By: Scott Rodilitz

Just like last year, two teams have separated themselves from the rest of the field in recent weeks. Both St. Olaf and North Central won their regions in convincing fashion, and these two heavyweights will be looking for the knockout blow in Mason, OH this Saturday. Behind the two heavy favorites come a slew of podium hopefuls; in fact, there are so many teams in the mix that 250 points could still suffice for a top four finish. Let’s take a look at some of the likely contenders.

 

THE REGIONAL CHAMPS (who won’t be on the podium)

 

These teams won their regional meets, and as a result deserve to be mentioned. However, for a variety of reasons they all seem unlikely to make a big splash at the big dance.

 

Emory Eagles

Predicted Finish: 30

 

The Eagles won the perennially weak South Region, edging Bridgewater (Va.) by three points for the first auto bid. At the UAA meet a few weeks prior, they lost to NYU and U Chicago, who both finished well out of national qualifying spots at their respective regions. After starting the year ranked fourth in their region, Emory has done well to make it this far, but don’t expect them to crack the top 25 this weekend.

 

Claremont-Mudd-Scripps Stags

Predicted Finish: 18

 

It is always hard to tell how the West Region champs stack up to the rest of the DIII field since they rarely face out-of-region competition, but the Stags lost three of their top five after last year’s nineteenth place finish at nationals and haven’t done anything to suggest that they are a vastly different team this year. Junior Zorg Loustalet will certainly be a low stick, but their 49 second gap from regionals will balloon as Loustalet gets pulled to a much faster time. Their consistent but middling USTFCCCA ranking seems appropriate: expect them to finish in the 15 to 25 range as a team.

 

Carnegie Mellon

Predicted Finish: 12

 

Expect Carnegie to place well as a team, but they get stuck in this group because they were soundly beaten at the UAA conference meet by a Wash U team without Andrew Padgett. Even with him back in the mix, Wash U was only fourth in the Midwest Region, so it seems impossible that Carnegie Mellon could finish on the podium this weekend. To be fair, the Tartans’ pack showed some improvement last weekend as they ran away with the Mideast Region despite coming in as the fourth ranked team. The selection committee clearly thinks highly of the Mideast’s depth, as evidenced by their three at-large berths, but the Tartans simply don’t have the top-end firepower to finish any higher than seventh or eighth.  That said, expect them to come out swinging as they attempt to send Coach Dario Donatelli off in style after his twenty-eight years at the helm.

 

THE UNPREDICTABLE PACKS

 

These teams are all lacking an established frontrunner but have a strong group of five. With teams like this, a small underestimation of the strength of their pack makes a big difference, so even though these teams won’t be expected to podium, they could surprise.

 

Loras College

Predicted Finish: 11

 

Since losing to SUNY Geneseo at Pre-Nationals, Loras has looked much improved and has beaten Central College in back to back meets. Though they finished only 26^th at nationals last year, they brought back their entire top six and added freshman Timothy Sevcik into the mix. Losing handily to St. Olaf at the Central Region shows that they are a far cry from a title contender, but if senior Ty Wittman is an All-American and the rest of the pack stays within 45 seconds, as they have all year, then the Duhawks will crack the top 10.

 

Wabash
Predicted Finish: 9

 

The Great Lakes regional champions ran stellar times on the nationals course this past weekend. The course was short at pre-nationals but in theory, it was lengthened to a full 8k before the regional meet; regardless, in cross country it is wise not to read too much into times. Likewise, the Little Giants dominant victory over the rest of the Great Lakes region sheds little light on how well their tight pack will mix it up with the rest of the nation. Wabash will dream of emulating UW-La Crosse’s plan from last year, where they finished third without a single All-American. If they can keep their spread down toward 10 seconds and if pack leader Nick Boyce can finish in the top fifty, they just might do it. More realistically, though, expect Wabash to finish around 10^th.

 

St. Lawrence

Predicted Finish: 6

 

The Saints came into the season ranked 25^th after a disastrous 29^th place finish last November, but they quickly proved themselves and have continued to impress all year long, culminating with a resounding victory at the Atlantic Regional Championships. Their small spread will serve them well at this large of a meet, and sophomore Thomas Caulfield showed that he has embraced his role as frontrunner after a third place finish at the Atlantic Regional Championships. St. Lawrence took down New England power Williams to start the season, but the Ephs turned the tables at Paul Short. As a result, St. Lawrence looks like a safe bet for the back half of the top ten with the potential to sneak onto the podium.

 

THE NONSENSICAL NORTHEAST

 

Recently, the top New England teams have flip-flopped frequently over the course of the season, and 2014 proved to be no different. Recently, the region has had plenty of top ten teams but few podium finishes. Expect more of the same this time around.

 

Amherst College

Predicted Finish: 13

 

The Lord Jeffs secured an automatic bid for the first time since 2009 in a impressive performance at the regional meet, upsetting rival and host Williams College for the first time in five years. All of Amherst’s top five put together a great race on the same day, highlighted by super frosh Mohamed Hussein finishing in fourth. Though that could be a sign of even bigger things to come this weekend, don’t expect them to catch lightning in a bottle again this weekend. Other than their regional result, Amherst had done little to suggest that they were a national caliber team. That said, the only race that matters is the final one, and if they really did time their peak right, the Lord Jeffs could be the biggest surprise on Saturday.

 

Williams College

Predicted Finish: 10

 

After a fifth place finish last year, the Ephs have bounced around in the rankings from third to tenth, back to third, and now back to ninth. The rankings roller coaster has little to do with the stellar 1-2 punch of Colin Cotton and Bijan Mazaheri and much more to do with the inconsistencies behind them. If last weekend’s fourth place finish on their home course was simply a blip on the radar, their dominant NESCAC victory indicates that they will challenge for a podium spot. However, if they are trending in the wrong direction, the Ephs will be lucky to crack the top 10.

 

Colby College

Predicted Finish: 8

 

Though cross country is a team sport, Colby’s podium chances rest squarely on the shoulders of Ben Lester. The senior finished a disappointing 43^rd at the NESCAC meet, 76 seconds behind sophomore star David Chelimo. At the regional meet, Lester closed that gap to 26 seconds and the Mules won the first regional title in their program’s history. Their top four has been dependable all year, but without a low-scoring fifth runner, Colby is not a podium contender. As with Amherst and Williams, the question is whether the Mules are the team we saw most of the regular season or are they the team we saw last weekend. Colby has to hope it is the latter.

 

MIT

Predicted Finish: 7

 

Led by the emergence of Spencer Wenck, the fifth place finisher at Nike Cross Nationals back in 2010, the Engineers have showed great progress since a disappointing 24^th place finish in 2013. They knocked off Wash U and Wabash along with many other talented D3 teams at the AAE Invitational, and they held their own at the regional meet, losing by only one point to Amherst and by seven points to Colby. Though they haven’t shown the upside that Colby and Williams have displayed, they should safely crack the top ten this year. The fast course should favor their aggressive tactics, and though consistency issues have plagued the Engineers in the past, they put all seven of their runners in the top 40 of the deep New England region. MIT can weather a bad performance—or even two—better than nearly any other team in the nation.

 

THE MIDWEST IS BEST

 

Each year, the Midwest puts nearly all of its qualifying teams in the top ten and routinely occupies half (or even three-quarters) of the podium. This year is shaping up to be more of the same, although the selection committee surprisingly left out UW-Platteville despite their strong sixth-place showing at the regional meet.

 

UW-Eau Claire

Predicted Finish: 5

 

The BluGolds have been ranked to finish on the podium in every single poll this year, but frankly they are not built like a podium team. You have to go back all the way to the muddy national championship race in 2006 to find a podium team without a top three individual finisher and a gap as large as UW-Eau Claire’s. Minnesota transfer Josh Thorson has been impressive all year, but he does not appear poised for a top three individual finish. Therefore, Eau Claire has to hope for a good day from rotating fifth men Steven Schimmer, Erik Rosvold, or Matt Cooper. Unless one of those three steps up, the BluGolds will miss out on a podium finish despite an impressive season.

 

Wash U

Predicted Finish: 4

 

After losing Andrew Padgett for most of the year, this looked like a lost season for the Bears. However, his unbelievable return to the top at the Midwest Regional Championships puts Wash U back into the podium conversation. Still, to most observers, a top four finish seems unlikely given that they could barely even crack the top four of their region. Consider, though, that the Bears have had three consecutive top five national finishes. They have made a habit of showing up when it counts and this year looks like it will be no different. Their three through seven pack is quite strong—all of them finished before UW-Eau Claire’s fifth man at the regional meet—and that proximity indicates that they may have even held back a little.

 

UW-La Crosse

Predicted Finish: 3

 

Last year’s biggest surprise, the Eagles can no longer rely on an eleven second spread to catapult them onto the podium. Instead they have to hope that frontrunner Alex Ciesielski can score negligible points and then wait to see whether fifth man Alex Barbeln can cross the line soon enough to secure a second consecutive podium finish. The leading senior trio has been getting stronger as the season goes on, so expect them to come through once again on the biggest stage.

 

North Central

Predicted Finish: 2

 

It’s unfair to say the Cardinals looked vulnerable after thoroughly dismantling the country’s best region, but two straight weeks of regression by the dependable Troy Kelleher has got to be worrying. The return of Travis Morrison at regionals was reassuring, and his sixth place finish proved that he is doing just fine after skipping the conference meet. Veterans Ryan Root and Aron Sebhat have also displayed the ability to step up as top finishers for North Central, but depth has never been the issue for the Cardinals. They can easily survive two bad races and will probably still have five top-fifty finishers. Under no circumstances will they finish worse than second as a team, which will extend their streak of top two finishes to an incredible seven consecutive years. What the Cardinals lack is the front-end firepower to contend with St. Olaf’s devastating 1-2-3 punch. Expect another close race, but North Central projects to score about 90 points and is on the outside looking in right now.

 

THE FAVORITE

 

St. Olaf

Predicted Finish: 1

With individual favorite Grant Wintheiser joining Jake Campbell and Jake Brown as potential top ten finishers, the Oles are looking at fewer than 15 points from their first three contributors. Paul Escher and Phil Meyer don’t seem far behind, and even a pair of top fifty performances might do the trick. However, the Oles have no room for error. Their sixth man was nearly 45 seconds behind their fifth at the Central Regional Championships, so any slip up would prove costly against a deep and dangerous North Central team. After stepping up big when it mattered most last year, the Oles deserve to come in as the favorite, but they will have to get everything right again this year in order to repeat.