Our next installment of event previews for the 2019 World Championships in Doha, Qatar, focuses on the women's distance races. 

Women’s 800m

Reigning Champion: Caster Semenya

2019 Diamond League Champion: Ajee' Wilson

Event Schedule: Sept. 27 (Round 1); Sept. 28 (Semifinal); Oct. 1 (Final)

Analysis: 

Ajee' Wilson has a chance to make history. No American woman has won an 800m gold medal at a World Championships. Madeline Manning won an Olympic title at the distance in 1968. It’s hard to see Wilson as anything other than a large favorite in Doha. Of the entered athletes, she has the fastest lifetime- and season-best, and no clear challenger. 

Since the new IAAF testosterone regulations forced Caster Semenya and Francine Niyonsaba from the event in the early stages of the season, Wilson has won every race. The most recent victory came in the Diamond League final in Brussels. Wilson only ran 2:00.24, but nobody was able to touch her. As her competition has changed, Wilson has not. She’s locked in at that 1:57 and 1:58 range and is able to adapt tactically if the race requires it. 

She’s run 1:57.72 and 1:57.73 this summer; the latter came in Monaco where she held off Jamaica’s Natoya Goule. Goule’s mark of 1:57.90 puts her second on the entry list, but like the rest of the world, she hasn’t been as consistent as Wilson. This event as a whole is promising for the Americans. Hanna Green will make her first World Championships appearance; she ran 1:58.19 in Des Moines at the U.S. Championships. Pair that with her win at the Paris Diamond League and she’s a bona fide medal threat. Raevyn Rogers, third at USAs, has run two minutes four different times this year. That might be enough to medal. The United States has a fourth athlete in the event in Ce’Aira Brown, who gained entry after Wilson won the Diamond League.

Lynsey Sharp and Winnie Nanyondo have run well on the Diamond League circuit and are part of a long list of women who can get a medal. The 2013 world champion Eunice Sum is Kenya’s only entry in this event. She’s raced sparingly this year but has experience and a personal best of 1:56.99.

Women’s 1500m

Reigning Champion: Faith Kipyegon

2019 Diamond League Champion: Sifan Hassan

Event Schedule: Oct. 2 (Round 1); Oct 3. (Semifinal); Oct. 5 (Final)

Analysis:

The state of the women’s 1500m — like the 5000m and 10,000m — is predicated on what races Sifan Hassan decides to run. Right now she’s entered in all three, despite the fact that the women’s 1500m and 5000m finals are back-to-back. She will need to scratch one. If it's the 1500m, that means that the world record holder in the mile won’t be competing, opening up the medal stand dramatically. In addition to the world record, Hassan has run 3:55.93 and 3:57.08. Her Diamond League victory in the event only added to the status of “favorite if she runs it.” 

Her competition doesn’t look as strong as it did at the beginning of the year. Genzebe Dibaba, the 1500m world record holder who edged Hassan in Rabat, has scratched. Laura Muir has been dealing with an injury. Faith Kipyegon raced sparingly this year, competing just once since the Prefontaine Classic in late June.

Muir and Kipyegon are still tough outs and there are others who could challenge Hassan, but she is the one that this event centers on at the moment. 

The United States will have a trio capable of making it to the finals in Shelby Houlihan, Jenny Simpson, and Nikki Hiltz. Houlihan has run on this stage before, though never in the current iteration of Shelby Houlihan. Her light race schedule (only three meets in the outdoor season), might cause some to forget just how good she was in 2018. If there was a global championship outdoors last year, Houlihan would have been right there for gold. 

Simpson was second to Houlihan at USAs, and while she’s been beaten by Houlihan as of late, Simpson in championships is formidable. She’s won four global medals, including a silver in London two years ago in an absolutely stacked race.

Hassan’s teammate Konstanze Klosterhalfen has had an incredible summer in every distance she’s run. Ditto for Canada’s Gabriela Debues-Stafford, who was third in the Diamond League final in a lifetime best of 3:59.59. 

Women’s 3000m Steeplechase

Reigning Champion: Emma Coburn

2019 Diamond League Champion: Beatrice Chepkoech

Event Schedule: Sept. 27 (Round 1); Sept. 30 (Final)

Analysis: 

Save for one loss in Oslo, Beatrice Chepkoech has been unscathed in 2019. The world record holder hasn’t touched her 8:44, but she hasn’t needed to. Her season-best of 8:55.58 is more than eight seconds better than the next fastest woman. Norah Jeruto, the woman who won in Oslo, isn’t on the Kenyan team, clearing an even wider path Chepkoech. 

But she will have to unseat American Emma Coburn, who pulled off the biggest upset of the meet in 2017 when she led an American 1-2 in this event alongside Courtney Frerichs. Coburn was second to Chepkoech at the Prefontaine Classic and has experimented with racing more aggressively. That hasn’t always yielded the highest finishes, but it’s given her flexibility with a race strategy. 

Frerichs hasn’t raced much in 2019 — she skipped the Diamond League final — so it’s harder to know what to expect. Her best time of the year was a 9:09.75 at the Prefontaine Classic. In total, the United States has three women in the top nine (Coburn, Frerichs, and Colleen Quigley). 

Kenya will be strong even without Jeruto. Hyvin Kiyeng, the 2015 world champion, and Celliphine Chespol join with Chepkoech to give Kenya three of the four fastest times of the year. 

Women’s 5000m 

Reigning Champion: Hellen Obiri

2019 Diamond League Champion: Sifan Hassan

Event Schedule: Oct. 2 (Round 1); Oct. 5 (Final)

Analysis:

Another event that is Hassan-dependent. As with the 1500m, if Hassan runs she will be the favorite. She’s coming off a Diamond League title in Brussels where she held off her three top competitors: Hellen Obiri, Konstanze Klosterhalfen, and Letesenbet Gidey. 

Obiri, the reigning champion, has had a herky-jerky season. She’s been beaten by Hassan, but she’s also dropped the fastest time in the world, a 14:20.36. Klosterhalfen (like Hassan, she’s entered in the 1500m and 5000m so it’s still unclear what she will run) has the strength and speed combination that makes her able to adapt to all the possible race scenarios. She hasn’t shown that she can beat Hassan, but even if she stays close she’s in a good spot for a medal. 

This will be the second event of the meet for most of the top competitors. Obiri and Gidey are entered in the 10,000m as well. That might play into Klosterhalfen’s strategy about which event to select. Does she run the 5000m fresh, knowing that Obiri, Gidey, and Hassan will be on their second event?

We’ve seen before how much a distance double can take a toll on an athlete. A dominant 10,000m performance in the first weekend doesn’t guarantee a gold by the end of the meet when the 5000m rolls around. 

The United States will be represented by Karissa Schweizer, Elinor Purrier, and Rachel Schneider. Schweizer has the fastest season-best of 15:01.63, with Schneider (15:06.71) and Purrier (15:08.61) are close behind. 

Women’s 10,000m 

Reigning Champion: Almaz Ayana

Event Schedule: Sept. 28 (Final)

Analysis:

There's an extra layer of mystery here, not just with Hassan, but in the enduring question of Almaz Ayana. The world record holder and reigning champion has only raced once this year. Her 3000m at the Prefontaine Classic didn’t go well, and we haven’t seen her since. If she’s close to the 2017 form, she’s got a good shot at a gold medal; if she looks like she did at Pre, she won’t finish in the top 10. 

The Ethiopian team as a whole is strong. Letesenbet Gidey, Netsanet Gudeta, and Senbere Teferi have the three fastest times of the year. Gidey has been particularly good this year and is a factor in every race she runs. 

Hellen Obiri is better than her 31:25 personal best indicates, and she melds her 5000m speed with the strength that took her to a World Cross Country Championships gold medal in March. Agnes Tirop has the second-fastest 5000m time in the world, but will just run the 10,000m. 

Americans Emily Sisson and Molly Huddle are focused on the marathon at this point in their careers, but can still run very fast over 10,000m. Sisson’s time from the Stanford Invitational of 30:49 is the fourth-fastest in the field. Huddle beat Sisson at USAs and has loads of experience. 

It’s hard to forecast medals without knowing what Hassan will do. She’s only raced one 10,000m on the track (a 31:18 at Payton Jordan), but her half marathon personal best of 1:05:15 and her times at 5000m lead you to draw only one conclusion about how well she could do over 25 laps. 

Women’s Marathon

Reigning Champion: Rose Chelimo

Event Schedule: Sept. 27th-28th (Final)

Analysis:

The women’s midnight marathon commences at the end of the first day. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid- to high-80s, so you may need a random results generator to figure out what will happen. The field does have several top-tier women. 

Ruth Chepngetich is this year’s Dubai champion, running 2:17:08, the third-fastest time in the history of the event. If this race wasn’t run in a sauna, she’d be a big favorite. Veteran Edna Kiplagat was the 2011 and 2013 world champion, and she’s run the last four editions of this race. Lonah Salpeter ran 2:19:46 this year and is one of five women with a personal best under 2:20. Just like with the men, Ethiopia is sending a strong team with Ruti Aga, Roa Dereje, and Shure Demise.

Rose Chelimo is back to defend her title and has a lifetime 2:24:14 

But with the bizarre conditions surrounding the race, the main focal point might end up being the course itself.