By: Scott Rodilitz

Fourteen cross country All-Americans from 2013 as well as 266 other harriers will toe the line on Saturday, using Mason, OH as their proving ground this time around. Though many of the top individuals will also have team aspirations riding on their shoulders, a few will be looking to emulate Michael LeDuc of Connecticut College, who won the title last year as his school’s only representative.

 

Here is a ranked list of contenders to keep an eye out for:

 

15. Ryan Gehman of Eastern Mennonite

 

By winning the South Region, Gehman has earned the right to be on this list, but don’t expect too much from him at nationals. He finished eleventh in the relatively weak pre-nationals field and almost lost to North Central’s entire top seven. That said, he did beat Great Lakes regional champion and 2013 All-American Dan McGeary of Mt. Union at pre-nationals, so it seems like Gehman projects to finish in the 30-50 range.

 

14. Matt Giannino of RIT

 

The Tigers’ middle distance star finally found his cross country legs, but despite winning his region, he has yet to prove his mettle against a national caliber field. The Atlantic region seems uncharacteristically weak this year—although regional fifth-place finisher Nick Marcantonio of Cortland was 23^rd at nationals last year. The fast, flat course should favor Giannino, but he still will be hard-pressed to crack the top 20.

 

13. Charlie Marquardt of Haverford

 

Though traditionally a strong program in a strong region, Haverford is going through a rebuilding phase. The rest of the region, though deep, is lacking in established low sticks—no returners cracked the top 75 at nationals last year.  As a result, Marquardt’s regional championship is not as impressive as it might have otherwise been. He was only 83^rd last year, and his time at Paul Short compares unfavorably to other DIII contenders—he lost by nearly a minute to Colin Cotton of Williams College. Though he has improved, he hasn’t closed enough of that gap. Look for him to contend for one the mid-to-late All-American spots.

 

12. Dan McGeary of Mt. Union

 

The 2014 Great Lakes regional champ finished 29^th at nationals last year, securing himself All-American honors in a breakout race. Expect him to repeat that feat this year, though he hasn’t shown anything to indicate that he is capable of a top 10 performance.

 

11. Zorg Loustalet of Claremont-Mudd-Scripps

 

Loustalet was the fifth-fastest freshman at nationals in 2012 and the second-fastest sophomore in 2013. If he continues to perform near the top of his class, he is a lock to improve upon his 21^st place finish last year. He has yet to face truly national competition, but has performed well in two narrow losses to John Guzman of Occidental, who finished 6^th at nationals last year.

 

10. Jake Brown of St. Olaf

 

After a slow start to the season, the eighth-place finisher from nationals in 2013 has reestablished himself as a low stick for the Oles as they look to repeat as champs. He was beaten convincingly by teammates Grant Wintheiser and Jake Campbell as well as Central’s Eli Horton at the regional meet, so he doesn’t seem poised to finish any higher than fourth, but he seems like a safe bet for at least a top fifteen finish.

 

9. Josh Thorson of UW-Eau Claire

 

A transfer from the University of Minnesota, Thorson has vaulted the Blugolds into podium contention. He has run consistently well all season, ahead of teammate Ryan Mugan who was 13^th last year at nationals. His third place finish in the Midwest Region Championships paints him as a likely top ten finisher but not a true threat to come away with the individual title.

 

8. Alex Ciesielski  of UW-La Crosse

 

Last year, the Eagles stood on the podium because of the strength of their seven second 1 through 5 spread, which include Ciesielski as their all-important fifth man in 52^nd place.  This year, they have had to rely on the front-running of Ciesielski, who was the runner-up at the Midwest Region despite a fourth place finish at the WIAC meet. Time will tell whether he is trending in the right direction or if he wasted his best race of the season one week too early. Either way, expect him to finish in the back half of the top 10.

 

7. Colin Cotton of Williams College

 

Cotton finished a respectable 22^nd at nationals last year, but he has looked dominant recently, highlighted by a commanding victory at the New England Regional Championships. His 14^th place finish at Paul Short sounds much more impressive when you realize that the 13^th place finisher, Tabor Stevens of Adams State, is the defending DII steeplechase champion and has run 13:49 for 5k. Because Cotton hasn’t faced much out-of-region competition, it’s hard to tell how he will stack up against the best of the Midwest and Central regions. Based on last year’s results, he projects to finish in the back half of the top ten, but don’t be surprised if he is still in contention for the individual title in the final mile.

 

6. Troy Kelleher of North Central

 

Kelleher was only eleventh at the Midwest Region, but he occupies this spot as a placeholder for whoever ends up as North Central’s top finisher. For most of the season, it had been Kelleher, the last All-American in 2013 and the third place finisher in the 10k outdoors. However, in his last two meets he has lost to teammates Ryan Root, Aron Sebhat, and Travis Morrison. At least one of those Cardinals will crack the top ten; in fact, since 2008, the top red-and-white pinstripe has been sixth or higher.

 

5. Jake Campbell of St. Olaf

 

Though only 31^st last year, Campbell has run well behind teammate Grant Wintheiser and gave Eli Horton of Central College a tough race at the Central Regional Championships. He beat Thorson at the BluGold Invitational and Ciesielski at the Jim Drews Invitational, so he should be considered a top ten lock.

 

4. Eli Horton of Central College

 

Horton finished fourth last year at the national meet and is the second returner. However, Wintheiser has been beaten him thrice this year, including by 25 seconds at the regional meet, so Horton doesn’t have much of a chance to win. That said, he almost certainly saved an extra gear for this meet and is a near lock for a top 5 finish. Anchoring Central’s DMR to victory showed he has wheels, so expect him to prevail in a kick over nearly everyone in the field.

 

3. Drew Padgett of Wash U

 

The 25^th place finisher at nationals in 2013 has been a bit of a mystery this year. After an early season victory over Eli Horton, Padgett didn’t race for nearly two months. Most assumed he was injured and probably out for the rest of the season. However, he reemerged at the Midwest Regional Championships and didn’t miss a beat, winning the division’s deepest region by a comfortable margin. He beat Horton in the 5k at outdoor nationals, and, assuming any health problems are behind him, Padgett will contend for the individual title.

 

2. John Guzman of Occidental

 

The surprise sixth place finisher last year, Guzman has once again flown under the radar, largely because he has yet to face any of the other regions’ elite. He underwhelmed early in the season at the Stanford Invitational, his one opportunity to face top-notch competition, but he came on strong to win the SCIAC conference as well as the West Region. He could easily finish outside the top ten, but if anyone has a chance to pull off an upset, it’s Guzman.

 

1. Grant Wintheiser of St. Olaf

The third place national finisher in back-to-back years is undefeated against D3 competition on the year, and as a result should be considered the heavy favorite. He has handled Eli Horton, who may well be the second best runner in Division III, three times this season, and Wintheiser has bested everything the Midwest has thrown his way. Aside from teammate Paul Escher, he is the top returner from the outdoor 1500, so expect him to come away with the win even if it comes down to a kick. Injuries have been Wintheiser’s only issue in his stellar career, and he has seemed totally healthy all season. If he loses, it will be because one of John Guzman, Drew Padgett, or Colin Cotton is way better than anyone realized.