Winners, Losers From XC's First Weekend

Sep 27, 2015 by Lincoln Shryack

How did Grant Fisher fare in his collegiate debut?

Although several of the top ranked NCAA teams still have yet to debut in 2015, cross country’s first big weekend was all about making statements, some of them good and others, well, not so good.

Running well in September doesn’t guarantee success in November, and most coaches would agree that staying healthy at this point in the season is much more important than winning an early season invitational. However, it’s always fun to analyze who’s rising and falling heading into October, as the picture from here on out will gradually become less blurry. With a limited sample size from which to draw, here are FloTrack’s winners and losers from week one of NCAA cross country.

STOCK UP - Syracuse Men

The #3 ranked Syracuse Orange were expected to dominate the watered down Battle in Beantown, and they did just that on Friday in Boston, as ‘Cuse put five in the top ten, and more importantly, controlled the race throughout. Sophomore Justyn Knight has been on fire in 2015, and his victory at Franklin Park proved that his pre-season #6 individual ranking was justified despite finishing just 143rd at nationals in 2014.

Justyn Knight kicked away to victory on Friday at the Battle in Beantown over All-American Matt McClintock

Obviously, we can’t take too much from this meet as Oregon won in a similar fashion here last fall and only managed a sixth place finish at NCAAs, but head coach Chris Fox has to be pleased that his entire top five is running well, and of course, healthy. Fox acknowledged after the race that his team is better than they’ve ever been, which clearly comes with the expectation of a podium finish in November, something ‘Cuse hasn’t done since 1957.

Up next for Syracuse will be the deep Wisconsin Invite on October 16th, a race that the Orange dominated in 2014.

STOCK DOWN - Michigan State Women

We knew that the defending NCAA champs were likely to take a step back in 2015 after graduating All-Americans Leah O’Connor and Julia Otwell, but their distant second place finish to upstart Boise State on Saturday at Griak showed that they are in an even worse spot than we thought.

Make no mistake, the Spartans are hurting right now without All-American Lindsey Clark, who still has not raced in 2015 due to injury. Clark had a huge day in Terre Haute last year, finishing 11th, so her absence is partly to blame for State’s tough day yesterday in Minneapolis, but you can only judge who’s actually racing, and this team is currently a shell of their 2014 self. Compared to Boise’s ridiculous 37 point tally, 116 for Sparty is a big eyesore for the previously 5th ranked Spartans.

Rachele Schulist on the Spartans' 2nd place finish yesterday at Griak:

Fortunately, not all is lost in East Lansing. Consider: although Rachele Schulist was the pre-race favorite heading into Griak and seemingly disappointed by finishing 5th, her place yesterday was the exact same finish she had a year ago at this meet, and she went on to finish 4th at NCAAs two months later. She may have been well back of several girls we expected her to beat on Saturday, but that does not at all mean that she won’t be ready come November.

Additionally, the defending champs got a really nice race from junior Alexis Wiersma yesterday, who finished 8th in 2015 after a 22nd place showing here a year ago.

If Schulist runs like we expect her to by the time championship season rolls around, Clark gets healthy, and Wiersma can continue to progress like we think she will, the script could be flipped on the Spartans' season in 2015. However, as it stands, this team has a long way to go to make the podium for the second consecutive year.

STOCK UP - Boise State Women

What can we say?

The Boise State ladies put on a show yesterday at Griak, scoring a meager 37 points with three freshman, a sophomore, and a junior representing their top five. Not only did the Broncos prove that they’re better than their #16 ranking, their fearless front-running at Griak could be a preview of several years of NCAA dominance to come.

We figured 2014 NXN champion Allie Ostrander would have no trouble adjusting to collegiate competition during her freshman campaign, and she justified our assumptions by finishing 2nd at Griak to lead the Broncos. Her performance yesterday was particularly impressive considering that Ostrander had a bout of food poisoning in the days leading into the meet.

WATCH BOISE STATE DOMINATE GRIAK WITH 37 POINTS!

While Ostrander’s finish was more or less expected, even with a little sickness before the race, no one could have foreseen the Broncos dominating up front like they did with such a young team, crossing all five scorers before any other team had their 3rd. Annie Bothma, a frosh from South Africa who apparently races barefoot, was just a place behind Ostrander and appears to be the real deal after helping to push the pace for a majority of the 6K race.

Allie Ostrander discusses her runner-up finish, her team victory, and food poisioning:

Time will tell if yesterday’s race was just fool’s gold, or if the Broncos are in it for the long haul in 2015. Conventional wisdom tells us that their inexperience will eventually catch up with them down the road, but their age should not lessen expectations for this team to have their highest finish ever at NCAAs this year. Even after losing All-Americans Emma Bates and Marisa Howard from their 11th place team a year ago, the Broncos are poised to crack the top 10 in 2015 with their talented newcomers leading the charge.

STOCK DOWN - Boise State Men

Not everything is perfect in Bronco-land.

While we admittedly were a bit too high on the Boise State men when we ranked them pre-season #15, yesterday’s 6th place finish at Griak showed that this team has a long way to go before they’re ready to contend with the big boys of the NCAA. The Broncos are without top returner Andrew Rafla, who was 83rd at NCAAs as a freshman in 2014, and without their #1 they likely failed to pick up any crucial points that could’ve helped them down the road.

The bad news is that Rafla will reportedly miss the entire fall due to injury, which likely takes away any chance they had of reaching the Big Dance for the first time since 1996. On the flip side, sophomore Michael Vennard had a promising 3rd place finish yesterday that indicates he’s NCAA XC material, if only as an individual. Additionally, five-star recruit Elijah Armstrong had a quiet day yesterday (26:07, 55th), but he is recovering from an injury and was taking it easy at Griak because of that.

With Vennard as their #1 and with the expectation that Armstrong will keep improving, not all is lost without Rafla in 2015. This team is certainly not the 15th best in the nation right now, but they have that potential when all their pieces are at full strength.

STOCK UP - Grant Fisher and Stanford

One of the best high school distance runners in history made his collegiate debut yesterday at the Stanford Invitational, and for freshman Grant Fisher it was mission accomplished on multiple fronts.

First off, Fisher was runner-up to Cardinal All-American Sean McGorty in 23:33, which despite being more than 26 seconds behind his teammate, was a successful opener for the 2-time Foot Locker champion as he competed in his first ever 8K. Fisher didn’t over-exert himself by trying to keep up with the experienced McGorty (20th at NCAAs in 2014), but he wasn’t jogging either, and this quick race showed that he’s ready to contribute to #2 Stanford right away.

Grant Fisher discusses his runner-up finish at the Stanford Invite, and his redshirt status:

Secondly, Fisher and Stanford coach Chris Miltenberg were able to prolong the mystery of whether or not the talented freshman will redshirt in 2015, as the sub-4 miler was mum on his status in our post-race interview after competing unattached on Saturday.

In all likelihood the Grand Blanc (MI) product will don a Stanford jersey when the Cardinal toe the line next in Wisconsin, as this team with Fisher has the potential to be very special, but by running a smooth effort without any theatrics, Fisher remained under the radar which does the same for this Stanford team. It’s tough to limit the attention on an athlete of Fisher’s caliber, but a low-key home meet with no lofty expectations certainly accomplished that for Milt.

The decision to run Fisher this season likely became easier for Milt after Saturday, and similarly, the freshman should feel a lot less pressure when he finally does put on that cardinal red jersey very soon. Stanford needs him if they want a shot at beating Colorado in November, so don’t expect this redshirt business to last much longer.

STOCK UP - Michigan State Men

Most teams don’t win the Roy Griak Invitational without their #1 runner. Apparently, no one told the Michigan State men that, as they scored a big early season victory without All-American Caleb Rhynard toeing the line for the Spartans.

WATCH THE MICHIGAN STATE MEN WIN ROY GRIAK!

#29 Sparty wasn’t flashy on Saturday, they didn’t have anyone in the top five, but they were able to ride clutch performances from junior TJ Carey (25:07, 7th) and freshman Ryan Robinson (25:09, 8th) to a 74-point performance that was good enough to take down the defending Griak champions Southern Utah.

.@MSUTrackFieldXC takes the men's team title! #Griak2015 top 10 men's team finishers pic.twitter.com/IFR2DTsgVi
— FloTrack (@FloTrack) September 26, 2015

What’s more remarkable is that only one of Michigan State’s top five at Griak on Saturday scored at NCAAs last fall for the Spartans, junior Sherod Hardt, who was 13th at Griak. More important than the Kolas points that the team earned yesterday towards NCAA qualification was the confidence they likely gained from performing so well with a new roster and hardly anyone giving them a chance heading into the weekend.