The NCAA Outdoor Championships features two drastically different storylines for the men's and women's 1500m: New Mexico's Josh Kerr is expected to dominate the men's competition, while eight different women have a legitimate shot to take home the title next week in Eugene, OR. View full entries for the event here and stay tuned to the NCAA meet page for more previews and coverage.

Josh Kerr Is Probably Going To Win

New Mexico sophomore Josh Kerr burst onto the scene with a bang this March by decisively winning the NCAA indoor mile and handing 17-time NCAA champion Edward Cheserek a rare defeat in the process. Not bad for a guy who had, at the time, not yet broken four minutes in the mile. (Although Kerr did have a 3:41 1500m credential to his name from his freshman year). 

Flash forward one month and Kerr's win isn't as much of a shock. The 19-year-old clocked 3:35.99, the sixth-fastest time in NCAA history, to win the Bryan Clay Invitational in April over who would be his biggest challengers at NCAAs: Craig Engels of Ole Miss, who was second in 3:37.75; Josh Thompson of Oklahoma State, who took fourth behind Kerr; and Nike pro Ryan Hill in 3:38.21.

​Watch Josh Kerr run 3:35.99, NCAA No. 6 all-time, vs. Craig Engels and Josh Thompson:



Besides the top three men, 2017 is actually a much slower year for the 1500m than 2016. Before NCAAs last year, five men had run under 3:40, and a total of 13 men had run 3:40 or faster. This year, just Kerr, Engels, and Thompson have run under 3:40 and a total of seven men have run 3:40 or faster. If someone were to take down Kerr, we'd place our bets on Engels. The SEC champion has 1:46 wheels for 800m and proved at the Olympic Trials last year that he can hang with the biggest dogs in the biz, placing fourth in the 800m and fifth in the 1500m finals.

Justine Kiprotich of Michigan State is another person of interest. His 3:42.36 SB ranks just No. 26 in the NCAA this season, but he won the Big Ten Championship title and posted the fastest time out of the NCAA East Prelims after initially being disallowed to run. Kiprotich forgot to wear his bib number and so wasn't allowed to start in the first round. However, he was later automatically advanced to the quarterfinal once the officials found out he was ranked No. 6 in the East. It would be a neat story if he were to somehow end up NCAA champion.

At Least Eight Different Women Have A Shot, But Dani Jones Is Probably The Favorite

The women's 1500m is absolutely loaded, and if history is any judge, it's going to be a close one. The past two years of the women's 1500m final have been particularly thrilling as 2016's contest was decided by just 0.01 seconds, with Marta Freitas of Mississippi State over Elise Cranny of Stanford, 4:09.53 to 4:09.54. The previous year saw Mississippi State's Rhianwedd Price beat out defending champion Shelby Houlihan by 0.11 seconds, 4:09.56 to 4:09.67.

Natalja Piliusina, the 2013 champ, was also in the latter race, which just proves that one title doesn't guarantee another. The 2017 edition of the women's 1500m features Price, who did not run last year due to injury, along with two other NCAA champions: 2016 indoor mile champ Kaela Edwards of Oklahoma State, the Big 12 champion, and 2017 indoor mile champ Karisa Nelson, whose win this March marked the first NCAA title for any athlete in any sport in Samford school history and whose 4:10.91 PB is the fastest in the NCAA this year.

​Watch Karisa Nelson win the 2017 NCAA indoor mile:



There's also Dani Jones of Colorado, who hasn't won an individual mile or 1500m title at the NCAA level but was the darling of the indoor national meet after anchoring the Buffs' DMR to victory and winning the 3K, both with the aid of a ferocious kick. Those wins, plus her Pac-12 1500m/5K sweep, make her the probable favorite in a race where anything can--and will--happen. 

In addition to the four NCAA champions, there are three other women who have a realistic shot to win the whole shebang. Here's a quick drill down:

ATHLETE	SCHOOL	SB/PB	2016 POST-SEASON	OTHER ACCOLADES
Christina Aragon	Stanford	4:13.43/4:08.71	IAAF World U20 Champs 1500m bronze medalist	2017 Pac-12 800m runner-up
Kaela Edwards	Oklahoma State	4:18.23/4:11.0 (en route to 4:28 mile)	6th in 1500m final	2017 Big 12 1500m champ; 4th in NCAA indoor mile; 1K collegiate record holder
Nikki Hiltz	Arkansas	4:12.09	17th in NCAA West Prelims	2017 SEC 1500m champ; 6th at 2017 NCAA indoor mile; 11th in 2015 NCAA 1500m final
Dani Jones	Colorado	4:12.68	9th in 1500m final	2017 Pac-12 1500/5k champ; 2017 NCAA indoor 3k/DMR champ
Amy-Eloise Neale	Washington	4:11.02	10th in 1500m final	2017 Pac-12 5K runner-up, 9th in 2017 NCAA indoor mile
Karisa Nelson	Samford	4:10.91	21st in 1500m prelims	2017 NCAA indoor mile champ
Rhianwedd Price	Mississippi State	4:13.84/4:09.56	DNR (injured)	2015 NCAA 1500m champ
Katie Rainsberger	Oregon	4:11.53	set HSR for 3K in 9:00.62 at IAAF World U20 Champs; ran 4:12 for 1500	2017 Pac-12 1500m runner-up; third place in 2017 Pac-12 5K, NCAA indoor 3K, NCAA DMR

Christina Aragon, a true freshman at Stanford, is a particularly interesting athlete. She earned a bronze medal at the IAAF World U20 Championships last summer over the likes of Alexa Efraimson and ran 4:08.71 in the process--one of the fastest-ever marks for a high schooler. After earning All-American honors in cross country, she redshirted the indoor season and then spent much of outdoors focusing on the 800m--including nabbing runner-up honors at the Pac-12 Championships behind only NCAA-record holder Raevyn Rogers. 

​We talked to Christina Aragon after her surprise bronze medal at the IAAF World U20 Championships, a first for an American athlete:



Also notable is Helen Schlachtenhaufen of Dartmouth, who dropped 11 seconds from her 1500m time in a year to win the East Prelim in 4:11.15, the No. 3 time in the NCAA this year. She was runner-up at Heps to Frances Schmiede of Yale, who took advantage of the quick East Prelims to set her own PB at 4:13.13. Both women are making their first appearances at the NCAA Outdoor Championships.