Men’s Top 15 NCAA Championships Predictions

These are simply my own projections for the NCAA XC Championships this Saturday at Terre Haute, IN. As a big fan of the sport and current NCAA runner, I love to see people get interested in what is going on in our sport at the NCAA level. I wanted to breakdown some of the teams and highlight some key factors that will attribute to each their success this weekend. Obviously, I do not know the ins and outs of each team such as injuries or strategy, but it's fun to generate talk and excitement leading up to the competition. Enjoy and good luck to all the teams competing this weekend!

Men’s NCAA Predictions

1. Oklahoma State (Ranked #2)

After winning the Midwest Region with 45 points over Tulsa, and doing it with ease, this team has to be my favorite to win another national title. With a 7-second spread from 1-5, it appears Oklahoma State has the depth needed to win.

Head Coach Dave Smith was quoted saying, “They did a really good job of running a poised and controlled race... The guys in the front group ran a brilliant race. They never had to put the pedal to the metal. That’s a good situation.”

Running between 30:36-30:42 for 10k (including Kirubel Erassa looking a shoe five minutes into the race), I give Oklahoma State the nod to win NCAAs this weekend.

Runners:

Tom Farrell 		Regionals (7th, 30:36.3)	Big 12 (5th, 23:07)
Shadrack Kipchirchir	Regionals (8th, 30:36.6)	Big 12 (3rd, 22:54)
Craig Nowak		Regionals (9th, 30:36.9)	Big 12 (16th, 23:41)
Kirubel Erassa		Regionals (10th, 30:41.3)	Big 12 (2nd, 22:53)
Joseph Manilafasha	Regionals (11th, 30:42.5)	Big 12 (40th, 24:31)
Taylor Monaghan 	Regionals (24th, 31:03.7)	Big 12 (23rd, 23:49)
Shane Moskowitz		Regionals (40th, 31:18.0)	Big 12 (12th, 23:36)

Key Factors:  It's interesting that Oklahoma State left off Oregon transfer Chad Noelle at regionals. He's beaten teammate Taylor Monaghan each time they raced this year andJoseph Manilafasha a couple times as well. But Manilafasha also bounced back from a poor Big 12 performance and he has a history of coming through at nationals. He's a definitely a strong play. Oklahoma State has great depth and they have guys on their roster that could be racing in their top 7.


WOW with the Cowboys.

2. Colorado (Ranked #3)

Colorado is coming off a regional loss to Northern Arizona, but I think they will bounce back and once again run well at Terre Haute as they did at Pre-Nationals.

Editor's Note: This

@USTFCCCA They qualified for NCAAs which was the plan. #gobuffs

— Colorado Track & XC (@CUBuffsTrack) November 15, 2013

The Wetmore Factor will be in effect as Colorado looks to once again be a podium team and title contender. Coach Mark Wetmore and Billy Nelson have a great group of distance talent and a team that is extremely fit from training up at altitude in Boulder, CO. Colorado will be one of the teams pushing Oklahoma State.

Runners:

Pierce Murphy		Regionals (5th, 29:46)	Pac 12 (7th, 25:00)
Ben Saarel		Regionals (7th, 29:46)	Pac 12 (5th, 24:53)
Connor Winter		Regionals (15th, 29:51)	Pac 12 (4th, 24:49)
Morgan Pearson		Regionals (16th, 29:53)	Pac 12 (18th, 25:42)
Blake Theroux		Regionals (26th, 30:07)	Pac 12 (3rd, 24:47)
Ammar Moussa	 	Regionals (27th, 30:08)	Pac 12 (9th, 25:15)
Dillon Shije		Regionals (75th, 31:42)	Pac 12 (26th, 25:56)

Key Factors: An interesting aspect for Colorado is that they have a very interchangeable top 5. They have had great consistency from freshman star Ben Saarel as he seems to always be the #2 or #3 runner. I have them getting 2nd because they have had 4 different guys beat Saarel on different days. Morgan Pearson was Colorado’s number 1 at Pre-Nationals, Blake Theroux served as the #1 at Big 12, and then Pierce Murphy had a good showing at Regionals. If Colorado’s top 5 all have great days, then look out!

3. Stanford (Ranked #4)

This is my surprise podium and upset pick! Well not too much of a surprise as they moved up into the #4 ranking, but at one point this season they were ranked only #7 in their region! My upset is more in the team I have below predicted to place 4th.

The Stanford Cardinal came in very underrated and have been moving up the ladder all season, which culminated in a victory over Oregon at the West Regional race. I wanted to pick a dark horse and I think Coach Chris Miltenberg is going to provide that with his squad.

Runners:

Jim Rosa		Regionals (2nd, 29:43)	Pac 12 (2nd, 24:42)
Erik Olson		Regionals (3rd, 29:43)	Pac 12 (11th, 25:23)
Michael Atchoo		Regionals (6th, 29:54)	Pac 12 (12th, 25:30)
Sean McGorty		Regionals (12th, 29:57)	Pac 12 (DNF)
Garrett Sweatt		Regionals (31st, 30:35)	Pac 12 (34th, 26:09)
Tyler Stuzman	 	Regionals (48th, 30:49)	Pac 12 (20th, 25:50)
Marco Bertolotti	Regionals (79th, 31:34)	Pac 12 (64th, 27:22)

Key Factors:  Jim Rosa looks to be back in top form after two very solid races, where he only lost to Ed Cheserek. At Pre-Nationals, Rosa was in position to place top 5 with 1k to go and just faded down the long homestretch (he also was unhappy after the race as seen from FloTrack interview). But now it looks like he has put the missing pieces together and I think he will lead this squad to a strong finish.

Two other big factors will be freshman star Sean McGorty and Tyler Stuzman. McGorty was recovering from illness after a DNF at the Pac-12 Championships and quickly bounced back with a solid performance at Regionals. If the miler Stuzman can step up and provide as a solid 5th man and McGorty can produce like he did at Pre-Nationals, Palo Alto will be Upset City.

4. Northern Arizona (Ranked #1)

Yes, I have left the winner of the Mountain Region (over Colorado & BYU)  and current #1 off the podium. This is a team that I could have easily picked to win, but isn't too much room on the stage in Terre Haute. It would be an off-day for them to get 4th, but we shall see if they prove me wrong.

Runners:

Futsum Zienasellassie	Regionals (3rd, 29:45)	Big Sky (Did Not Run)
Matt McElroy		Regionals (9th, 29:48)	Big Sky (1st, 24:32)
Josh Hardin		Regionals (10th, 29:49)	Big Sky (7th, 24:58)
Brian Shrader		Regionals (11th, 29:49)	Big Sky (2nd, 24:32)
Nathan Weitz		Regionals (28th, 30:08)	Big Sky (3rd, 24:38)
Andy Trouard	 	Regionals (40th, 30:21)	Big Sky (Did Not Run)
Caleb Hoover		Regionals (60th, 31:00)	Big Sky (12th, 25:16)

Key Factors:  NAU’s top 5 is very good and they had a very solid top 4 at the regional meet to take the win. But sophomore Nathan Weitz needs to step up and be a strong factor for Northern Arizona in order for them to have a shot to get a top 3 spot or win.

NAU’s 6 and 7 runners are not as strong and if one of NAU’s top 5 guys have an off-day they may not be able to make up the loss. Either way, the strength of their top pack will make them a serious contender for the title.

5. Oregon (Ranked #5)

Oregon has had a consistent season and has been placing well at big meets. With their freshman Edward Cheserek leading the way and veterans Parker Stinson and Mac Fleetbehind, they are very good. They have had strong finishes at Pre-Nationals, Pac-12s and Regionals, but haven’t been able to pull out a victory yet. We will see what they can string together at the biggest stage.


Stinson, Fleet, and Pepiot after the West

Runners:

Edward Cheserek		Regionals (1st, 29:35)	Pac 12 (1st, 24:36)
Parker Stinson		Regionals (5th, 29:51)	Pac 12 (6th, 24:56)
Mac Fleet		Regionals (13th, 29:58)	Pac 12 (10th, 25:23)
Tanguy Pepiot		Regionals (18th, 30:12)	Pac 12 (21st, 25:52)
Jake Leingang		Regionals (27th, 30:30)	Pac 12 (16th, 25:37)
Matthew Melancon	Regionals (36th, 30:39)	Pac 12 (56th, 26:50)
Cole Watson		Regionals (42nd, 30:44)	Pac 12 (33rd, 26:08)

Key Factors: A theme for many of these tops teams seems to be freshman. Jake Leingangwas Oregon’s #5 runner at regionals and #4 at Pac 12. Now with one 10k under his belt, he could be key for helping Oregon push for a podium spot.

Interestingly, Oregon left out Daniel Winn who placed 27th at the Pac-12 championships.  Oregon has their strong front-runner in Cheserek while Stinson and miler Fleet have both had solid seasons. Fleet also will look to vastly improve on last year’s disappointing NCAA finish, where he finished 220th.

6. Syracuse (Ranked #7)

Syracuse has been looking for a top tier finish at the NCAA the last few years, but hasn’t gotten what they wanted. This is the year I think they step up and grab that finish with their depth and strong coaching from Chris Fox. After winning the ACC championships, Syracuse beat a strong Columbia squad at the Northeast Regional on the tough Van Cortlant Park course.

Editor's Note: For the "lack of love" we give to 'Cuse, this would be a huge performance. 

Runners:

Martin Hehir		Regionals (3rd, 30:18)	ACC (3rd, 24:05)
Robert Molke		Regionals (4th, 30:19)	ACC (8th, 24:16)
Griff Graves		Regionals (13th, 30:33)	ACC (15th, 24:25)
Ryan Urie		Regionals (16th, 30:35)	ACC (37th, 24:57
Reed Kamyszek		Regionals (21st, 30:42)	ACC (25th, 24:46)
Joe Whelan		Regionals (22nd, 30:43)	ACC (24th, 24:42)
Max Straneva		Regionals (28th, 30:53)	ACC (17th, 24:33)

Key Factors: Syracuse has a good tight top 7 and their depth could mean the difference at NCAAs. Syracuse is a team that could have a #6 or #7 runner displace other team’s top 5 runners. Leader, Martin Hehir needs to have a good race as he has all-American talent. I do want to give a shout out to my friend Max Straneva who I hope has a big day for the Orange.  I am slightly biased as I want local New York runners to do well!

Editor's Note #2: Again, a top 10 finish would be a good day. We think they'll finish somewhere around 12th, but more on that later.

7. Arkansas (Ranked #10)

Arkansas has a very strong top 5 (especially top 3), led by Kemoy Campbell who should be a top 5 finisher at the Big Dance.

This is a risky pick for me because of concerns with Arkansas’ depth. Patrick Rono ran at SECs but did not appear at the Regional meet. In order for Arkansas to take home a top 10 showing, they need their top 3 guys to place incredibly well.


How easy is too easy at the South Central Regional?

Runners:

Stanley Kebenei		Regionals (1st, 29:41)	SEC (2nd, 23:40)
Kemoy Campbell		Regionals (2nd, 29:41)	SEC (1st, 22:58)
Solomon Haile		Regionals (6th, 30:10)	SEC (3rd, 23:54)
Gabe Gonzales		Regionals (9th, 30:23)	SEC (10th, 24:13)
David Flynn		Regionals (16th, 30:49)	SEC (19th, 24:35)
Raymond Joseph		Regionals (45th, 31:51)	SEC (48th, 25:29)
Arch Roberson		Regionals (62nd, 32:19)	SEC (Did Not Run)

Key Factors: Campbell has been very good this year and could even contend for the individual title. Solomon Haile needs to also have a good race as he has not been super consistent this year. If their top 3 do what they are capable of and they have a good showing by their 4-5 guys, I think they could take a top 10 spot.

8. BYU (Ranked #8)

BYU definitely had a confusing finish at the regional meet as they finished 4th and lost to New Mexico (who is coming on very strongly). They also did not appear to have their best squad as Thomas Gruenewald, Steve Flint, and Spencer Gardner did not race. But thankfully they did get their #1 runner back after a long struggle with the NCAA and Jared Ward looked phenomenal off of marathon training.  I don’t think they will finish as high as originally thought but they are still dangerous.

Editor's Note: BYU will be on the podium.

Runners:

Jared Ward		Regionals (4th, 29:45)	WCC (Did Not Run)
Tylor Thatcher		Regionals (18th, 29:57)	WCC (6th, 23:30)
Jason Witt		Regionals (19th, 29:59)	WCC (1st, 23:14)
Taylor Farnsworth	Regionals (32nd, 30:15)	WCC (17th, 24:05 )
Curtis Carr		Regionals (36th, 30:18)	WCC (24th, 24:46)
Aaron Fletcher		Regionals (61st, 31:01)	WCC (20th,24:32)
Dylan Shawhan		Regionals (66th, 31:21)	WCC (Did Not Run)

Key Factors:  BYU will need their #4-5 runners to step up at NCCAs to secure a good finish.  It will be very fun to see where Ward ends up as we have only seen him run one race other than his 2:16 marathon). Jason Witt has some room to improve as well as he has lead the team most of the year and was their #3 runner at regionals. Coach Ed Eyestone knows how to get his guys ready.

9. Columbia (Ranked #12)

Columbia is an up and coming team this year as Coach Willy Wood continues to move the program forward. The Lions have been ranked in the top 10 in the country and have proven why they belong there. They have a solid 1-7 and could even push for a top 5 finish. 

Editor's Note: Whoa... top 5?

I think they will grab a top 10 finish based off of their consistency in doing well this season as a whole.

Runners:

Jake Sienko		Regionals (6th, 30:24)	IVY (17th, 24:07)
Daniel Everett		Regionals (9th, 30:28)	IVY (5th, 23:46)
Nico Composto		Regionals (10th, 30:28)	IVY (2nd, 23:44)
John Gregorek		Regionals (23rd, 30:45)	IVY (4th, 23:45)
Joe Kotran		Regionals (30th, 30:55)	IVY (29th, 24:31)
Ben Golestan		Regionals (37th, 31:07)	IVY (21st, 24:19)
Jack Boyle		Regionals (64th, 31:43)	IVY (20th, 24:14)

Key Factors: Another good freshman this year has been Jack Boyle, formally of Christian Brothers Academy. Columbia needs him to step up back into a top 5 position as he was their #5 guy at HEPS. Columbia is a strongly grouped team and they will need to move up together at NCAAs to secure a top 10 placing.

10. Eastern Kentucky (Ranked #16)

Eastern Kentucky comfortably won the Southeast Regional over Virginia, NC State, and North Carolina. Although it appears by their times at regionals they should be predicted to win, as someone who ran in that race I can say that the Panorama 10k cours was quite a bit short.  Nevertheless, EKU still looked very good and had a very strong 1-6.  Look out for them to be a surprise in the top 10.

Runners:

Soufiane Bouchikhi	Regionals (3rd, 28:43)	OVC (1st, 24:14)
Wade Meddles		Regionals (6th, 28:56)	OVC (4th, 24:37)
Thijs Nijhuis		Regionals (13th, 29:31)	OVC (Did Not Run)
Ambrose Maritim		Regionals (17th, 29:37)	OVC (2nd, 24:30)
Ben Toroitich		Regionals (19th, 29:40)	OVC (3rd, 24:35)
Ole Hesselbjerg		Regionals (21st, 29:43)	OVC (Did Not Run)
Erwin Leysen		Regionals (70th, 30:53)	OVC (6th, 24:56)

Key Factors:  Erwin Leysen was EKU’s #7 runner at their conference meet (although two EKU runner’s sat out), and he simply had an off day at the regional meet. EKU has a very strong pack with Soufiane Bouchikhi and Wade Meddles leading the way up front. Bouchikhi was only beat by Paul Chelimo (UNC-Greensboro) and Andrew Colley (NC State) at the Regional meet.

11. Iona (Ranked #15)

Iona has had years when they did surprisingly well and surprisingly bad. This year, I think they will have a good showing at the NCAA meet. They were not too far off Columbia and Syracuse at the Northeast meet and ran well on a tough course. They have had some other good meets this year and should be ready to have another good showing behind CoachRicardo Santos.

Runners:

Matt Gillespie		Regionals (2nd, 30:18)	MAAC (3rd, 25:28)
Daniel Clorley		Regionals (14th, 30:34)	MAAC (2nd, 25:28)
Jake Byrne		Regionals (19th, 30:39)	MAAC (4th, 25:28)
Kieran Clements		Regionals (20th, 30:40)	MAAC (1st, 25:27)
Christopher Stogsdill	Regionals (26th, 30:46)	MAAC (11th, 26:18)
Andrew Kowalsky	        Regionals (43rd, 31:18)	MAAC (6th, 25:37)
Ethan Heywood		Regionals (67th, 31:46)	MAAC (Did Not Run)

Key Factors:  Matt Gillespie looked good at the regional meet with a 2nd place finish behindMaksim Korolev. If he can have a great race and score some low points, then that could put them in a good position to place high and crack the top 10. Iona’s 1-5 had a good spread at regionals and will need that again at NCAAs.

12. Portland (Ranked #11)

The Pilots have beaten some very good teams this year including Wisconsin, New Mexico, Columbia, Syracuse, and Arkansas (at the Wisconsin Invitational). They have the potential to finish in the top 10 at the NCAA meet if all goes well.

Tension is mounting for the 4 mile TT. @Flotrack pic.twitter.com/oXfZkD1SHk

— Ryan Poland (@ryanpoland1) November 18, 2013

For some reason the Pilots #2 runner at WCC’s, William Kincaid, did not compete at the regional meet.  Portland has a great amount of depth and should be a tough team to beat.

Editor's Note: We have Portland finished between 6th and 9th. If they took 12th, we'd be stunned. A lot depends on Kincaid's health, though.

Runners:

Scott Fauble		Regionals (4th, 29:49)	WCC (3rd, 23:17)
William Kincaid         Regionals (Did Not Run) WCC (4th, 23:24)
David Perry		Regionals (15th, 29:59)	WCC (12th, 23:51)
Charlie McDonald	Regionals (16th, 30:04)	WCC (16th, 24:01)
Danny Martinez		Regionals (22nd, 30:22)	WCC (14th, 23:58)
Ryan Poland		Regionals (35th, 30:38)	WCC (15th, 24:01)
Cody Wells		Regionals (41st, 30:44)	WCC (22nd, 24:36)
Timo Goehler		Regionals (51st, 30:55)	WCC (Did Not Run)

Key Factors:  Portland has strong mid-pack runners who go unnoticed, but make this team quite good. If Charlie McDonald, Danny Martinez, and Ryan Poland can have solid races and push up closer to front-runner Scott Fauble, then this team will have a good result.

13. Michigan (Ranked #13)

Michigan came out on top in a very close regional race that saw a 5 point spread between the first 4 teams. Despite having only one runner in the top 10 at the Big Ten Championships, the Wolverines still won because of the depth of their team.


Michigan translates Big Ten disappointment to a regionals victory.

From 1-7, Michigan is strong and that has led them to be the championships from a tough Great Lakes region which features Wisconsin, Indiana, and Notre Dame. Watch out for this underrated team.

Runners:

Mason Ferlic		Regionals (3rd, 30:11)	Big 10 (9th, 24:36)
Mark Beams		Regionals (8th, 30:33) 	Big 10 (15th, 24:45)
Morsi Rayyan		Regionals (10th, 30:38)	Big 10 (11th, 24:38)
August Pappas		Regionals (23rd, 30:57)	Big 10 (19th, 24:50)
Cory Glines		Regionals (26th, 31:07)	Big 10 (32nd, 25:10)
Connor Mora		Regionals (31st, 31:22)	Big 10 (33rd, 25:10)
Nick Renberg		Regionals (39th, 31:27)	Big 10 (Did Not Run)

Key Factors: Michigan just needs to keep doing what they have been doing and that is having consistent solid races. They have been solid the last two races and need to carry that momentum into the NCAA championships. Low-stick, Mason Ferlic has been strong all year long and should be ready for a good race.

14. Tulsa (Ranked #9)

Tulsa is a dangerous team with front-runner and indoor collegiate mile record holder Chris O’Hare. They have a very solid top 5, but their 6-7 guys drop off a bit, so they will need to have a good performance by all of their top 5 runners to have a good day in Terre Haute. O’Hare placed 2nd at the Pre-National meet in Terre Haute, so he knows how to run the course well (plus he has deadly speed). Tulsa will do well if their middle group does well.

Runners:

Chris O’Hare		Regionals (1st, 30:27)	C-USA (2nd, 24:50)
Marc Scott		Regionals (5th, 30:34) 	C-USA (7th, 25:16)
Andrew Heyes		Regionals (6th, 30:35)	C-USA (4th, 24:55)
Danny Thater		Regionals (16th, 30:50)	C-USA (5th, 25:04)
Tim Rackers		Regionals (29th, 31:08)	C-USA (8th, 25:25)
Jake McDonnell		Regionals (110th, 32:33) C-USA (37th, 26:45)
Emmett Cookson		Regionals (113th, 32:35) C-USA (20th, 26:13)

Key Factors: O’Hare has been tough and consistent, but Tulsa has no margin for error. I love to see a middle-distance runner figuring out how to run cross country with the best in the country (something I have been trying to figure out ;) Marc Scott, Andrew Heyes, Danny Thater, and Tim Rackers all need to have not just okay days, but great days. Tulsa is a top 10 team with these 5 guys, but they have to put it together on the same day and over 10k.

15. New Mexico (Ranked #6)

New Mexico is coming off a big win at the regional meet over BYU, where they had an excellent spread of 21 seconds from 1-5. This is another team that has good depth and could really surprise some people and even finish higher than 15th. Their 6-7 guys are a little farther back from 4-5 though so they do not have margin for error up front.

Runners:

Luke Caldwell		Regionals (6th, 29:46)	MW (2nd, 24:12)
Adam Bitchell		Regionals (8th, 29:47) 	MW (3rd, 24:16)
Pat Zacharias		Regionals (17th, 29:54)	MW (4th, 24:26)
Sean Stam		Regionals (23rd, 30:04)	MW (8th, 24:35)
Elmar Engholm		Regionals (25th, 30:07)	MW (15th, 24:42)
Ross Matheson		Regionals (49th, 30:44)	MW (24th, 24:58)
Donovan Torres		Regionals (58th, 30:59)	MW (30th, 25:18)

Key Factors: Luke Caldwell has been very consistent this year, but he needs to pull his guys through to a good finish. If Elmar Engholm can bunch up closer to Pat Zacharias and Adam Bitchell, they will be fine. They are another solid underrated team.

I actually wrote the previous sentence before seeing their #6 ranking, so now it appears that they are not underrated. I do think though that a #6 rating is too high, but New Mexico could really surprise some people including myself.

Editor's Note: We agree, sort of. Our projections has New Mexico finishing between 9th and 12th.

Next three teams to finish:  Indiana (#20), Wisconsin (#17), Princeton (#18)