WOMEN

If this race is even a third as thrilling as its 2012 predecessor, it will be one of the greatest Trials distance races of all time. Six American women have broken 15:10 this year: Molly Huddle, Emily Infeld, Nicole Tully, Marielle Hall, Shelby Houlihan, and Kim Conley. Huddle and Conley are favored to make the 10K team, and will likely scratch this race if they do. I’d add Katie Mackey and Abbey D’Agostino. Six contenders. Let’s go to the tape.

Tale of the Tilastopaja

Emily Infeld: 15:00i SB/PB
Teams: Third at USAs 10K in 2015
Trials freshness: Entered/declared in 10K

Nicole Tully: 15:04 PB/SB
Teams: First in 2015
Trials freshness: FRESH!

Marielle Hall: 15:06i PB/SB
Teams: Second in 2015
Trials freshness: Entered/declared in 10K

Shelby Houlihan: 15:06i PB/SB
Teams: None
Trials freshness: FRESH!

Katie Mackey: Season debut/15:04 PB (2014)
Teams: None
Trials freshness: FRESH!

Abbey D’Agostino: 15:24i SB/15:03 PB
Teams: Third in 2015
Trials freshness: FRESH!

This event is a goddamn crapshoot. One woman ran her PR this outdoor season, Nicole Tully, for 15:04 at Payton Jordan. She also ran 16:18 at Prefontaine, roughly a minute behind Hall. Hall, Houlihan, D’Agostino, Mackey, Infeld, and Tully are the clear favorites with their sub-15:10 PBs, but I only have rock-solid confidence in Hall. The 2014 NCAA champion is the only woman on the 2015 5K team who put in a year of relatively unscathed training since, and she hasn’t been surpassed by anyone on the American scene.Mackey hasn’t run a 5K this year. Houlihan was a 1500m runner in college, and ran one 5K since the 2015 NCAA meet. D’Agostino was injured at the start of the season, and didn’t debut until last week, when she finished nine seconds behind Hall in Boston. Infeld suffered a stress fracture after U.S. indoors.

Though Mackey and Houlihan have combined for zero 5Ks this outdoor season, their low 4:0x-1500m speed and relative health give them the edge over a banged-up Tully, D’Agostino, and Infeld.

So my team is Hall, Mackey, and Houlihan. But the ultimate question will be whether injured 5K specialists Tully, Infeld, and D’Agostino can beat healthy 1500m runners Mackey and Houlihan.

Mackey nearly did it last year before falling as the field wound up to kick. She’s a better 5K runner than her resume; Hall has the cleanest resume in the field; this will be the beginning of an excellent 5K career for Houlihan. That’s what it says here, anyway.

FINAL: 4:28 PT, Sunday July 10

FloTrack projections:

1. Katie Mackey
2. Shelby Houlihan
3. Marielle Hall
4. Abbey D’Agostino
5. Nicole Tully
6. Emily Infeld

My picks:

1. Marielle Hall
2. Shelby Houlihan
3. Katie Mackey
4. Abbey D’Agostino
5. Emily Infeld
6. Nicole Tully

2016 US leaders:

1. Molly Huddle, 14:48.14
2. Emily Infeld, 15:00.91i
3. Nicole Tully, 15:04.08
4. Marielle Hall, 15:06.05i
5. Shelby Houlihan, 15:06.22i
6. Kim Conley, 15:09.31

Last three Team USAs:

2015 worlds: Tully, Hall, D’Agostino
2013 worlds: (Jenny Simpson), Huddle, Shannon Rowbury, Conley
2012 Olympics: Julie Culley, Huddle, Conley

MEN

Here’s what this race comes down to: tired Galen Rupp, Ben True, Bernard Lagat, and Eric Jenkins versus fresh Ryan Hill, Paul Chelimo, and Garrett Heath (we are assuming Hassan Mead will scratch after making the 10K team).

Rupp and Hill are the only two Americans to make each of the last two outdoor international teams, but both were soundly beaten the last time they raced a 5K. Rupp lost to Justyn Knight and Woody Kincaid at Stumptown, and Hill finished 15th at the Prefontaine Classic behind Mead, True, and Paul Chelimo, among others.

True, the third American on last year’s 5K team, has had a relatively quiet 2016. He raced three times this calendar year: a 13:41 road 5K in April, that 13:12 5K at Pre (ahead of Chelimo and Hill), and a shocking 3:36.05 U.S. 1500m leader in Boston two weeks ago—that’s it.

Have Jenkins, Chelimo, Lagat, or Heath done enough to disrupt the 2015 order? My picks say otherwise, but frankly, they are unwise. Chelimo had a gangbusters performance in the 3K at USATF indoors, but his one excellent race has been the exception, whereas Hill’s one poor race was the exception in a season that includes a world indoor medal at 3K.

Hill’s four finals this year are 3K wins at Millrose and USAs, a 3K runner-up finish at world indoors, and the aforementioned dud at Pre. Unless he’s injured, one stinker is not enough to ruin Hill’s chances.

Chelimo has never broken 13:20. Though a crazy person picked him to win, you should not. His fitness is simply not in the same league as Jenkins' (13:07), Rupp's (12:58), True's (13:02), Hill's (13:05), Lagat's (12:53), or even Heath's (13:16).

Heath almost outkicked Rupp for third last year, but he had 3:34/13:16 season-bests. This year, Heath has only run 3:40/13:23 outdoors.

My hunch is the marathon ruined Rupp’s legs for the 5K, or at least made him vulnerable to domestic defeat. But Alberto Salazar's ambitions for Rupp have never led him astray at a major outdoor championship, and it’s a mug’s game to say their goals will finally be too big at this one. He’s Galen F-ing Rupp until the results say otherwise. Those results could come Saturday night, but until then, GFR.


So Rupp and Hill are favored for two spots. Can Jenkins, Chelimo, Lagat, or Heath knock off True for the third? I think not—I love that True has the best 1500m season-best of anyone entered in the meet in any event—but if anyone can, it's Jenkins. Though he finished seventh at Stumptown, Salazar and the Oregon Project have a proven track record of getting the dud out of their athletes' legs days or weeks before a major meet and then performing well. That should continue with at least one NOP athlete on Saturday night, and maybe two.

FINAL: 5:20 PM, Saturday July 9

FloTrack projections:

1. Ben True
2. Ryan Hill
3. Garrett Heath
4. Paul Chelimo
5. Galen Rupp
6. Eric Jenkins
7. Bernard Lagat
8. Sean McGorty

My picks:

1. Paul Chelimo
2. Ben True
3. Garrett Heath
4. Ryan Hill
5. Galen Rupp
6. Sean McGorty
7. Riley Masters
8. Eric Jenkins

2016 US leaders:

1. Hassan Mead, 13:04.17
2. Ben True, 13:12.67
3. Shadrack Kipchirchir, 13:18.52
4. Galen Rupp, 13:20.69
5. Paul Chelimo 13:21.61
6. Garrett Heath, 13:23.06
7. Sean McGorty, 13:24.25
8. Eric Jenkins, 13:24.67

Last three Team USAs:

2015 worlds: Hill, True, Rupp
2013 worlds: Lagat, Rupp, Hill
2012 Olympics: Rupp, Lagat, Lopez Lomong