MEN'S DISTANCE PREVIEW:

Men’s 10,000 Meter Run:
John Crain is the second fastest all-time performer in DIII and is the current face of North Central’s storied program. He comes in as the top seed by nearly a full minute and won both the 5k and the 3k indoors. After a blistering kick left him just short of a victory last year, he has developed the speed to virtually guarantee victory even if the race turns tactical.

If someone does beat Crain, it will almost certainly be Chris Stadler of Haverford. The sixth seeded Stadler is the only competitor to have a faster 1500 time than Crain, and his 3:47 performance sent a clear message about the dangers of letting him stick around until the final mile. Though I do expect Crain to win, shaking Stadler will be no small task, as he is the top seed in the 5k.

Second seeded Andrew Padgett of Wash U is lightly raced, but he appears to be the only other competitor with the right blend of strength and speed to contend for the title. He is not quite as fast as Crain or Stadler over the 1500 or 5k distance, but he could be ready for a breakthrough.

The only returning All-American in the field aside from Crain is Tim Hartung of York, who was seventh last year. A two-time All-American cross country runner, Hartung was third in the indoor 5k and could be the one that pushes the pace in the early going.

Aside from Crain, the North Central contingent was disappointing indoors, with none of the other four Cardinal competitors scoring points. However, led by the resurgent veteran Roger Klein, North Central looks poised to rebound and score some major points in the 10k. The fourth seeded Klein and fifth seeded Troy Kelleher are two of the six competitors to have run under 30 minutes this year, and both could be capable of a top three finish.

Looking to keep the title in the WIAC are Ian LaMere of UW-Plattsburgh, Sean Kutz of UW-Oshkosh, and Patrick Jenkins of UW-Stout. Only a sophomore, the third seeded LaMere is already a two time indoor 5k All-American. Though he lacks the speed to contend for top honors, he should be solidly with the lead pack for most of the race. The unheralded Kutz was a surprise fourth place finisher indoors and comes in as the sixth and final entrant to break 30. Expect him to stick with the main pack and kick hard to pick up some big points for the Titans. Despite having the slowest qualifying time of this trio, Jenkins is the biggest threat for a top three finish. He defeated LaMere in the 10k at WIAC’s and then came back the next day to take down a fresh Kutz in the 5k.

Predictions: Crain, Stadler, Jenkins

Full Field Below:

1	John Crain	SR	North Central	28:52.7	Has run 14:06 and 3:50
2	Andrew Padgett	JR	Washington U	29:48.8	Has run 14:10
3	Ian LaMere	FR	Wis.-Platteville	29:51.7	Has run 14:25, sixth in the indoor 5k
4	Roger Klein	SR	North Central	29:55.5	Has run 14:41
5	Troy Kelleher	SO	North Central	29:55.6	Has run 14:14
6	Sean Kutz	SR	Wis.-Oshkosh	29:58.5	Has run 14:21
7	Chris Stadler	SR	Haverford	30:06.3	Has run 14:01 and 3:47
8	Patrick Jenkins	JR	Wis.-Stout	30:06.9	Fifth in the indoor 5k
9	Henry Mynatt	SR	Dickinson	30:11.1	Has run 14:36
10	Josh Dedering	SR	Wis.-La Crosse	30:12.7	Has run 14:31
11	Tim Hartung	SR	York (Pa.)	30:15.3	Has run 14:21
12	Colin Cotton	SO	Williams	30:15.6	Has run 14:22
13	Alex Ciesielski	SO	Wis.-La Crosse	30:17.4	Has run 14:32
14	Tyler Shipley	SO	Pacific (Ore.)	30:24.4	Has run 14:27
15	Tom Hopkins	SR	Cortland St.	30:24.5	Has run 14:42
16	Kevin Sparks	SR	Washington U	30:27.0	9th last year
17	Travis Morrison	JR	North Central	30:28.8	19th last year
18	Austin Bauer	SR	Luther	30:29.3	Has not broken 15 this outdoor season
19	Bijan Mazaheri	SO	Williams	30:31.5	Has run 14:29
20	Benjamin Girodias	JR	Pomona-Pitzer	30:31.6	Has run 14:44

 
Men’s 3000 Meter Steeplechase:
The most exciting race on the track last year looks like a runaway this year, as Michael LeDuc of Conn College has not lost a steeple since his sprawling victory over Jack Davies last year. The Penn Relays champ showed impressive strength with his 8:47 qualifying performance and flashed his speed with a dominant victory over three middle distance national qualifiers in the 1500 at the DIII New England championships. Though his victory in cross country was impressive, he has seemed slightly vulnerable since indoor nationals, where he finished seventh in the 5k and fourth in the 3k. It will be interesting to see whether the senior takes the race out hard, as he did last year, in his final collegiate race.

If LeDuc does falter, look for fellow senior Avi Bregman to capitalize. Haverford’s Bregman finished fourth last year and was ninth in the indoor 5k, just a few places behind LeDuc. His 8:51 clocking is second fastest in the division this year.

Success in the 5k often correlates with success in the steeple, and the fastest 5k runner in the field this outdoor season is Dawson Miller of UW-Whitewater. The third seeded Miller finished third last year, and he should be able to match or better that finish this time around.

The only other returning All-American in the field is Ben Wallis of Tufts. Though he should be expected to finish near the top of the field, he has already faced off against LeDuc and Bregman this year and was well beaten both times.

Bobby Over of Allegheny was a top ten finisher in cross, ahead of everyone in the steeple field except LeDuc, and is the only other legitimate threat to finish in the top three. He did not run indoors this year, but he was fourth in the indoor 5k in 2013 behind Stadler, Crain, and LeDuc. He dominated the field at the Bison Outdoor Classic and at the NCAC championships, running around 9:00 both times, but he struggled to a 9:09 tenth place finish at Drake Relays. He will need to be prepared to run in a competitive race if he has hopes of challenging the top seeds.

Contenders for All-American honors include the ninth, tenth, and eleventh finishers from last year: Jordan Carpenter of UW-Oshkosh, Chris Lee of Williams, and James Waterman of Wheaton (Ill.). All four will be hungry to score points after coming up just short last year.

Behind those established veterans comes a relatively shallow field—last year it took 9:09 to make the field, while this year 9:15 snuck in as the twentieth seed. Nearly half of the competitors raced one of the two final qualifying meets at North Central, some with more success than others. All things considered, the top half of the field should feel very confident that they can make the fourteen person final with only moderate effort.

Predictions: LeDuc, Miller, Over

Full Field Below:

1	Michael LeDuc	SR	Conn College	8:47.9	Defending champ ran 14:17 indoors
2	Avi Bregman	SR	Haverford	8:51.3	Has run 14:39, 4th last year
3	Dawson Miller	JR	Wis.-Whitewater	8:59.1	Has run 14:27, 3rd last year
4	Bobby Over	SR	Allegheny	9:00.1	Ran 14:25 indoors
5	Ben Wallis	SR	Tufts	9:01.5	7th last year
6	Andrew Rohlman	SR	Wis.-La Crosse	9:04.1	36th at XC nationals
7	Jordan Carpenter	JR	Wis.-Oshkosh	9:04.2	Won Dr. Keeler
8	James Waterman	SR	Wheaton (Ill.)	9:04.4	2nd at Dr. Keeler
9	Brock Taute	JR	Nebraska Wes	9:05.2	Beat a strong field at Gregory Final Qualifier
10	David Roza	JR	Haverford	9:05.5	Ran 14:40 doubling back from his 9:05
11	Steven Haagsma	JR	Calvin	9:05.5	18th last year
12	Chris Lee	SR	Williams	9:06.5	10th last year
13	Nick Boyce	JR	Wabash	9:06.8	2nd at Gregory
14	Keith Sands	SO	Augustana (Ill.)	9:08.3	8th at Dr. Keeler
15	Ryan Root	SR	North Central	9:10.7	3rd at Gregory, 6th at Dr. Keeler
16	Paul VanGrinsven	JR	Wis.-Stout	9:10.7	4th at Gregory
17	Adam Togami	SO	Wabash	9:11.0	5th at Dr. Keeler
18	Marcus Huderle	SR	Carleton	9:12.5	12th two years ago
19	Paul Lewis	SR	Albion	9:12.9	21st at Dr. Keeler
20	Kevin Hoose	JR	Bowdoin	9:15.0	Has run 6 steeples already

Men’s 5000 Meter Run:
The most unpredictable of the distance events, the 5k comes at the end of three grueling days and features only five fresh competitors in the field of twenty. John Crain of North Central is the defending indoor and outdoor champ, and assuming he takes care of business in the 10k, he should be considered the favorite. However, top seeded Chris Stadler of Haverford will have something to say about that. Even if Stadler cannot take down Crain in the 10k, he will have a better chance to do so in the shorter distance given his 1500 speed. If the race gets out slow in the Saturday afternoon heat, raw speed will be vital.

Should it come down to one final blistering lap, watch out for Matt Scott of UW-Eau Claire and David Stilin of UW-La Crosse. Scott is the top 1500 runner in the 5k field and a two-time All-American in the mile. He beat Stilin by four hundredths in the 1500 at WIAC’s and will be hoping to steal one from the more established 5k runners in the field. Stilin, though speedy, has already proven his capabilities over 5000 meters with his third place finish last year. He is the top returner other than Crain.

The top fresh seed is Dylan Karten of NYU, who ran 14:09 at Penn Relays. Karten struggled to sixteenth place last year at nationals, but after an All-American finish in cross country he seems ready to translate his quick qualifying time into competitive success.

Central College qualified two members of their national champion DMR squad into the 5k, Eli Horton and Austin O’Brien. In addition to their shared national title, both have been dangerous individually on the national stage: Horton finished third in the 3k while O’Brien took home the final All-American honors in the mile. They could look to push the pace early against the tired field, as both will be fresh and ready to go.

One of the competitors I am most excited to watch this weekend is Ryan Steinbock of Dickinson, the runner-up in the indoor 5k. Given his strength and the Red Devils’ strong steeplechase tradition, I thought he might scratch the 1500 and become a trendy upset pick in either the steeple or the 5k. Though his decision to double in the 1500 and 5k makes it unlikely that he will contend for the win here, I expect him to once again make moves over the final lap.

Most contenders for All-American honors will be on display Thursday, so keep an eye out for who looks best amongst perennial contenders Andrew Padgett, Troy Kelleher, Sean Kutz, Tim Hartung, Patrick Jenkins and Ian LeMere. In addition, if anyone from the back half of the field—like Williams teammates Colin Cotton and Bijan Mazaheri or Tyler Shipley of Pacific (Ore.)—steps up on Thursday, they should be considered threats here as well.

Predictions: Crain, Horton, Stadler

Full Field Below:

1	Chris Stadler	SR	Haverford	14:01.6	Running the 10k
2	John Crain	SR	North Central	14:05.1	Running the 10k
3	Dylan Karten	SR	NYU	14:09.2	Fresh
4	Andrew Padgett	JR	Washington U	14:10.8	Running the 10k
5	Troy Kelleher	SO	North Central	14:14.2	Running the 10k
6	Eli Horton	JR	Central College	14:15.7	Fresh
7	Ryan Steinbock	SR	Dickinson	14:18.0	Running the 1500
8	Matt Scott	SR	Wis.-Eau Claire	14:18.6	Running the 1500
9	David Stilin	SR	Wis.-La Crosse	14:20.9	Running the 1500
10	Sean Kutz	SR	Wis.-Oshkosh	14:21.3	Running the 10k
11	Tim Hartung	SR	York (Pa.)	14:21.6	Running the 10k
12	Colin Cotton	SO	Williams	14:22.5	Running the 10k
13	Patrick Jenkins	JR	Wis.-Stout	14:23.3	Running the 10k
14	Mitchell Klingler	SR	Albion	14:23.5	Fresh
15	Austin O'Brien	JR	Central College	14:24.9	Fresh
16	Colin Smith	JR	Occidental	14:25.2	Fresh
17	Ian LaMere	FR	Wis.-Platteville	14:25.4	Running the 10k
18	Tyler Shipley	SO	Pacific (Ore.)	14:27.3	Running the 10k
19	Dawson Miller	JR	Wis.-Whitewater	14:27.7	Running the Steeple
20	Bijan Mazaheri	SO	Williams	14:29.2	Running the 10k