2015 Foot Locker Regionals Preview

2015 Foot Locker Regionals Preview

Nov 26, 2015 by Gordon Mack
2015 Foot Locker Regionals Preview


MileSplit has got you covered with all the action for Foot Locker regionals this weekend. Johanna Gretschel and Kyle Brazeil give you the rundown of what to watch for this weekend!

ENTER NXN/Foot Locker HUB!

Boys Foot Locker Northeast Preview



State of the Action:
What a race this looks to be.  At the top of the lineup, you have the undefeated Josh Clark, who captured an elusive MOC Title victory.  His main competition did beat him at Manhattan, but only in the merge.  Noah Affolder took home the Eastern States Race at Manhattan with ease, while Clark took home a Varsity Letter Race division.  Affolder was previously undefeated himself, before Aidan Tooker handed him his first loss of the season at Feds.  But look for Affolder to be out to avenge that statistic.  His performances at McQuaid and Manahattan were nothing short of noteworthy, and he could be rounding back into form just in time.

Matt Grossman was the favorite heading into that MOC win, after his impressive top performance from the Jersey Groups.  His 197 there would rival those front runners in the field, and should prove to be very deadly, if given the opportunity.  Likewise, Conor Lundy saw a closing kick on Affolder at Feds, and with VCP being the home course of the CHSAA, he'll feel right at home come Saturday.

Jake Brohpy is the PA State Champ, and has been very consistent throughout the season, but it right on the edge of qualification, despite a 5th place finish last year.  The pair from Connecticut, Gabe Altopp and Eric Van Der Els both look very strong, challenging NXN-NE frontrunner DJ Principe at New Englands.  Likewise, the pair from NJ are just as strong, as Joe Dragon and Will Daly placed very high at MOC.  Donny Glavin would round out the frontrunners, but is double entered in both Regionals.

The tenth spot is totally up for grabs.  Eion Nohilly has some family history at VCP, and showed a gutsy race at Feds, which could pay off big here.  Andrew Ernst and Marcelo Rocha are two studs from Massachusetts, and could bring that extra edge needed.  A big jump from anybody could prove to be the difference maker.



Favorites  
Josh Clark Highland Regional, NJ
Noah Affolder Carthage, NY
Matt Grossman Millburn, NJ
Conor Lundy Fordham Prep, NY
Gabe Altopp Ridgefield, CT
Eric Can Der Els Brien McMahon, CT
Joe Dragon High Point, NJ
Will Daly River Dell, NJ
Jake Brophy Central Bucks East, PA
   
Safe Bets  
Marcelo Rocha Peabody, MA
Andrew Ernst Marblehead, MA
Eion Nohilly John Jay-Cross River, NY
Randy Niesh Glastonbury, CT
Dominic Hockenbury Lake Lehman, PA
   
Dark Horses  
Nick Wolk Peters Township, PA
Nate Henderson J.P. McCaskey, PA
David Leff West Genesee, NY
Jordan Brannan Colts Neck, NJ
Ajay Saranthay Haddonfield, NJ
   
Double Entered - NXN/FL  
Donny Glavin McQuaid, NY

Girls Foot Locker Northeast Preview



State of the Action:
One thing is clear.  There are more quality runners in this field than there are available plane tickets to San Diego.  At the top, Jessica Lawson will highlight the field.  The Manhattan Course Record Holder is not only the Fed Champ, but is tailor made for the type of course at VCP, with a long finishing straightaway.  Her biggest competition will come from last years Regional Runner-up, Hannah Debalsi.  The senior from Connecticut was fifth overall at Foot Locker in 2014, and third in 2013, showing she has consistently peaked for the post-season across her career.  It will be interesting to see the two battle at Van Cortlandt.

Massachusetts will be sending their two best athletes to take a shot at the big show.  Maggie Cullen and Ariel Keklak blasted big marks at their Easterns Championships, and then traded slots the next weekend at the All-State Champs.  They both look primed for a plane ticket, especially after Keklak's 11th place the year before left her off in 2014.  The waters begin to muddy after the Top 4.  Alyssa Aldridge is the clear leader from the Garden State, running away with a MOC victory.  Maddie Davison took 4th at Regionals in 2014, and has since forgone her regular season, focusing on her homeschooling, and setting a more relaxed race schedule.  How sharp she'll enter the race will reflect how high she places.  And Finally, the Rhode Island State Champ Elly Lawler has a clear margin over the rest in her State, but how will it stack up against the field?

For those last spots, it is totally up for grabs.  Carly Benson has had highs and lows in her recent racing, and will need an A+ day to make it.   Megan Doody was her respective State Champ, and the elevated competition here could see a big improvement. Several girls double-entered in NXN are fighting for 5th and 6th places there, so there decisions will carry weight here.



Favorites  
Jess Lawson Corning, NY
Maggie Cullen Needham, MA
Ariel Keklak Lincoln-Sudbury, MA
Hannah Delbalsi Staples, CT
Alyssa Aldridge Mainland, NJ
Maddie Davison Homeschooled, PA
Elly Lawler South Kingstown, RI
Hayley Jackson Patuxent, MD
Maria Coffin Annapolis, MD
Carly Benson West Genesee, NY
   
Safe Bets  
Megan Doody Oyster River, NH
Rebecca Grusby Newton South, MA
Briana Gess Haddonfield, NJ
   
Dark Horses  
Hannah Bonaguidi Delaware Valley, NJ
Grace Connolly Natick, MA
Reilly Seibert Syosset, NY
   
Double Entered - NXN/FL  
Sage Hurta Hamilton, NY
Lauren Chapey Mamaroneck, NY
Katie Munks Monroe-Woodbury, NY
Mady Clahane Cumberland Valley, PA

Boys Foot Locker South Preview



Flo50 Individuals:
No. 1 Andrew Hunter, No. 6 Carter Blunt, No. 21 Gannon Willcutts, Bubble Connor Lane

Top Returners (2014 Regional Placement):

Andrew Hunter (1st), Carter Blunt (2nd), Gannon Willcutts (7th), Steven Cross (8th), Brandon Marquez (11th), Jonathan Lomogda (13th), TJ Sugg (23rd), Johnathan Chavez (24th), Tyler Cox-Philyaw (25th), Parker Scott (28th)

11/25 UPDATE: Carter Blunt is out for the season with an injury

Last year's 1-2 finishers in Drew Hunter of Loudon Valley, Va. and Carter Blunt of Frisco Independence, Texas return to McAlpine Park for their first true challenge of the fall.

Hunter, the No. 1 ranked runner in the nation, dominated this race last year by 18 seconds over Blunt, finishing in 14:36 to 14:54. Both runners are undefeated this fall and while Hunter did not improve his Virginia state meet record, he did show signs of significant improvement in clocking an astounding 14:20.8 over 5K to win the Third Battle Invitational. For reference, he ran "just" 14:54.4 to win the same race last fall.

Hunter went on to finish fourth in San Diego last year; he is the top returner followed by Austin Tamagno of California (fifth in 2014) and No. 3 Blunt, who took 13th at the championship - again, like Foot Locker South, exactly 18 seconds behind Hunter.

What kind of threat could Blunt possibly pose? Well, the No. 6 ranked senior is more rested this season. One year after tackling a full cross country season and appearances at both NXN and Foot Locker Regionals and Nationals, Blunt has significantly scaled back his racing schedule. The defending New Balance Nationals Outdoor Two Mile champion (8:58 PR) has raced just five times so far, including a few easy "cruise to the title" type wins because, let's face it - he simply doesn't have to try that hard to win in Texas. Last year at this time, Blunt had nine races under his belt.

Hunter has also scaled back a bit - he has six races under his belt as opposed to his nine pre-Foot Locker South races in 2014. He also has that dirty 8:42 two mile PR and the notoriety of being the sole prep to take down 2013/2014 Foot Locker champ Grant Fisher...  

It's possible for Blunt to win here, but we're not going to bet against a Hunter on a mission. (See what I did there?)

PICKS: 1. Drew Hunter 2. Carter Blunt
 

Girls Foot Locker South Preview


Nevada Mareno (blue singlet) is red-hot after her first summer of training for cross country. How close can she run to Weini Kelati (pink singlet), the No. 1 ranked runner in the nation?

Flo50 Individuals:
No. 1 Weini Kelati, No. 4 Nevada Mareno, No. 12 Julia Heymach, Bubble Ashton Endsley, Bubble Abby Gray, Bubble Lindsay Billings

Top Returners (2014 Regional Placement):
Libby Davidson (4th), Amaris Tyynismaa (1st, 13-14 Girls, 16:57), Weini Kelati (5th), Emma Grace Hurley (7th), Logan Morris (9th), Abby Gray (10th), Lindsay Billings (11th), Brianna Wolken (15th), Savannah Carnahan (18th), Blair Ramsey (19th)

When the gun goes off on Saturday, all eyes will be on Weini Kelati: does she dare take the field out with a sub-five minute mile, as she did at the Oatlands Invitational?

And, if she does, is anyone fit and/or crazy enough to keep pace?

A few weeks ago, I would have likely said 'no.' But that was before Leesville Road High School's Nevada Mareno, the defending national indoor mile champion (who has never raced outdoor track!), laid down a solo 10:02 3200m in her first-ever attempt at the distance last weekend. The run was only an afternoon removed from a 4:43 mile win over another former North Carolina prep national champ, NC State's Wesley Frazier.

November is not typically the time to press for quick track times. But Ryen Frazier, Wesley's younger sister, used the same races as tune-ups last year (albeit in 4:44/10:12) and went on to take runner-up honors at Foot Locker Nationals. Coincidence, no?

She'll have a solid measuring stick for nationals in Kelati, who is the nation's No. 1 ranked star for a reason. The Heritage, Va. sophomore has decimated her competition all year and raced a personal best of 16:29 for 5K. Remember, this is a girl who ran 9:12 for 3K at World Juniors in 2014 - that converts to 9:52 for 3200m. The Eritrean native is reportedly going after a sub-16 minute clocking at the notoriously fast McAlpine Park course.

What of the rest? The South girls won the regional team competition at Foot Locker Nationals in 2014 with just three seniors, making this perhaps the toughest region from which to advance.

The top two returners in Paige Hofstad and Gabby Karas are both out for the season with injury. No. 3 returner Libby Davidson is not in the form that we saw from her in 2014, though she ran within 30 seconds of Kelati at the Virginia state meet.

The top four girls ran sub-17 last year, as did Amaris Tyynismaa to win the Girls 13-14 division, though the eighth-grader was too young to advance to San Diego. The Montgomery Catholic, Ala. star does not look to be in 16:57 form again, but she remains an X-factor to qualify.

The 1-2 Texas duo of Ashton Endsley and Abby Gray from last weekend's NXN South Regional are doubling up here with good shots to advance, though the Lone Star state favorite must be No. 12 ranked Julia Heymach. The Houston Lamar junior placed 16th at NXN last fall but really ran into the spotlight this spring with a 10:14/4:40 double at the Texas state meet. She is lightly raced this fall and could contend for the top prize herself.

Bubble individual Lindsay Billings was the first girl out in 2014, but looks ready to qualify for the first time in her final prep season. Her only loss this fall is to fellow Georgian Savannah Carnahan, who is also a top 10 returner, though that was at a mid-season race and Billings went on to win the 5A state title by 42 seconds. Running just behind those two all season is sophomore Kaylee DuPont, Carnahan's teammate at South Forsyth High School, who has steadily improved throughout the fall and placed 21st as a freshman in the Seeded Girls race here last year.

No. 5 returner Logan Morris, ninth at Foot Locker South and 32nd at Nationals last year, has quietly won races in South Carolina all fall. The consistent 17-minute 5K runner is undefeated this season and has PRed on nearly every course.

PICKS: 1. Weini Kelati 2. Nevada Mareno 3. Julia Heymach 4. Ashton Endsley 5. Libby Davidson 6. Abby Gray 7. Lindsay Billings 8. Logan Morris 9. Amaris Tyynismaa 10. Savannah Carnahan
 

Boys Foot Locker Midwest Preview


Jon Davis and Ben Veatch will go for round two at Foot Locker Midwest. Davis prevailed, 14:59 to 15:01, at the NXN Midwest Championship two weeks ago.

Flo50 Individuals:
No. 4 Jon Davis, No. 5 Ben Veatch, No. 9 Andrew Jordan, No. 10 Paul Roberts, No. 22 Isaac Harding, No. 25 Seth Hirsch, Bubble Sam Clausnitzer, Bubble Finn Gessner

Top returners (2014 Regional Placement):
Ben Veatch (5th), Jon Davis (8th), Brayden Law (12th), Kevin Koski (23rd), Cooper Williams (25th), Morgan Beadlescomb (28th), Isaac Harding (30th), Luke Wagner (31st), Tom Sullivan (34th), Kyle Collins (36th)

The Foot Locker Midwest regional battle is likely to look familiar, as the top two from NXN Midwest in Jon Davis of Oakwood, Ill. and Ben Veatch of Carmel, Ind. reprise their front-running roles. Senior Veatch, the No. 1 returner from NXN and the No. 5 ranked runner in the nation this year, controlled the early pace at LaVerne Gibson before yielding to champion Davis by just one second.

Davis, the No. 4 ranked runner in the nation this year, is on a tear this year with a swift 13:59.3 personal best for three miles. He was eighth at this meet last year and 37th at Foot Locker Nationals; he certainly looks poised not only to make a return trip to San Diego but to contend for the national title.

Finishing seven seconds behind Veatch was Isaac Harding of Rockford, the D1 Michigan state cross country champion. The senior is the No. 7 returner here, as he placed 30th in the Seeded Race in 2014.

Another runner with a state title and nation-leading times on his resume this fall is Andrew Jordan of Watkins Memorial, Oh. The Iowa State-bound senior is undefeated in 2015 with a nice PR of 14:44.7 for 5K; he was 48th at Foot Locker Midwest in 2014 and could be the most improved runner in the nation when all is said and done. He is the only top runner at this meet who has not tested himself at an NXN Region meet.

The appearance of Paul Roberts here will provide some insight about national standings, as the four-time state cross country champion took third last weekend at NXN-Southwest to Casey Clinger and Alek Parsons, both of Utah. Senior Roberts has never tried out for Foot Locker, but a dominant season in Colorado and experience at IAAF World XC Championships assures he should make the squad.

Seth Hirsch of Millard West, Neb. is in a similar position to Roberts after taking third at NXN Heartland behind Jaret Carpenter and Micah Mather, both of whom will not make an appearance here. With one for-sure national qualification under his belt, the junior may be more likely to make a big move and break up the race. Fellow NXN Heartland qualifiers in Finn Gessner (4th) and Sam Clausnitzer (5th) will also go for the double; the threesome were separated by a total of 11 seconds. Another five seconds back at NXN Heartland was Kevin Koski of Chequamegon, Wis., who finished as the first man outside of automatic qualification in eighth place overall. The senior, a two-time Wisconsin state champion, will look for redemption in his home state.

Others with potential to qualify include Ben Naeger of Ste. Genevieve, Mo. and Luke Wagner of St. Ignatius, Oh., who just missed out on qualifying to NXN by placing ninth and 15th, respectively, at NXN Midwest.

PICKS: 1. Jon Davis 2. Ben Veatch 3. Andrew Jordan 4. Paul Roberts 5. Isaac Harding 6. Seth Hirsch 7. Sam Clausnitzer 8. Finn Gessner 9. Kevin Koski 10. Ben Naeger
 

Girls Foot Locker Midwest Preview


Judy Pendergast (left) broke the LaVerne Gibson course record set by Anna Rohrer (right) at NXN Midwest. Can she become the second girl to break 17 minutes at Foot Locker Midwest? Rohrer's course record is 16:54.

Flo50 Individuals:
No. 3 Judy Pendergast, No. 7 Stephanie Jenks, No. 11 Taylor Werner, No. 13 Lauren Gregory, No. 18 Maryjeanne Gilbert, No. 21 Cailie Logue, Bubble Sarah Leinheiser

Top returners (2014 Regional Placement):
Lauren Gregory (2nd), Maryjeanne Gilbert (3rd), Stephanie Jenks (5th), Sarah Kettel (8th), Morgan Florsheim (10th), Kayla Young (12th), Alex Buck (13th), Lauren Johnson (14th), Lexa Barrott (19th)

Two-time Foot Locker Nationals champion Anna Rohrer owns the top two times ever recorded in the history of this meet and is the only female to break 17 minutes over the 5K course. Top-ranked Judy Pendergast of Naperville North has already broken one Rohrer record this year - can she make it two? The course record is 16:54, set in 2012 before Rohrer's first national title.

The Harvard-bound senior broke Rohrer's record at LaVerne Gibson; she nearly broke 17 minutes to win the NXN Midwest Regional by a dominating 28 seconds. Runner-up Anna West is not attempting the double, but the rest of the top 10 is entered: Sarah Leinheiser (3rd), Madison Troy (4th), Alex Buck (5th), Jocelyn Long (7th), Brooke Wilson (9th) and Sarah Kettel (10th).

No one from that field will challenge Pendergast, but there are a few battle-challenged All-Americans from other regions with whom she must contend here.

Stephanie Jenks poses the biggest threat: the Cal signee is fresh off a win at NXN Heartland in 17:01.3. She's fresh, period - the Linn-Mar High School senior does not compete during the regular high school season and used the NXN regional as her rust-buster. Not a bad start. She is a three-time NXN competitor and and two-time Foot Locker qualifier; she placed 15th at Foot Locker and 18th at NXN last fall - though her best finish came in 2013 with a ninth-place run in San Diego. Jenks has been through the drill before and is ready to contend for top honors; with such a sparse racing schedule this fall, she also has the biggest ceiling for improvement.

Taylor Werner of Ste. Genevieve, Mo. is having her best season yet in her senior year. The Arkansas commit competed in both NXN and Foot Locker both her freshman and sophomore years - with her best finishes in 2013 as a soph (10th at Foot Locker, fifth at NXN). She struggled with injuries last fall, but seems back on top in recording course PRs in nearly every race. Most recently, she cut 16 seconds off her own Missouri state meet course record by winning her fourth consecutive title in 17:14.22.

Lauren Gregory has only one blemish on her resume this season - and that's a runner-up finish at NXN Southwest to Katie Rainsberger, who ranked No. 2 in the nation. The three-time Colorado state cross country champion from Fort Collins has the speed (4:41 Mile/10:15 3200m) and experience (7th at NXN '13, 11t at FL '14) to contend with anyone in the country.

There's only one other name we see legitimately contending for the top spot here: Maryjeanne Gilbert of Peoria Notre Dame. The fellow Illinois star has dominated Class 2A for the past four years the same way that Pendergast has cleared out Class 3A this fall. She ran a solo 16:23 for the third-fastest time of the day at the Illinois state meet and her only loss was an early September run that she trained through. She placed 12th at Foot Locker Nationals last year and is the No. 7 returner to San Diego.

That leaves five spots, which we're predicting will be filled by the following:
  • Kansas state champion Cailie Logue ran within 12 seconds of Jenks at NXN Heartland
  • Leinheiser was third by just milliseconds at NXN Midwest behind West
  • Sophomore Troy's 17:28.2 was the fastest time across all divisions at the Michigan state meet and her fourth place at NXN Midwest was her debut in a major national-level race
  • Buck has already qualified for NXN by virtue of a fifth place finish at NXN Midwest and she was one of the first girls out of FL qualification last year in 13th; she is the No. 7 returner to Kenosha
  • Emma Benner of Forest Lake Area, Mn. finished fifth at NXN Heartland - but she nearly got third behind Jenks/Logue, as she and Grace Ping and Bethany Hasz (MN state meet record holder) all crossed the line in a dead heat at 17:17 

PICKS: 1. Judy Pendergast 2. Stephanie Jenks 3. Taylor Werner 4. Lauren Gregory 5. Maryjeanne Gilbert 6. Cailie Logue 7. Sarah Leinheiser 8. Madison Troy 9. Alex Buck 10. Emma Benner