2017 DI NCAA Outdoor ChampionshipsJun 4, 2017 by Dennis Young
NCAA Steeple Preview: First-Time Champions Will Be Crowned
NCAA Steeple Preview: First-Time Champions Will Be Crowned
2017 NCAA outdoor championships steeplechase preview
Whoever wins the men's and women's steeples this week in Eugene, they will be first-time NCAA champions. There are clear favorites in both races but neither is a lock. We break down both races below.
Men's Race
Semifinal: Wednesday, 5:02 PM Pacific
Final: Friday, 5:54 PM Pacific
The Favorite
Louisville's Edwin Kibichiy checks all the boxes: he has the fastest time this year, the fastest personal best, and is the top returner from last year's NCAA meet. It would be at least a minor upset if he lost. He struggled a little bit in big meets in 2015, finishing 41st at NCAA XC and ninth in the NCAA steeple after his regular season performances that year pointed to much better races at nationals. But he has seemingly ironed out those yips in the last 12 months, finishing third at nationals in the steeple last June and eighth at NCAA XC in November. He hasn't lost to a collegian in the steeple this year. Don't overthink it--Kibichiy is the clear favorite.
The Contenders
However, there is a big group of men who could take down the Louisville senior, and they've mostly been running well this year. Jamaine Coleman (Eastern Kentucky), Emmanuel Rotich (Tulane), Scott Carpenter (Georgetown), MJ Erb (Ole Miss), Dylan Lafond (Illinois), Benard Keter (Texas Tech), Darren Fahy (Georgetown), Austin O'Neil (UCLA), Troy Reeder (Furman), Bailey Roth (Arizona), and Dylan Blankenbaker (Oklahoma) have all run between 8:32 and 8:36 in their collegiate careers, not that far off Kibichiy's 8:30.
In that group, only Coleman, Rotich, Carpenter, and Erb have run under 8:40 this year. And Coleman, Rotich, and Erb have raced very lightly and barely been tested. Those three are unbeaten against collegians and have only steepled two or three times each. They're well-positioned to pull off an upset in Eugene this week.
Semifinal: Thursday, 5:02 PM Pacific
Final: Saturday, 3:54 PM Pacific
Only two women, Ellie Purrier and Briana Ilarda, return from last year's NCAA meet. There will not only be a new champion but a slew of new All-Americans, though one stud in the field is making her NCAA debut in the event.
The Favorite
New Hampshire's Purrier is a heavy favorite. She has the top season and personal best by over six seconds and is the only returner from the top nine at NCAAs last year. She hasn't lost this outdoor season and her only two losses this track season, period, are her runner-up finish in the NCAA indoor mile and eighth-place finish in a pro field at Millrose. No one else in the field has her steeple strength or mile speed, and she should win this race. There's only one women who could win without it being a massive upset.
And that's Allie Ostrander, who was one of the best long-distance runners in the entire NCAA at the beginning of her freshman year and has shown a few flashes of that potential since. Ostrander was second at NCAA XC in 2015, then dropped out of indoor nationals in 2016 with an injury and missed the next two collegiate track and cross country seasons. In between, she ran 15:24 for eighth place at the Olympic Trials 5K off minimal training.
Her 9:55 steeplechase debut this spring was one of the best American steeple debuts ever; it was faster than the debut of every single woman in last summer's Olympic Trials final. Ostrander doesn't have nearly Purrier's speed--4:18 1500m to 4:29 mile (equal to 4:10 or so)--but she could push the pace and try to run Purrier's legs off. Results services don't list any track races longer than 3000 meters ever run by Purrier, while Ostrander's 8:54/15:21 3K/5K strength indicates that she could throw down a much faster time than 9:55. Purrier's has shown some strength--she was seventh at NCAA cross this fall--but Ostrander is a much better long distance runner. A hot pace could equal an upset on Saturday afternoon.
Three women to watch out for are Tori Gerlach (Penn State), Madeline Strandemo (Minnesota), and Sarah Edwards (Virginia Tech), all of who have faster steeple PRs than Ostrander. In particular, Edwards, a freshman, is on a serious improvement curve. Her three steeples this year have gone 10:38, 10:05, 9:52, the last of which is less than ten seconds off her flat 3K PR. She's one to watch, especially in 2018 and going forward.
Full Field
Men's Race
Semifinal: Wednesday, 5:02 PM Pacific
Final: Friday, 5:54 PM Pacific
The Favorite
Louisville's Edwin Kibichiy checks all the boxes: he has the fastest time this year, the fastest personal best, and is the top returner from last year's NCAA meet. It would be at least a minor upset if he lost. He struggled a little bit in big meets in 2015, finishing 41st at NCAA XC and ninth in the NCAA steeple after his regular season performances that year pointed to much better races at nationals. But he has seemingly ironed out those yips in the last 12 months, finishing third at nationals in the steeple last June and eighth at NCAA XC in November. He hasn't lost to a collegian in the steeple this year. Don't overthink it--Kibichiy is the clear favorite.
The Contenders
However, there is a big group of men who could take down the Louisville senior, and they've mostly been running well this year. Jamaine Coleman (Eastern Kentucky), Emmanuel Rotich (Tulane), Scott Carpenter (Georgetown), MJ Erb (Ole Miss), Dylan Lafond (Illinois), Benard Keter (Texas Tech), Darren Fahy (Georgetown), Austin O'Neil (UCLA), Troy Reeder (Furman), Bailey Roth (Arizona), and Dylan Blankenbaker (Oklahoma) have all run between 8:32 and 8:36 in their collegiate careers, not that far off Kibichiy's 8:30.
In that group, only Coleman, Rotich, Carpenter, and Erb have run under 8:40 this year. And Coleman, Rotich, and Erb have raced very lightly and barely been tested. Those three are unbeaten against collegians and have only steepled two or three times each. They're well-positioned to pull off an upset in Eugene this week.
Full Field
| Athlete | School | SB | PB | Conference '17 | NCAA '16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Kibichiy | Louisville | 8:32.91 | 8:30.71 | 1st, ACC | 3rd |
| Jamaine Coleman | Eastern Kentucky | 8:34.19 | 8:34.19 | 1st, OVC | -- |
| Emmanuel Rotich | Tulane | 8:36.40 | 8:36.40 | 1st, American | -- |
| Scott Carpenter | Georgetown | 8:36.65 | 8:36.65 | 2nd, Big East | Semis |
| MJ Erb | Ole Miss | 8:36.93 | 8:34.13 | 1st, SEC | 8th |
| Troy Fraley | Gonzaga | 8:39.30 | 8:39.30 | -- | -- |
| Aidan Tooker | Syracuse | 8:39.34 | 8:39.34 | 2nd, ACC | HS |
| Bailey Roth | Arizona | 8:39.83 | 8:36.65 | 1st, Pac-12 | Semis |
| Dylan Lafond | Illinois | 8:40.54 | 8:32.74 | 1st, Big 10 | -- |
| Troy Reeder | Furman | 8:40.57 | 8:36.51 | 2nd, SoCon (5K) | 7th |
| Benard Keter | Texas Tech | 8:43.05 | 8:33.75 | 1st, Big 12 | 10th |
| Willy Fink | Eastern Michigan | 8:44.20 | 8:40.60 | 1st, MAC | Semis |
| Darren Fahy | Georgetown | 8:44.61 | 8:35.25 | 1st, Big East | 5th |
| Austin O'Neil | UCLA | 8:44.86 | 8:36.60 | 2nd, Pac-12 | -- |
| Robert Murphy | IUPUI | 8:44.91 | 8:44.91 | 1st, Summit | -- |
| Obsa Ali | Minnesota | 8:45.55 | 8:45.55 | 2nd, Big 10 | -- |
| Dylan Blankenbaker | Oklahoma | 8:45.88 | 8:34.69 | 4th, Big 12 | 4th |
| Khalil Rmidi Kinini | Maryland Eastern Shore | 8:46.62 | 8:46.62 | 1st, MEAC | -- |
| Johannes Motschmann | Iona | 8:46.49 | 8:46.49 | 1st, MAAC | -- |
| Daniel Carney | BYU | 8:48.22 | 8:48.22 | -- | -- |
| Jacob Heslington | BYU | 8:51.78 | 8:51.78 | -- | -- |
| Noah Schutte | Portland | 8:52.22 | 8:52.22 | -- | -- |
| Mitchell Briggs | BYU | 8:52.44 | 8:49.93 | -- | -- |
| Graham Thomas | New Mexico | 8:54.29 | 8:48.07 | 2nd, Mountain West | -- |
Women's Race
Semifinal: Thursday, 5:02 PM Pacific
Final: Saturday, 3:54 PM Pacific
Only two women, Ellie Purrier and Briana Ilarda, return from last year's NCAA meet. There will not only be a new champion but a slew of new All-Americans, though one stud in the field is making her NCAA debut in the event.
The Favorite
New Hampshire's Purrier is a heavy favorite. She has the top season and personal best by over six seconds and is the only returner from the top nine at NCAAs last year. She hasn't lost this outdoor season and her only two losses this track season, period, are her runner-up finish in the NCAA indoor mile and eighth-place finish in a pro field at Millrose. No one else in the field has her steeple strength or mile speed, and she should win this race. There's only one women who could win without it being a massive upset.
The Challenger
And that's Allie Ostrander, who was one of the best long-distance runners in the entire NCAA at the beginning of her freshman year and has shown a few flashes of that potential since. Ostrander was second at NCAA XC in 2015, then dropped out of indoor nationals in 2016 with an injury and missed the next two collegiate track and cross country seasons. In between, she ran 15:24 for eighth place at the Olympic Trials 5K off minimal training.
Her 9:55 steeplechase debut this spring was one of the best American steeple debuts ever; it was faster than the debut of every single woman in last summer's Olympic Trials final. Ostrander doesn't have nearly Purrier's speed--4:18 1500m to 4:29 mile (equal to 4:10 or so)--but she could push the pace and try to run Purrier's legs off. Results services don't list any track races longer than 3000 meters ever run by Purrier, while Ostrander's 8:54/15:21 3K/5K strength indicates that she could throw down a much faster time than 9:55. Purrier's has shown some strength--she was seventh at NCAA cross this fall--but Ostrander is a much better long distance runner. A hot pace could equal an upset on Saturday afternoon.
The Dark Horses
Three women to watch out for are Tori Gerlach (Penn State), Madeline Strandemo (Minnesota), and Sarah Edwards (Virginia Tech), all of who have faster steeple PRs than Ostrander. In particular, Edwards, a freshman, is on a serious improvement curve. Her three steeples this year have gone 10:38, 10:05, 9:52, the last of which is less than ten seconds off her flat 3K PR. She's one to watch, especially in 2018 and going forward.
Full Field
| Athlete | School | SB | Conference '17 | NCAA '16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elinor Purrier | New Hampshire | 9:43.65 | 1st, America East | 3rd |
| Tori Gerlach | Penn State | 9:50.60 | 3rd, Big 10 | -- |
| Madeline Strandemo | Minnesota | 9:51.83 | 1st, Big 10 | -- |
| Sarah Edwards | Virginia Tech | 9:52.89 | 1st, ACC | HS |
| Allie Ostrander | Boise State | 9:55.61 | 2nd, Mountain West (5K) | -- |
| Brianna Ilarda | Providence | 9:56.33 | 1st, Big East | 10th |
| Claire Borchers | Michigan | 9:56.57 | 2nd, Big 10 | -- |
| Kristi Rush | BYU | 9:57.72 | -- | -- |
| Ellie Abrahamson | Wake Forest | 10:00.39 | 2nd, ACC | -- |
| Amy Cashin | West Virginia | 10:01.19 | 2nd, Big 12 | -- |
| Nell Crosby | Columbia | 10:02.02 | 2nd, Ivy | -- |
| Taylor Austin | Indiana State | 10:02.89 | 1st, MVC | -- |
| Katy Kunc | Kentucky | 10:02.95 | 1st, SEC | -- |
| Hope Schmelzle | Northern Illinois | 10:04.17 | 1st, MAC | -- |
| Grayson Murphy | Utah | 10:04.35 | 3rd, Pac-12 | -- |
| Paige Stoner | Syracuse | 10:06.26 | 3rd, ACC | -- |
| Shelby Brown | Ole Miss | 10:06.67 | 3rd, SEC | -- |
| Madison Boreman | Colorado | 10:06.83 | 1st, Pac-12 | HS |
| Sage Hurta | Colorado | 10:07.87 | 2nd, Pac-12 | HS |
| Taylor Janssen | North Dakota St | 10:10.14 | 1st, Summit | -- |
| Ellie Child | Weber State | 10:10.38 | 1st, Big Sky | -- |
| Janelle Lincks | Colorado State | 10:13.68 | 1st, Mountain West | -- |
| Emily Myers | Nevada | 10:14.28 | 2nd, Mountain West | -- |
| Audra DeStefano | Wyoming | 10:20.28 | 3rd, Mountain West | -- |
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