With nationals only a few days away, I’ll do my best to break down the fields in everything from the 400 on up, and I’ll offer my opinions on who will emerge victorious. On a related note, I strongly recommend making the trip to Columbus if you have the time, as it promises to be host to a great championship meet.
Anyway, I’ll start with the men’s half of the meet. If you're looking for the women's meet, be sure to check out part two.

400
The major storyline here (and in many other events) is whether division-leader Ben Scheetz of Amherst can weather his ridiculous racing schedule—he’s entered in the open 400, open 800, and both relays. We can certainly expect to see him in the finals, but how he will perform Saturday after three races on Friday is up in the air. He looked vulnerable anchoring last weekend’s 4x400, too, so there is reason to believe that this race is wide open. If he slips up, there are plenty of other deserving runners looking to capitalize. Another interesting storyline will be how well the qualifiers on banked tracks do against those who made it to nationals on flat tracks. The top three times in this event (even accounting for the banked track conversion) were all set at the BU Valentine meet, with Justin Allen of Buffalo State and Gino Bisceglia of Cortland St. following right behind Scheetz. I’m inclined to believe that on equal footing, top qualifiers on flat tracks—Chris Malaya (Wash U) and Jon Howard (North Central)—can surprise.
Predictions: Scheetz, Malaya, Allen

800
Due to Scheetz’s quadruple, what should be a run-away now turns into a massive free-for-all, with tons of competitors in the running for top honors. Given that this will be his fifth race in 24 hours, I expect Scheetz to be too worn down to get the win. Jake Waterman of Wabash and 2008 outdoor 800 champion Emmanual Bofa of Whitman will be looking to pounce, but I would be wary about writing off David Litsheim of UW-Stevens Point or Drew Clark of Principia, either. However, I am going to call an upset, as Mike Hutton of St. Thomas appears to be due for a big breakthrough. He’s got the wheels to compete at the end (1:19.54 600, faster than Scheetz’s best at the same distance), and he has significant championship experience (three time All-American). In a race like this, that could make all the difference.
Predictions: Hutton, Litsheim, Scheetz

Mile
Simply looking at the entry times reveals a clear top five, since many top milers opted to stay fresh for other events. However, of these top five, I believe there are only three serious contenders. Fredonia’s Nick Guarino, defending mile and 1500 champion, comes in fresh off a 4:04 runaway victory last weekend, and he also owns the fastest 800 seasonal best of the field (1:50.99), giving us three good reasons why he has to be the favorite. However, Patrick Klein of UW-Platteville will likely be nipping at his heels, and he also has a dangerous kick should it come down to that (1:53.69 on a flat track). The third major contender, in my opinion, is last year’s runner-up Will Yochum of Amherst. Last weekend, he clocked a 2:27.32 1000, and in the process he dispatched the other two sub-4:10 milers in the field (Corsello of Amherst and Turlip of NYU). However, Yochum (as well as Corsello and Turlip) will be in the DMR on Friday night, leaving him at a slight disadvantage relative to our two frontrunners.
Predictions: Guarino, Klein, Yochum

5k
This is the toughest of the men’s races to predict, as it features the top three from cross country as well as numerous other stars. One might suggest that the cross champion would be a logical pick, but Anders Hulleberg of Haverford finds himself buried at tenth on the list and a victim of defeat at the hands of Kent Pecora of Dickinson in his most recent 5k. Division-leader Mike Heymann of Plattsburgh St. would be another favorite, as his 14:13 and 8:17 clockings place him among the top names in all of D3 history. However, his 4:18 showing at the ECAC meet this past weekend did not inspire confidence in his ability to win if it comes down to a final lap, which is often necessary at this stage of competition. This brings us to the rest of the field, highlighted by Geneseo’s Lee Berube, the only other automatic qualifier and owner of the best mile time of the field (4:09.15 seasonal best). Others looking to benefit from a tactical race include David Stilin (UW La Crosse), Ben Sathre (St. Thomas), and Mike Spain (North Central), all of whom have run under 4:12.50. To be perfectly honest, almost anyone in this field has a chance to surprise and come away with the win, as even the last qualifier (Thomas Breitbach of UW Eau Claire) is undefeated this season. Spain, however, has the right combination of speed and strength, is overdue for a national championship, and will have the added team incentive to score some big points, so I’m going to give him the nod over an incredibly talented field.
Predictions: Spain, Berube, Heymann

4x400
This is one of the few events with no automatic qualifiers, and there is no clear favorite amongst the field. McMurry clearly is ready to rumble as they have a solid anchor and just set the division-leading time this past weekend, while second-ranked Ohio Wesleyan is focused solely on the 4x400 as they have no individual qualifiers in the open race. North Central is the only team to have four provisional qualifiers (as well as two of the top seven), so on paper they should be the favorites despite having only the third fastest seed time. Northeast rivals Williams and Amherst will be gunning for these top teams from the slow heat, along with many other contenders.
Predictions: McMurry, North Central, Williams

DMR
Again, despite having apparent favorites, this event is very tough to call. Amherst has far and away the best seed time, but in attempt to score team points, all of their legs will have run earlier in the evening—with Scheetz racing twice within an hour and a half of the start of the race. In addition, Yochum and Corsello have been less impressive since their squad rolled to a division-record 9:49.11 (they ran 4:14 and 4:18, respectively, on BU’s track two weeks ago). However, the logical next choice, MIT, has some significant problems of their own—their 4:05 anchor leg ran a 4:35 mile last weekend after dropping off the pace at ECACs, and their 1200 leg only managed a 2:35 in the 1000. The top contenders then become UW-Oshkosh, Geneseo St., and Bowdoin. Haverford is certainly going for the win, too, as they did not declare their two automatic qualifiers in the mile, opting to save them for the DMR. I have a feeling this race is going to come down to the wire, in which case the mile leg is going to be of utmost importance. If Amherst slips up, look for Milic-Strkalj of Haverford, Tony Dipre of Alleghany, and Lee Berube of Genseo to duke it out to the finish, as these three have the best mile pedigree of the anchor legs. It may seem as though I am leaving out Turlip of NYU, but after having raced earlier in the evening I think he will be at a disadvantage to those fresher and comparably fit competitors. As much as I think that Haverford has no business winning this race as the eighth seed, I would feel foolish picking against them. They are all fresh and clearly focused on this race alone, they have one of the best middle-distance minds in the nation at the helm in coach Tom Donnelly, and they are a championship tested and proven group after coming away with top honors in cross country just a few months earlier.
Predictions: Haverford, Allegheny, Geneseo

Team Title
This looks like another runaway and a repeat for North Central, and La Crosse should easily slide into second, although Amherst is quite an interesting question mark. If Scheetz can maintain his excellence through six events, they could even give North Central a run for it, but I don’t see that happening. I expect them to finish up around thirty points, good enough for a close third but certainly not enough to threaten the Cardinals.
Predictions: North Central, La Crosse, Amherst