Cross country is unpredictable. 

 

While that may read as another cliche that can be applied to every other sport, the fact is undeniable, particularly at the NCAA XC level. With so many teams with elite level talent facing each other all at once, cross country is its own brand of weird compared to most sports that simply feature a head-to-head matchup. So many variables go into putting five athletes across a finish line faster than another team’s five that don’t apply in other sports, and with such a limited sample size of contenders racing against each other before Nationals, it’s very hard to project where everyone will place when they all come together in November.

 

Luckily for us, there is the adidas Wisconsin Invitational. This meet annually features 65% of the year’s NCAA field, which makes this showdown in Madison the closest thing we have to a National Championship preview. While several top teams are competing at this weekend’s other big race, Pre-Nats, Wisco offers the deepest field of talent once again in 2015, headlined by eight top ten teams on the men’s side and six on the women’s. With the help of the Wisconsin Invite, the NCAA Championships are ever-so-slightly less daunting to predict.

Watch The 2015 adidas Wisconsin Invitational LIVE on FloTrack today at 11am CT!

Men’s 8K - #3 Syracuse Returns After Dominating In 2014

Of the eight top ten ranked teams that are in Madison tomorrow, none should more confident than the reigning Wisco champs, Syracuse. #2 Stanford will compete, but they won’t be anywhere close to full strength, as All-Americans Jim and Joe Rosa, as well as freshman Grant Fisher, will not race in Wisconsin. 

 

Syracuse dominated this meet in 2014 to the tune of just 85 points and an even more impressive 14-second spread, led by a 1-2 punch of Martin Hehir (7th) and Justyn Knight (14th). A stronger version of those two returns in 2015 hell-bent on not just a repeat of their victory here, but also on earning a podium finish at NCAAs, something ‘Cuse hasn’t done since 1957. Knight is the guy to watch on Friday, as his breakout track season this past spring (he ran 13:34 and finished 6th at NCAA outdoor as a frosh) coupled with his poor showing at NCAA XC in 2014 make him unique among cross country’s top guns. 

 

The sophomore Knight enters tomorrow’s race ranked #5 in the Saucony Flo50, which is particularly notable considering that he was 143rd at NCAAs last season. We spoke with him on Tuesday, where he revealed that he under-fueled before that race, causing him to perform well below his abilities and consequently, keeping Syracuse off the podium for another bitter year. Given Knight’s spotless record otherwise, an off day of 2014’s magnitude isn’t likely to reoccur in 2015, making the Orange incredibly dangerous. After Knight and Syracuse opened the fall with impressive victories at the Battle in Beantown, I had seen all the proof I needed to know that this team was ready to fix the ills of last season. All eyes are on Louisville, but expect plenty of theatrics in Madison.

Led by Martin Hehir and Justyn Knight, Syracuse dominated Wisco in 2014:

If there is one team that has the potential to take down ‘Cuse on Friday, it’s definitely the hometown Badgers. Mick Byrne’s fourth-ranked Wisconsin men are led by junior Malachy Schrobilgen, who was 10th at NCAAs last fall and just so happens to be the veteran on this youthful, but talented Badger squad. Friday will be Wisconsin’s first true race of 2015, as Byrne has had his team take it easy in their first two outings to practice the pack-running they hope to utilize at NCAAs. Wisco’s decision to jog at Greater Louisville two weeks ago turned into a bit of a controversy, but that matters little now for the Badgers as they prepare to make a run at a podium finish in 2015. This team was third here a year ago despite competing with four freshmen, so expect the added year of experience to make them contenders not only here, but throughout the duration of the season.  

 

Other top ten teams in attendance include Iona, Virginia, Michigan, BYU, and Ole Miss. The Gaels were second here a year ago, and will enter confident after recording a dominating victory at Greater Louisville over Michigan and Ole Miss.

 

The individual favorites include Knight and Hehir, Michigan’s Mason Ferlic, Scrobilgen, and McGorty. The senior Hehir is the top returner from last year’s race.

 

Like any other year, this race is arguably more important for the NCAA bubble teams than it is for the elite teams who are likely to auto-qualify for Nationals by finishing top two at Regionals. An average of 20 men’s teams that have competed at Wisconsin the last four years have gone on to qualify for NCAAs, so expect a similar figure from this year’s field which features 15 of the top 25 ranked programs. 

 

Women’s 6K - #1 New Mexico Looks To Pad Their Resumé After Promising Start

With PAC-12 powers Oregon, Stanford, and Colorado all competing at Pre-Nats this weekend, any threat to #1 New Mexico’s dominance in Wisconsin has been all but eliminated. The Lobos showed that they were the real deal by scoring a paltry 29 points to win the Notre Dame Invitational, as the so-called “Fab Four” of Courtney Frerichs, Rhona Auckland, Alice Wright, and Calli Thackery all finished in the top six in South Bend. 

New Mexico was led by transfers Courtney Frerichs (L) and Rhona Auckland at Notre Dame

Even though there may not be a team talented enough to hang with New Mexico on Friday, we should get an even better read on the NCAA favorites as the distance bumps up to 6K for the first time. Pre-season #1 ranked and UK import Rhona Auckland is known more for her long distance pedigree, including that 19th place finish at World Cross in March, so I expect her to thrive in her first NCAA race at the championship distance. Combined with NCAA steeple runner-up and last year’s 13th place finisher at NCAA XC, Courtney Frerichs, the Lobos have the best duo of any team in the country. The pair couldn’t quite hang with freshman Ryen Frazier on the quick Notre Dame course, but the added kilometer could be a tremendous difference maker on Friday for Joe Franklin’s top two.

 

The sleeper team in this race, and perhaps in the NCAA overall, is #5 Providence. After starting the season ranked 11th in our poll, the Lady Friars torched Syracuse and Georgetown at the Battle in Beantown with just 42 points. In hindsight, we should have seen this coming for Ray Treacy’s squad in 2015, as they received a huge boost with the return of All-American Sarah Collins. 

 

Collins, whose career highlights include a 10th place finish at NCAAs in 2012, is back for the Friars after missing all of 2014-15, and Friday will be her first “big” race since the 2014 NCAA outdoor 5K. The senior has two career top ten finishes at Wisconsin, and it will be interesting to see how she handles the stage after missing a year of competition. 

 

Providence should have strength up front in Wisconsin, as junior Catarina Rocha has opened the season as the Friars’ #1 after playing that role for much of 2014 in Collins’ absence. Rocha beat Collins by a place in Boston two weeks ago, and is certain to improve on her 52nd place showing at Wisco last season after earning her first All-American honor at NCAA XC. Collins and Rocha make Providence one of the most improved teams in 2015, as this team could wind up second on Friday just one year after plummeting to 24th.

 

The noise surrounding the upstart #11 Boise State women was cranked up several decibels after the Broncos dominated at Roy Griak with just 37 points, not to mention that they did it with three freshmen in their top five. Led by 2014 NXN champion and blue-chip recruit Allie Ostrander, Boise put four in the top ten at Griak, proving in the least that they were much better than we anticipated. Ostrander and fellow frosh Annie Bothma were the aggressors throughout much of that race, and I expect them both to get out hard again on Friday even with the upgrade in competition. 

 

The individual to watch tomorrow is undoubtably N.C. State freshman Ryen Frazier, who leads her 8th ranked Wolfpack into Madison after her stunning victory at Notre Dame. There, Frazier ran away from the talented New Mexico bunch to record her second victory in as many races to open her collegiate career, and now she’ll get an even tougher test as she faces #1 ranked Dom Scott of Arkansas, among others. The freshman blitzed runner-up Courtney Frerichs in South Bend by a surprising five-second margin, and notably beat fellow freshman Anna Rohrer by a whopping 24-seconds, the same Anna Rohrer that won her second Foot Locker title over Frazier last December. 

Ryen Frazier looks to assert herself not only as the top freshman in 2015, but perhaps the best individual overall 

At Notre Dame, Frazier looked the part of someone capable of contending for an NCAA title, and how she handles her first collegiate 6K should give us an even better idea of that possibility. Her adjustment to the NCAA thus far has been seamless, but Wisconsin will be a more accurate portrayal of her fitness compared to many of the other top individuals in the country. 

 

Expect the top pack to whittle down to the New Mexico ladies, Scott of Arkansas, Frazier, Notre Dame’s Molly Seidel, and Wisconsin’s Sarah Disanza, if she ends up running. Disanza, who according to Byrne is a "game day decision," would be competing in her first cross country race since finishing second at NCAAs last fall. The Badger junior has dealt with injury issues for the better part of a year, but running on her home course against such a talented field, Disanza isn’t likely to fold easily. 

 

The 2015 adidas Wisconsin Invitational will be LIVE on FloTrack starting at 11 am CT Friday morning!