Nike Cross NationalsDec 4, 2015 by Gordon Mack
NXN Boys Podium Team Picks & Preview
NXN Boys Podium Team Picks & Preview
By Dennis Young, MileSplit
Speed Rating Rank: 1
Flo50 Rank: 1
Regional: California/1st/43 pts/15:13 avg/0:38 spread
Coach: Doug Soles
Top 7: Spencer Dodds, Cole Spencer, Isaac Cortes, Solomon Fountain, Nelson Quintana, Tony Robinson, Brandon Shields
NXN Podiums: None.
Great Oak has lost exactly once this year, to Timpanogos at Bob Firman. Here's how long ago Bob Firman was: it was the first day of the NCAA countable season. And the NCAA championships ended two weeks ago.
What they've done since then has been nothing short of one of the best series of performances by an American high school boys cross country team. They've raced seriously twice, and both times, they broke venerable records. At Mt. SAC on October 23rd, they became the first boys quintet to break seventy-five minutes. And at Woodward Park in Saturday's California state meet, they beat Arcadia's team time record by three seconds. Arcadia set that record in 2010, when they became the first California school to win NXN. Great Oak has everything it takes to become the second. To pretend otherwise is to engage in hot-takery and foolishness.
Flo50 Rank: 1
Regional: California/1st/43 pts/15:13 avg/0:38 spread
Coach: Doug Soles
Top 7: Spencer Dodds, Cole Spencer, Isaac Cortes, Solomon Fountain, Nelson Quintana, Tony Robinson, Brandon Shields
NXN Podiums: None.
Great Oak has lost exactly once this year, to Timpanogos at Bob Firman. Here's how long ago Bob Firman was: it was the first day of the NCAA countable season. And the NCAA championships ended two weeks ago.
What they've done since then has been nothing short of one of the best series of performances by an American high school boys cross country team. They've raced seriously twice, and both times, they broke venerable records. At Mt. SAC on October 23rd, they became the first boys quintet to break seventy-five minutes. And at Woodward Park in Saturday's California state meet, they beat Arcadia's team time record by three seconds. Arcadia set that record in 2010, when they became the first California school to win NXN. Great Oak has everything it takes to become the second. To pretend otherwise is to engage in hot-takery and foolishness.
2. Hopkins (MN)
Flo50 Rank: 2
Regional: Heartland/1st/71 pts/15:45 avg/0:18 spread
Coach: Mike Harris
Top 7: Jack Henschel Seth Eliason, Owen Hoeft, Hunter Staack, Samuel Branson, Bridger Pavelka, Eli Hoeft
Top 7: Jack Henschel Seth Eliason, Owen Hoeft, Hunter Staack, Samuel Branson, Bridger Pavelka, Eli Hoeft
NXN Podiums: None.
No matter what goes down in Portland, it's safe to say that Hopkins will be the only team with two brothers that are roughly a foot apart in height. (That's Owen Hoeft in the orange hat and his brother Eli on the far right) Though their performance at regionals was statistically similar to 2014 nationals runners-up Wayzata's last year--with 2015 Hopkins averaging 15:45 and 2014 Wayzata 15:50--conditions were much faster at Yankton Park this year. Hopkins will be gunning for the two California teams on Saturday; the bet here is that they split them. Out of the teams we're projecting to finish between second and eighth, only Hopkins had a spread under forty seconds at its regional meet. That should be enough to beat out fellow podium contenders Downingtown West, Liverpool, and Sandburg, even if it's not enough to take down the West Coast teams.
They are every bit as tall as they appear in this spectacular photo.
No matter what goes down in Portland, it's safe to say that Hopkins will be the only team with two brothers that are roughly a foot apart in height. (That's Owen Hoeft in the orange hat and his brother Eli on the far right) Though their performance at regionals was statistically similar to 2014 nationals runners-up Wayzata's last year--with 2015 Hopkins averaging 15:45 and 2014 Wayzata 15:50--conditions were much faster at Yankton Park this year. Hopkins will be gunning for the two California teams on Saturday; the bet here is that they split them. Out of the teams we're projecting to finish between second and eighth, only Hopkins had a spread under forty seconds at its regional meet. That should be enough to beat out fellow podium contenders Downingtown West, Liverpool, and Sandburg, even if it's not enough to take down the West Coast teams.
They are every bit as tall as they appear in this spectacular photo.
3. Dana Hills (CA)
Regional: California/2nd/65 pts/15:45 avg/0:41 spread
Coach: Tim Butler
Top 7: Jake Ogden, Jack Landgraf, Mason Coppi, Colin Stein, Brandon Hough, Thomas Wilfert, John Turner
Top 7: Jake Ogden, Jack Landgraf, Mason Coppi, Colin Stein, Brandon Hough, Thomas Wilfert, John Turner
NXN Podiums: None.
The Dolphins go into this meet knowing that they can't win without a little help from Great Oak. Even if Dana Hills's usual #1 Mason Coppi beat out Phillip Rocha for the California state title, Great Oak still would have won 47-56. That's a pretty narrow margin behind the probable national champions!
The Dolphins go into this meet knowing that they can't win without a little help from Great Oak. Even if Dana Hills's usual #1 Mason Coppi beat out Phillip Rocha for the California state title, Great Oak still would have won 47-56. That's a pretty narrow margin behind the probable national champions!
It might be a little capricious and arbitrary to put Dana Hills at #3, but it feels like a team that hasn't lost yet should be in that spot. The Dolphins could easily leap to #2 on Saturday, though. One might say that it won't be much of an upHILL climb!
Ok, I'll stop. One final piece of motivation: longtime coach Tim Butler, who has worked at Dana Hills for over forty years, announced on Thursday night that he was stepping down. A national title would be a storybook ending.
Regional: Midwest/1st/120 pts/15:44 avg/1:04 spread
Coach: John O'Malley
NXN Podiums: None.
Sandburg has been ranked high and rated well all fall, but sneakily, they're a bit of an unknown. They've raced often but not against out-of-Illinois competition, and in their one foray out of the Land of Lincoln--NXN Midwest--the non-Illinois teams did not stack up. Sandburg, Neuqua Valley, and Lyons, all Illinois schools, grabbed the region's three qualifying spots.
Normally 120 points at a mere regional meet would be a bad sign for a team's podium chances. But there's a rich history of Chicagoland boys teams mounting the trophy stand in Portland--Neuqua Valley, York, and Naperville North have all done it--and seems like that the difference between the non-Great Oak podium contenders (teams 2 through 7 in this article) is pretty thin.
CHECK OUT MILESPLIT'S REMAINING TEAM PREVIEWS HERE
Sandburg has been ranked high and rated well all fall, but sneakily, they're a bit of an unknown. They've raced often but not against out-of-Illinois competition, and in their one foray out of the Land of Lincoln--NXN Midwest--the non-Illinois teams did not stack up. Sandburg, Neuqua Valley, and Lyons, all Illinois schools, grabbed the region's three qualifying spots.
Normally 120 points at a mere regional meet would be a bad sign for a team's podium chances. But there's a rich history of Chicagoland boys teams mounting the trophy stand in Portland--Neuqua Valley, York, and Naperville North have all done it--and seems like that the difference between the non-Great Oak podium contenders (teams 2 through 7 in this article) is pretty thin.
CHECK OUT MILESPLIT'S REMAINING TEAM PREVIEWS HERE
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