“The time has come,” the walrus said, “to talk of many things.” With a few days left until November 22, 2008, the time has come to make final predictions for DII XC Nationals.  This year’s race is shaping up to have its share of drama. The weather in Slippery Rock, PA looks to be brutal, with a chance of snow the entire week and an estimated high temperature of 39 degrees on race day. The question is how these adverse conditions will affect those runners who are use to warmer weather? There will be other factors, besides the weather, that have the potential to affect the race; below are some other facts to take into consideration when making predictions. Lively debate and commentary is always encouraged . Flotrack is a community.

Abilene Christian’s Nicodemus Naimadu has graduated, making way for a new winner. Last year’s runner-up, Adams State’s Aaron Braun is back and is the top returner.  The question is, can he defeat Harding’s Daniel Kirwa and Chico’s Scott Bauhs? Kirwa has won an impressive number of major races this season, some of them against fast DI competitors including those at the Memphis Twilight. He also led his team to a perfect score of 15 at the South Regional race. Bauhs redshirted last year to gain some experience at the elite   level. Despite having to run a 16k last week due to a course error, Bauhs won the West Regional race.  Let’s not forget the dark horses, such as Alaska Anchorage’s Marko Cheesto, last year’s fourth place finisher Abilene Christian’s Julius Nyango, and Queen’s Oscar Ogwaro.

In the men’s team title race, the latest USTFCCCA poll has Adams State ranked first, followed by Abilene Christian and Harding. It was only last year that Abilene Christian took top honors and Adams State and Western tied for second. Along with Western, Chico rounds out the top five in the poll. Polls always have a margin of error (as we know all too well from predictions for an Al Gore victory) and it will always come down to which team puts together five stellar performances on race day.

In the women’s race, last year’s top two finishers—Seattle Pacific’s Jessica Pixler and Winrose Karunde—are returning. It appears doubtful that we will see a repeat of last year’s race, especially with freshman phenom Shippenburg’s Neely Spence racing for top honors. Some of the dark horses in this race include: University Of Colorado at Colorado Spring’s Shannon Payne, Wayne State’s Rachel Malette, and former DII XC champion Harding’s Esther Komen.

The USTFCCAA poll has ranked last year’s team title winners, Adams State, in the top position. Grand Valley State, Augustana, Western State, and Chico round out the top five in the poll and any of them could challenge for top honors. Last year’s runner-up Seattle Pacific could also have an impact with Jessica Pixler and Jane Larson both vying for All-American honors. Shippensburg is also expected to have an impact in team title hunt.

Best of luck to all of the participators in the National Championship races!  If anyone is swinging by TN to Nationals and has room for an extra passenger let me know.