indoors and Wimberly was third this year indoors. Further, both were All-Americans last outdoor season. However, the top returner from last year, Lizzy Danhakl of Williams, is also in the field, though she id seeded only fifteenth, so it will be interesting see if she can surprise some of the favorites. Liz Phillips of Wash U will be doubling back from the 1500 so I expect her to be a bit tired, but Kaitlyn Saldanha of Middlebury will certainly be a threat as she has been running very well as of late and has some skill at the 400 meter hurdles to go along with her 800 meter prowess. As is always the case in the unpredictable half mile, there are many others who could sneak into finals, and if they have a good day, who knows what could happen. Among the lower seeds, I would look out for Tara McCoy of Macalaster, who is undefeated against D3 competition on the year and looks poised for a breakout race or two.
Predictions: Finnel, Tank, Saldanha

5k
Final: Saturday 4:40 PM
As is the case on the men’s side, this race is incredibly hard to predict. Since it is the last event, many of the favorites, including top seed Annie Dear of Williams, will be doubling back. Dear, teammate Jennifer Gossels, and fourth seed Anna Holt-Gosselin of MIT all will have run the 10k on Thursday, so how they do in the 10k will be a good predictor of how they will do in the 5k. That being said, if I have to choose between the three of them before watching the 10k, I would go with Gossels, as she has shown that she can run a solid 5k after a good 10k, while we have yet to see similar efforts from the other two. Two other women doubling back from the 10k that could threaten for the win are Amanda Laesch of North Central and Simone Childs-Walker of Carleton. Both showed their ability to handle tough racing schedules at their conference championship meets, and I can’t foresee a scenario where they aren’t in the final pack. In fact, Childs-Walker has a third place medal from every national track meet since her freshman indoor season in 2009, so I expect her to at least match her previous success. Second seed Annie Lydens of Pomona-Pitzer will be one of the few fresh competitors, and she has certainly shown some good stuff in recent weeks, so I expect her to be contesting for the win in the final few laps, as well. Two other sub-17 women in the field, Heather Waterman of Franklin and Claire Roberts of Stevens Point, both impressed this past weekend and clearly are in fine form, though I am unconvinced that they can replicate those same performances. Waterman ran over thirty seconds slower the previous week and Roberts will be doubling back from the 1500, so I expect her to be a bit worn out.
Predictions: Gossels, Lydens, Childs-Walker

Team Title
After winning the indoor meet by a few points, Oshkosh looks to have this one locked up much more comfortably. Also, I can’t fathom that they won’t score huge points in the hammer, where they have six girls competing (and five of the top twelve seeds). However, I won’t make the mistake of counting out indoor runners-up Wartburg, who as of right now look to be a solid pick for finishing second again. Battling it out for third will likely be Williams and MIT, and I can imagine a lot will come down the 5k, where those two squads have three of the top four seeds. I’ll give MIT the nod as they were third indoors and they defeated Williams at their regional meet. It will also be interesting to see how Methodist does with stars Ashlynn Chavis and Ruby Blackwell, though I don’t think they have the depth to contest for the top few spots.
Predictions: Oshokosh, Wartburg, MIT