Cross Country Season on Flotrack 2013Nov 8, 2013 by Isaac Wood
Flotrack XC Rankings Men's NCAA Top Teams 10 - 1 (Week 5)
Flotrack XC Rankings Men's NCAA Top Teams 10 - 1 (Week 5)
Rankings guru Isaac Wood returns with his Flotrack NCAA XC Rankings. Though there were some major shifts in the poll, the picture for the NCAA XC Championship is starting to become a bit more clear. Below, Wood has listed the teams who will be making the NCAA meet, where they will finish in Terre Haute, and how many points they'll score. For the sake of brevity, we've broken up the countdown into three parts. Below are the men's teams from 10 to 1.
Click here to view 31 - 21.
Click here to view 20 - 11
10 - Arkansas 364
Kemoy Campbell is such a baller. Campbell won the SEC meet by :42 seconds, his teammate Stanley Kebenei followed up to finish second, and Solomon Haile for rounded out the sweep for the Razorbacks. Arkansas' 1-2-3 are legit and are the sole reason the Hogs have a shot at placing top-10 at NCAAs.
Campbell has a very good chance of finishing either 2nd or 3rd depending on his battle with Anthony Rotich at NCAAs. Gabe Gonzales has been a nice no. 4 and with Cale Wallace bringing up the fifth spot, Arkansas has some solid guys in the mix there. If Patrick Rono could figure out cross, they would be even better, which is why there are still a lot of question marks surrounding Arkansas. Good thing they won't have stress anything coming out of the South-Central Region. They will chill their way through that meet in to Terre Haute.
9 - New Mexico 350
I'm sure no one outside of Colorado Springs would have bet money on Luke Caldwell losing to Isaiah Bragg at MWCs this past weekend. Good news is that New Mexico put together a good race and Caldwell now has a little more motivation for the next two races.
The Lobos rolled through the Mountain West competition beating a good Colorado State squad and an up-and-coming Air Force (and Boise State, too). Adam Bitchell and Pat Zacharias are continuing their steady ways as they finished 3rd and 4th this weekend, respectively. Sean Stam had his best race he's had since 2012 Wisconsin and if he can keep progressing, he makes a nice no. 4 for the Lobos.
Although the Mountain Region might be the toughest region in the NCAA, New Mexico will be fine on points and should be one of the first teams to gain an at-large bid to the Big Dance.
8 - Portland 284
The Pilots had a solid showing at the West Coast Conference champs this weekend going 3-4 up front with Scott Fauble and William Kincaid--both of which are looking at All-American honors at NCAAs on a normal day (Portland finished 2nd behind BYU). The gap for Portland begins with David Perry, who is as quality as the latter two athletes, just struggling hanging with them as of late. If Perry can close the gap to Fauble and Kincaid, that's a good 1-2-3.
Prep phenom Danny Martinez is starting to pan out for Portland as he was the no. 4 for the Pilots, placing 14th. Oklahoma transfer Ryan Poland was was 89th at NCAAs in 2012 and should run that much better in Terre Haute this year. Coach Rob Conner always gets it done to make the Big Dance and Portland is once again a very quality top-10 program.
7 - Stanford 240
Let's play the "What If" game with Stanford. If Sean McGorty finishes Pac-12s at around the same way he did Pre-Nats, that would mean he'd probably beat everyone but Edward Cheserek of Oregon. That would mean Stanford could take away their no. 5 man's 34th place points and instead they score 50 points and Oregon 55 (Stanford was 3rd as a team behind Colorado and Oregon).
Jim Rosa is running as well as he ever has and Mike Atchoo has become a cross country runner this year. Erik Olson is consistent and Tyler Stutzman has improved each race. Stanford should be able to overcome their usual Nationals disaster, especially now that Coach Chris Miltenberg has had a chance to work with these guys for a couple years now. This could be Stanford's year.
Rosa was "pissed" after Pre-Nats, but not after finishing second at Pac-12s
6 - Iona 236
Iona has four very talented athletes. Kieran Clements, Daniel Clorley, Matt Gillespie, and Jake Byrne are all studs and all finished right together to help sweep the mediocre MAAC championships. Having placed nearly three athletes in the top-20 and five in the top-40 at Pre-Nationals, Iona is ready to run at the next level and is a team that could creep into the podium if all things are clicking in Terre Haute.
After their lackluster performance last year in Louisville, there may not be another team in the NCAA that's more motivated to shock the world at Nationals than Iona.
5 - BYU 223
The Cougars, more like Coach Ed Eyestone, just keep spitting out talented athletes year in and year out. From Miles Batty to Rex Shields, from Jared Ward to Tylor Thatcher, the next big thing out of Provo is Jason Witt. He has been on a tear this season making up for his second to last finish at NCAAs last year in Louisville (he had strep throat). Witt had an incredible kick to win the West Coast Conference individual honors and helped lead BYU to a 30-48 win over Portland. Before his conference win last weekend, Witt was 7th at Griak, 8th at Wisco.
As Thatcher will bounce back from a sub-par day in Malibu (home of WCC meet), BYU is so very deep. Their no. 9 man right now is Curtis Carr who was 4th this spring outdoors at NCAAs in the 3k Steeple. No. 7 man Taylor Farnsworth has run 8:09 and 29:33, too. This is a squad that is just waiting for one of the current top four teams in the country to slip up.
4 - NAU 179
After scoring 25 points at the Big Sky meet without Futsum Zeinasellassie, NAU is proving their worth race after race. The difference between the top-4 teams in the country is so close that it's hard to put NAU at 4th because they could just as easily knock off OSU for the National Crown.
Matt McElroy took home the individual honors this weekend and Brian Shrader rolled in right with him. Nathan Weitz is a very good no. 4 and was third at Big Sky.
In order to beat any of the teams above though, Josh Hardin or Caleb Hoover are going to have to step up to get the job done. Both of them are capable, so it's only a matter of them actually performing on the day. Coach Eric Heins is doing some outstanding work out in Flagstaff. When the Lumberjacks get Futsum, McElroy, Shrader, and Weitz all in at the same time that's a very good 1-4. Next up: The BRUTAL Mountain Regional
3 - Oregon 174
The Ducks are certainly getting a very nice return on their investment from Edward Cheserek as he has been outstanding all season long. Cheserek's worst finish was his 4th place finish at Pre-Nats behind some pretty darn good athletes (Kithuka, Rotich, O'Hare). I wouldn't be surprised to see Cheserek finish at least top-10 if not better at NCAAs.
Parker Stinson has done a very good job with his progression this year and has improved steadily throughout the season. He should be ready to improve on what happened at NCAAs in 2012, this season and is a shoo-in All-American. Cheserek and Stinson led the Ducks to a second place team finish at Pac-12s behind Colorado on their home course.
Mac Fleet finishing 10th at Pac-12s is actually impressive considering the altitude difference and the fact that he is a middle-distance guy. If his base is as good as it appears, he should be fine making the jump to 10k at regionals.
Another athlete that is progressing well is Tanguy Pepiot, who is only going to get better and will be scary the next two races. With Jake Leingang acting as a steady 3-4 man, the Ducks are loaded and ready to do damage in Terre Haute. Up next: West Regional
2 - Colorado 160
At altitude on their home course, Colorado looked almost too good this weekend winning the Pac-12 title for thesecond third straight year. The Buffs have a bunch of very solid interchangeable parts as Blake Theroux, who was their no. 3 at Pre-Nats, was their no. 1 at Pac-12s finishing 3rd.
Theroux is fired up.
Connor Winter and Ben Saarel filed in right behind Theroux. Saarel is the real deal and will be fine making the jump up to 10k the next couple of weeks. With five athletes in the top 10 in one of the best, if not the best conference in the country, Colorado is Oklahoma State's worst nightmare.
Morgan Pearson will improve upon his 18th place finish and makes the Buffs that much better at Regionals and Nats. Also, if Jake Hurysz can pull off a miracle and be healthy enough to help Colorado, watch out!
1 - OK State 117
It seems as if the Cowboys have a similar team as they did in 2010 when they went 5-6-7 with Girma Mecheso, German Fernandez, and Colby Lowe. Similarly, Tom Farrell, Shadrack Kipchirchir, and Kirubel Erassa are definitely capable of something similar.
At no. 4 and no. 5 things, are not nearly as set in stone as we thought they could be as Joseph Manilafasha has not had the year that we expected from him. If he can start running at the level he is capable of (he was 66th at Pre-Nats and 40th at Big 12s compared to 16th at Big 12s in '12), the Cowboys should be fine and cruise through the Regional and be fresh for NCAAs. Craig Nowak, Brian Gohlke, and Shane Moskowitz (note: we think Moskowitz is the most important factor here) all have the ability of a a top-50 finish at NCAAs and therefore the 'Pokes are still the best team in the country. Next up: Midwest Regional
Click here to view 31 - 21.
Click here to view 20 - 11
10 - Arkansas 364
Kemoy Campbell is such a baller. Campbell won the SEC meet by :42 seconds, his teammate Stanley Kebenei followed up to finish second, and Solomon Haile for rounded out the sweep for the Razorbacks. Arkansas' 1-2-3 are legit and are the sole reason the Hogs have a shot at placing top-10 at NCAAs.
Campbell has a very good chance of finishing either 2nd or 3rd depending on his battle with Anthony Rotich at NCAAs. Gabe Gonzales has been a nice no. 4 and with Cale Wallace bringing up the fifth spot, Arkansas has some solid guys in the mix there. If Patrick Rono could figure out cross, they would be even better, which is why there are still a lot of question marks surrounding Arkansas. Good thing they won't have stress anything coming out of the South-Central Region. They will chill their way through that meet in to Terre Haute.
9 - New Mexico 350
I'm sure no one outside of Colorado Springs would have bet money on Luke Caldwell losing to Isaiah Bragg at MWCs this past weekend. Good news is that New Mexico put together a good race and Caldwell now has a little more motivation for the next two races.
The Lobos rolled through the Mountain West competition beating a good Colorado State squad and an up-and-coming Air Force (and Boise State, too). Adam Bitchell and Pat Zacharias are continuing their steady ways as they finished 3rd and 4th this weekend, respectively. Sean Stam had his best race he's had since 2012 Wisconsin and if he can keep progressing, he makes a nice no. 4 for the Lobos.
Although the Mountain Region might be the toughest region in the NCAA, New Mexico will be fine on points and should be one of the first teams to gain an at-large bid to the Big Dance.
8 - Portland 284
The Pilots had a solid showing at the West Coast Conference champs this weekend going 3-4 up front with Scott Fauble and William Kincaid--both of which are looking at All-American honors at NCAAs on a normal day (Portland finished 2nd behind BYU). The gap for Portland begins with David Perry, who is as quality as the latter two athletes, just struggling hanging with them as of late. If Perry can close the gap to Fauble and Kincaid, that's a good 1-2-3.
Prep phenom Danny Martinez is starting to pan out for Portland as he was the no. 4 for the Pilots, placing 14th. Oklahoma transfer Ryan Poland was was 89th at NCAAs in 2012 and should run that much better in Terre Haute this year. Coach Rob Conner always gets it done to make the Big Dance and Portland is once again a very quality top-10 program.
7 - Stanford 240
Let's play the "What If" game with Stanford. If Sean McGorty finishes Pac-12s at around the same way he did Pre-Nats, that would mean he'd probably beat everyone but Edward Cheserek of Oregon. That would mean Stanford could take away their no. 5 man's 34th place points and instead they score 50 points and Oregon 55 (Stanford was 3rd as a team behind Colorado and Oregon).
Jim Rosa is running as well as he ever has and Mike Atchoo has become a cross country runner this year. Erik Olson is consistent and Tyler Stutzman has improved each race. Stanford should be able to overcome their usual Nationals disaster, especially now that Coach Chris Miltenberg has had a chance to work with these guys for a couple years now. This could be Stanford's year.
Rosa was "pissed" after Pre-Nats, but not after finishing second at Pac-12s
6 - Iona 236
Iona has four very talented athletes. Kieran Clements, Daniel Clorley, Matt Gillespie, and Jake Byrne are all studs and all finished right together to help sweep the mediocre MAAC championships. Having placed nearly three athletes in the top-20 and five in the top-40 at Pre-Nationals, Iona is ready to run at the next level and is a team that could creep into the podium if all things are clicking in Terre Haute.
After their lackluster performance last year in Louisville, there may not be another team in the NCAA that's more motivated to shock the world at Nationals than Iona.
5 - BYU 223
The Cougars, more like Coach Ed Eyestone, just keep spitting out talented athletes year in and year out. From Miles Batty to Rex Shields, from Jared Ward to Tylor Thatcher, the next big thing out of Provo is Jason Witt. He has been on a tear this season making up for his second to last finish at NCAAs last year in Louisville (he had strep throat). Witt had an incredible kick to win the West Coast Conference individual honors and helped lead BYU to a 30-48 win over Portland. Before his conference win last weekend, Witt was 7th at Griak, 8th at Wisco.
As Thatcher will bounce back from a sub-par day in Malibu (home of WCC meet), BYU is so very deep. Their no. 9 man right now is Curtis Carr who was 4th this spring outdoors at NCAAs in the 3k Steeple. No. 7 man Taylor Farnsworth has run 8:09 and 29:33, too. This is a squad that is just waiting for one of the current top four teams in the country to slip up.
4 - NAU 179
After scoring 25 points at the Big Sky meet without Futsum Zeinasellassie, NAU is proving their worth race after race. The difference between the top-4 teams in the country is so close that it's hard to put NAU at 4th because they could just as easily knock off OSU for the National Crown.
Matt McElroy took home the individual honors this weekend and Brian Shrader rolled in right with him. Nathan Weitz is a very good no. 4 and was third at Big Sky.
In order to beat any of the teams above though, Josh Hardin or Caleb Hoover are going to have to step up to get the job done. Both of them are capable, so it's only a matter of them actually performing on the day. Coach Eric Heins is doing some outstanding work out in Flagstaff. When the Lumberjacks get Futsum, McElroy, Shrader, and Weitz all in at the same time that's a very good 1-4. Next up: The BRUTAL Mountain Regional
3 - Oregon 174
The Ducks are certainly getting a very nice return on their investment from Edward Cheserek as he has been outstanding all season long. Cheserek's worst finish was his 4th place finish at Pre-Nats behind some pretty darn good athletes (Kithuka, Rotich, O'Hare). I wouldn't be surprised to see Cheserek finish at least top-10 if not better at NCAAs.
Parker Stinson has done a very good job with his progression this year and has improved steadily throughout the season. He should be ready to improve on what happened at NCAAs in 2012, this season and is a shoo-in All-American. Cheserek and Stinson led the Ducks to a second place team finish at Pac-12s behind Colorado on their home course.
Mac Fleet finishing 10th at Pac-12s is actually impressive considering the altitude difference and the fact that he is a middle-distance guy. If his base is as good as it appears, he should be fine making the jump to 10k at regionals.
Another athlete that is progressing well is Tanguy Pepiot, who is only going to get better and will be scary the next two races. With Jake Leingang acting as a steady 3-4 man, the Ducks are loaded and ready to do damage in Terre Haute. Up next: West Regional
2 - Colorado 160
At altitude on their home course, Colorado looked almost too good this weekend winning the Pac-12 title for the
Theroux is fired up.
Connor Winter and Ben Saarel filed in right behind Theroux. Saarel is the real deal and will be fine making the jump up to 10k the next couple of weeks. With five athletes in the top 10 in one of the best, if not the best conference in the country, Colorado is Oklahoma State's worst nightmare.
Morgan Pearson will improve upon his 18th place finish and makes the Buffs that much better at Regionals and Nats. Also, if Jake Hurysz can pull off a miracle and be healthy enough to help Colorado, watch out!
1 - OK State 117
It seems as if the Cowboys have a similar team as they did in 2010 when they went 5-6-7 with Girma Mecheso, German Fernandez, and Colby Lowe. Similarly, Tom Farrell, Shadrack Kipchirchir, and Kirubel Erassa are definitely capable of something similar.
At no. 4 and no. 5 things, are not nearly as set in stone as we thought they could be as Joseph Manilafasha has not had the year that we expected from him. If he can start running at the level he is capable of (he was 66th at Pre-Nats and 40th at Big 12s compared to 16th at Big 12s in '12), the Cowboys should be fine and cruise through the Regional and be fresh for NCAAs. Craig Nowak, Brian Gohlke, and Shane Moskowitz (note: we think Moskowitz is the most important factor here) all have the ability of a a top-50 finish at NCAAs and therefore the 'Pokes are still the best team in the country. Next up: Midwest Regional
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